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    How to forecast gust wind

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    • A
      artmunich last edited by

      Hi, Thanks for your great work in creating Windy.

      Recently I noticed the spatial pattern of gust wind is very similar to the wind forecast, the difference is only in the magnitude, like in the following figures. Is this the result of multiplying a factor? Or any other mechnism to forecast gust wind?

      Hope for an answer sincerely.
      0_1534735136033_11111.JPG
      0_1534735157405_22222.JPG

      Gkikas LGPZ idefix37 2 Replies Last reply Reply Quote 1
      • Gkikas LGPZ
        Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @artmunich last edited by

        @artmunich
        Is not a multiplying factor.
        Wind gusts are computed by weather models
        using an algorithm which takes into account
        heating in boundary layer, stability conditions, orography, turbulence etc

        1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
        • A
          artmunich last edited by

          @Gkikas-LGPZ Thanks for your answer. Does this mean that you are post-process the model outcome and then show it in Windy? I guess neither ECMWF nor GFS would forecast gust wind.

          Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
          • A
            artmunich last edited by

            @Gkikas-LGPZ In this post(https://community.windy.com/topic/12/what-source-of-weather-data-windy-use), the model output is every three hours for the first 6 days. But isn't gust wind a short period phenomenon which only lasts for several minutes. So is the gust wind prediction a probabilistic one? Or by saying gust wind, it means the maximum wind speed? What's the time resolution of gust wind prediction?

            1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
            • Gkikas LGPZ
              Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @artmunich last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

              @artmunich
              10m wind gust forecast is a meteorological parameter provided by the models.

              For ECMWF :
              http://apps.ecmwf.int/codes/grib/param-db?id=49#grib2

              For GFS, parameter 180,
              http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/docs/on388/table2.html

              windy just visualizes it.

              For more details on ECMWF wind gust
              https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/UER/10+metre+wind+gust

              1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 3
              • A
                artmunich last edited by

                Thanks @Gkikas-LGPZ . I will summarize below in case of others have the same question:
                In ECMWF model output, it's called 10fg(10fg1, 10fg3, 10fg6);
                In GFS model, it's called GUST.
                Gust is defined as the maximum 3 second wind at 10 m height as defined by WMO.

                1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
                • idefix37
                  idefix37 Sailor Moderator @artmunich last edited by

                  @artmunich
                  To illustrate the fact that Gusts are not calculated from Wind by a multiplying factor, some examples here below show it clearly. On Mediterranean coasts the surrounding mountains give some very gusty local winds, for instance in the straight of Gibraltar:

                  0_1534765396338_3D5B5C72-4D5A-4EAB-B4F0-E540355D0165.jpeg

                  Or, on east Greek coast, with summer north wind:

                  0_1534765544007_FF2B8E13-5493-4EF5-A746-BDC441EFE116.jpeg

                  While in more normal conditions, Gusts do not exceed 10 kt compared to Wind:

                  0_1534765650809_7F83977E-C36A-4130-84AD-79E0EA4304BF.jpeg

                  In these 3 examples Wind and Gusts are taken exactly at the same place and with same Wind conditions (18 to 21 kt)

                  A 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
                  • A
                    artmunich @idefix37 last edited by

                    @idefix37 Great, thanks!
                    At first I think at least there must be some gust factor, either a constant or a exponential formula. But now I realized that the gust is directly output from the model. That's even better!

                    1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
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