Hurricane formation this/next week



  • Besides tropical storm Daniel, there are currently 2 disturbances in the pacific. Disturbance 1 has a 70% of formation within 48 hours and 90% within the coming 5 days. Disturbance 2 has a 10% formation within 48 hours, but also 90% formation within the coming 5 days. Let's first look what ECMWF has to say about this:

    Disturbance one will result in a tropical storm on Thursday, but this storm won't be very strong and will move to the West. A minimum pressure of 1000 hPa is reached on Friday with wind speeds up to 90 km/h (56 mph). The storm dissipates on Tuesday next week. Disturbance 2 will be a lot more powerful and forms on Thursday/Friday and intensifies into a hurricane on Saturday. Just like disturbance 1 it seems to more to the West with no threat to land. Peak intensity is reached on Tuesday next week with a minimum pressure of 948 hPa and wind speeds up to 235 km/h (146 mph) making it a category 4 hurricane. The hurricane is still present on Thursday next week, the final date of the current predictions, as a category 3.

    Now let's see what GFS has to say about these 2 storms:

    Disturbance one becomes a tropical storm on Friday and reaches peak intensity on Monday with a minimum pressure of 998 hPa and wind speeds up to 120 km/h (75 mph), just barely making it a category 1 hurricane. The hurricane dissipates on Thursday next week and moves to the West, posing no threat to land. Disturbance 2 becomes a tropical storm on Friday/Saturday, reaching hurricane strength on Sunday. Peak intensity is reached on Thursday next week (it might intensify further, but Thursday is the furthest the predictions go so far). The minimum pressure is 984 hPa and wind speeds are up to 200 km/h (125 mph), making it a high-end category 3 hurricane. The system once again moves to the West, be it less than with the ECMWF run. It also moves a bit to the North so a threat to land, while unlikely, can't be ruled out. Interestingly, GFS has another 3rd hurricane forming on Thursday next week. It forms near the South of Mexico and also moves to the West. At the final point of current predictions it has a minimum pressure of 1000 hPa and wind speeds up to 140 km/h (87 mph), making it a category 1 hurricane.



  • There also seems to be a possible disturbance near the coast of North Carolina with a 20% chance of formation over the next 5 days. ECMWF shows a tropical storm formation on Wednesday/Thursday. The storm moves to the North-East, posing no threat to land. It has a minimum pressure of 1002 hPa and wind speeds up to 110 km/h (68 mph).



  • All the models (not just ECMWF & GFS) are so far in agreement on the formation of two new tropical storms in the Pacific this week, with the second one being a lot more powerful than the first one.


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