Forecasted vs observed data
Yesterday (14 june) evening, tropical storm "Bud" made a landfall
at the southern tip of the Baja California.
Wind speed was forecasted (by the models) at 40-50 kts.
If we take a look at the OBSERVED values of max wind
as reported by weather stations near
Cabo San Lucas, we see:
Cabo S. Lucas BCS MX, 37kt gust 57kt
and at the nearby location EW6223 Cabo San Lucas, 11 kts gust 29 kts.
Conclusion: We must not easily critisize weather models by comparing forecast data with distinctive observed values.
An observer in the first location may say that the forecasted wind was 100% accurate
while an observer in the nearby location (only 4 milles away) will think that the model
overestimated the wind!
Nice demonstration !
I’m wondering why
- the first weather station report 37.2 kt and there is « 6 » below your yellow arrow.
- the second weather station report 11.3 kt and there is « 7 » below your yellow arrow.
It seems not consistent even if your settings are in Beaufort degree or in m/s.
If I do the same exercise I have the same figure.
« 13 » for 12.7kt observed at the weather station. That’s OK
6 kts stands for "now".
37.2 kt was the max. value for yesterday (14/6) at 15:10
Yes, because you refer to the same time.
My screenshots with the diagram were for past time (yesterday at the time when max wind observed).