Cyclone in Arabian sea
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What about cyclone in arabian se coming days
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This cyclone is expected to form in 6 days from now.
Next Sunday (7 Oct) an area of convection 700 km west of India
is expected to develop into a depression.
When (and if) will meet the criteria, it will be named cyclonic storm
by JTWC http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
and by India Meteo. Dept.
Here you can find the extended range outlook
http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/eroc.pdfP.S. Within North Indian Ocean, a tropical cyclone is assigned a name
when it is judged to have reached Cyclonic Storm intensity
with winds of 65 km/h.
Next available name is "Luban".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season#Storm_namesWe'll keep an eye on the situation.
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by now, global models are in disagreement.
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There is (still) a disagreement in global models, but ...
JTWC has upgraded (from LOW to MEDIUM)
the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
in this area (INVEST 92S).
http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
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Today (3 Oct) ... disagreement continues!
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and GFS is forecasting a storm near Chennai for 10 Oct.
Interesting !!!
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Today (4 Oct) , finally, global models came to an agreement !
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ECMWF tracks it to Oman_Yemen border (like the situation of 25 May)
while GFS tracks it northwards.
- 25 May 2018 Tropical cyclone MEKUNU
https://community.windy.com/topic/5995/invest-92a-tropical-cyclone-02a-mekunu
- 25 May 2018 Tropical cyclone MEKUNU
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Updated data based on latest model run (4 Oct/12z for ECMWF and 18z for GFS)
GFS track started converging to ECMWF.
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JTWC started investigating this cyclone (INVEST 99A).
Current Significant Tropical Weather Advisory indicates:
"GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 48-96 HOURS"
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Thank you for updates, on which date, this cyclone is expected to reach in front of Pakistan? What's current status
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@nadeemmirbahar
Here you can track it
https://www.windy.com/-Wind-gusts-gust?gust,2018-10-06-12,17.811,61.348,4,i:pressureThe latest run of ECMWF model tracks it to Oman, no to Pakistan.
Also you'll find updated data , here http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
under the name of INVEST 99A.
If this potential tropical cyclone is assigned a name
we will let you know (for better tracking).
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@gkikas-lgpz thank you for the reply and update
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Today ( 6 Oct ) JTWC says about Invest 99A:
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. .......
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH."
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As forecasted ... a week ago
"Invest 99A" is now a Tropical Cyclone, named "05A".Latest ECMWF run tracks it westwards into the Gulf of Aden.
GFS gives a northwestward track to Oman.JTWC warning graphic tracks it somewhere in between!
P.S. I think you know my opinion about which model will predict better!
https://physicstoday.scitation.org/doi/full/10.1063/PT.3.3046
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A good summary of worldwide cyclones and hurricanes
https://www.cyclocane.com
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Track from ECMWF 9km model wildly different from GFS 22km model which is forecasting scenario for Salalah like Mekunu in May? check it out on Windy. Higher resolution means less real data per grid point so model can stray from reality?
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@vibemill
TC 05A renamed to "Luban".
(as we mentioned a week ago
https://community.windy.com/topic/6852/cyclone-in-arabian-sea/2 )Latest JTWC warning graphic shows a track closer to ECMWF forecast.
That reminds me the track of TC Sagar (17~20 May 2018) rather than Mekunu.
(TC Sagar https://community.windy.com/topic/5984/sagar-cyclone/5 ).
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I just want to mention that ICON Global model, tracks LUBAN northwards
(to Salalah, Oman).
But ... in the past (May 2018) ICON model failed to track correctly
tropical cyclone Mekunu https://community.windy.com/topic/5995/invest-92a-tropical-cyclone-02a-mekunu/10
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@vibemill said in Cyclone in Arabian sea:
Higher resolution means less real data per grid point so model can stray from reality?
Higher resolution means more grid cells on a given area and so, the distance between 2 cells is shorter. (Resolution of ECMWF 9km is higher than that of GFS 23 km). A high resolution model provides more details in the forecast, which is useful in some conditions. But concerning the precision of a cyclone track, I don’t think that the resolution has a real influence.
