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    Forecasted vs observed data

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    • Gkikas LGPZ
      Gkikas LGPZ Moderator last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

      Yesterday (14 june) evening, tropical storm "Bud" made a landfall
      at the southern tip of the Baja California.
      http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_03E/web/basicGifDisplay48.html

      Wind speed was forecasted (by the models) at 40-50 kts.

      If we take a look at the OBSERVED values of max wind
      as reported by weather stations near
      Cabo San Lucas, we see:
      Cabo S. Lucas BCS MX, 37kt gust 57kt
      0_1529039345538_1d68370d-98a9-43aa-9952-9dd448fecc2f-εικόνα.png

      and at the nearby location EW6223 Cabo San Lucas, 11 kts gust 29 kts.
      0_1529039668437_92812022-7cef-4d2e-9b2f-364c647c9dff-εικόνα.png

      Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
      • Gkikas LGPZ
        Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

        Conclusion: We must not easily critisize weather models by comparing forecast data with distinctive observed values.

        An observer in the first location may say that the forecasted wind was 100% accurate
        while an observer in the nearby location (only 4 milles away) will think that the model
        overestimated the wind!
        0_1529040209352_6182e987-b3d7-4559-b4ba-b47e9791ce25-εικόνα.png

        idefix37 2 Replies Last reply Reply Quote 2
        • idefix37
          idefix37 Sailor Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

          @gkikas-lgpz
          Nice demonstration !
          I’m wondering why

          • the first weather station report 37.2 kt and there is « 6 » below your yellow arrow.
          • the second weather station report 11.3 kt and there is « 7 » below your yellow arrow.
            It seems not consistent even if your settings are in Beaufort degree or in m/s.
            If I do the same exercise I have the same figure.
          Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
          • idefix37
            idefix37 Sailor Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

            @gkikas-lgpz
            « 13 » for 12.7kt observed at the weather station. That’s OK

            0_1529052981627_37C86E5B-88D2-4402-AFC8-0ABB2DD945E7.jpeg

            Gkikas LGPZ 2 Replies Last reply Reply Quote 0
            • Gkikas LGPZ
              Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @idefix37 last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

              @idefix37
              6 kts stands for "now".
              37.2 kt was the max. value for yesterday (14/6) at 15:10

              0_1529055289185_33487aab-5306-45d1-bee8-c95a73fded04-εικόνα.png

              1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
              • Gkikas LGPZ
                Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @idefix37 last edited by

                @idefix37
                Yes, because you refer to the same time.
                My screenshots with the diagram were for past time (yesterday at the time when max wind observed).

                1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                • Gkikas LGPZ
                  Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @idefix37 last edited by

                  @idefix37
                  0_1529055641993_a8b9b843-d248-4e19-9b39-3f991be3a7b1-εικόνα.png

                  1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
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