Possible hurricane to strike Louisiana/Texas next week (GFS)? - False alarm



  • GFS currently predicts a tropical storm (potentially even a hurricane) to make landfall in Alabama and/or Florida (Pensacola to be exact) on the 14th and 15th of June. It's still a bit to far into the future to be on the radar of hurricane watch systems, but could this be the first US hurricane of the year? The storm is predicted to pass over Western Cuba near the end of the 13th of June/start of the 14th of June as well. Windy predicts a lowest pressure of 998 hPa and wind speeds up to 118 km/h (73 mph).

    0_1528386695219_alabama.png



  • @kevindehulsters

    Not necessarily!
    ECMWF is not predicting such development.
    Also, the latest GFS run is giving for Fri 15 afternoon, a central pressure 1006.

    0_1528443337064_804c0992-fcc5-4b82-ac5e-507d0d2d8a42-εικόνα.png



  • Weird, still nothing visible on ECMWF, but GFS is still showing a very clear hurricane towards the US on the 15th of June, which is now just 6 days away. The current GFS run even goes towards 996 hPa and wind speeds up to 125 km/h (78 mph). The predicted hurricane path has shifted for the worse and it now shows landfall over Louisiana & New Orleans. GFS shows wind speeds up to 108 km/h (67 mph) over New Orleans. The hurricane also seems to move very slow, staying over the Southern part of Louisiana for at least 24 hours. I'm not sure how exact GFS is. but it is weird that GFS is showing this clear hurricane run for a while now and at the same time nothing can be seen on ECMWF.



  • GFS (first picture) vs. ECMWF (second one)
    0_1528536684917_gfs.png 0_1528536688768_ecmwf.png



  • There might also be another Hurricane near Mexico.



  • Now GFS shows that this potential hurricane will go towards Texas and remain along the shoreline for at least 3 days with a pressure of 990 hPa with wind speeds of 150 km/h (93 mph). This is even worse than the Louisiana path. But I think the fact that the predictions are constantly changing shows that the situation is still very unpredictable at the moment.



  • @kevindehulsters
    GFS insists!
    ECMWF ? nothing!
    (Also we have to mention that ECMWF strengthens the storm in the Pacific
    while GFS downgrades it)
    0_1528562275493_fffdcd48-2ba6-4b44-9bab-633f5bb58810-εικόνα.png



  • ... wich one will win (predict better) ?
    We'll know in a few days!



  • With Aletta dissipating very soon it's now time to really look at Bud and the possible Atlantic storm. For Bud GFS predicts a central pressure of 989 hPa and wind speeds up to 162 km/h (101 mph) making it a strong cat 2 hurricane. Meanwhile ECMWF predicts a central pressure of 973 hPa and wind speeds up to 182 km/h (113 mph) making it a cat 3 hurricane. Both predict landfall at Cabo San Lucas in Baja California on Thursday and Friday. The strength of the hurricane during landfall is still not really certain. GFS shows dissipation of the hurricane above Baja California, while ECMWF shows that remnants of the hurricane move towards the mainland of Mexico on Saturday bringing wind speeds up to 70 km/h (44 mph).

    Now to the possible atlantic storm, which is still a mystery. ECMWF still shows no sign of a hurricane (it does show more low pressure zones and higher wind speeds than before). But GFS clearly still shows a storm/hurricane towards Texas next week. Date of landfall has been delayed a bit to Sunday the 17th. Central pressure of this possible storm, which would be named Beryl, is 999 hPa with wind speeds of more than 100 km/h (62 mph) directly over Houston. The discrepancy between GFS and ECMWF is still very weird.

    Also interesting to see is that both GFS and ECMWF show a slight area of low pressure above Colombia on the 19th. With a local sea temperature of 29 degrees Celsius that's definitely enough to create something of a storm, but that's still so far into the future that making predictions isn't that useful.



  • It looks like more and more people are catching on to the fact that a storm could possibly be heading for the US next week. 2 days ago I couldn't find anything on the internet, but now there are multiple videos and articles about weather models predicting a hurricane. Here are a few links:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEaXiQdv4kk
    Uses the 18z model with a simulation made yesterday, which shows even worse conditions for the hurricane. It predicts a central pressure of 963 hPa during landfall with rapid intensification just before landfall. This would be a cat 3 major hurricane landfall in Texas.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6g37A8viSnw
    CMC now also agrees with GFS on a hurricane forming towards the US next week, which means it isn't only GFS doing weird things right now. WW3 now also shows a storm (not a hurricane) towards Texas. CMC also predicts a central pressure of 964 hPa and landfall as a hurricane (probably cat 2). Another run from a day earlier shows a more Eastern path towards Louisiana and Florida with a central pressure of 958 hPa.

    https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/western-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-on-alert-for-possible-tropical-storm-late-next-week/70005178
    Accuweather is now starting to alert people about possible storm formation.

    Now that multiple models are predicting a storm it is getting a bit more serious, but still ECMWF disagrees big time so we'll see.


  • Sailor

    @kevindehulsters
    Possible risk of hurricane seems to have disappeared on last GFS run.

    0_1528704023777_53F38D7A-3BD9-453D-A803-C6FE35AFAC7C.jpeg




  • Sailor

    @gkikas-lgpz
    It confirms what has already been observed.


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