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    East Saddlebrook Boulevard (AZ)

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    • rlink57R
      rlink57
      last edited by

      The forecast for this particular location is often several degrees lower than other predictions and actual. Not sure why. Was not the case in the winter.

      idefix37I Gkikas LGPZG 2 Replies Last reply Reply Quote 0
      • TheRadarGuyT
        TheRadarGuy Moderator
        last edited by

        @rlink57 When looking at weather models, it is important to compare models cause sometimes one or the other may give false predictions. Have you tried using GFS or NAM for temperature?

        1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
        • idefix37I
          idefix37 Sailor Moderator @rlink57
          last edited by

          @rlink57
          And you don’t say if the forecast is for the current day, the next day or for 10 days ahead. The differences between model forecasts decrease as the forecast date gets closer.
          Then you must consider that ECMWF is updated twice a day only. So it is possible that sometime the forecast is 12h older than other models.

          1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
          • Gkikas LGPZG
            Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @rlink57
            last edited by

            @rlink57
            As you can see here, the forecasted temp. vs observed is not so different
            0_1530781342530_0fc7729b-63f8-4d20-b9b6-63a4592cc6c5-εικόνα.png

            now, lets zoom in
            0_1530781389124_f5545aa2-90c1-4c68-9c82-20bce095a6ca-εικόνα.png

            ... nearby locations may have temperature differences up to 5 degrees.
            So, one observer may say the model is right while, at the same time, another observer thinks (the model) is wrong.

            But, there are also some inaccuracies in models, because of:
            a) sparse grid
            b) urban heat island (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_heat_island )
            c) the "smoothing" of model's forecasted peak values
            0_1530783150812_d985fd71-5e60-42df-b058-d4c35b68b10e-εικόνα.png

            Especially in the summer, the diurnal temperature variation is bigger than in the winter.
            Thus, the "smoothing" make us thinking that the model underestimates max temp
            and overestimates min. temp.

            Gkikas LGPZG 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
            • Gkikas LGPZG
              Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ
              last edited by

              ...
              0_1530815867293_6dd0e556-ffe8-4f43-bcd3-9446ed2fa844-εικόνα.png

              1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
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