Future hurricane Bud predicted to make landfall in Mexico (ECMWF)

  • While everyone's eyes are now focused on Aletta, which has experiences an unusually fast intensification to a cat 3 hurricane according to nhc, the next tropical storm/hurricane is around the corner. South-East of Aletta a new low pressure zone is forming and a tropical storm will likely arise within 48 hours. The storm is predicted to intensify according to ECMWF to a hurricane on Monday of Tuesday. Lowest pressure reached is 969 hPa with winds up to 180 km/h (112 mph) making it a cat 3 hurricane at its peak. The outer parts of the hurricane might reach Manzanillo, but landfall isn't expected until Friday when it reaches the Baja California Peninsula. Cabo San Lucas will be right in the path of the hurricane. At landfall the hurricane is expected to have a pressure of 986 hPa and winds of at least 140 km/h (87 mph) making it a category 1, possibly cat 2. After the peninsula it is expected to travel Eastwards and make landfall again, this time near Los Mochis and over the Mexican state of Sinaloa. At this second landfall the storm will still have a pressure of 993 hPa and wind speeds up to 120 km/h (75 mph) making second landfall as a cat 1 hurricane on Saturday next week. This is all still a bit far into the future, but it at least shows that Bud will make a higher likelyhood of reaching populated areas than Aletta.0_1528439773636_Bud 1.png 0_1528439777750_Bud 2.png 0_1528439782271_Bud 3.png 0_1528439785451_Bud 4.png

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    ECMWF or GFS?

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