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    Cyclone in Arabian sea

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    • sohail
      sohail last edited by

      What about cyclone in arabian se coming days

      Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
      • Gkikas LGPZ
        Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @sohail last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

        @sohail

        This cyclone is expected to form in 6 days from now.

        Next Sunday (7 Oct) an area of convection 700 km west of India
        is expected to develop into a depression.
        When (and if) will meet the criteria, it will be named cyclonic storm
        by JTWC http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
        and by India Meteo. Dept.
        Here you can find the extended range outlook
        http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/eroc.pdf

        P.S. Within North Indian Ocean, a tropical cyclone is assigned a name
        when it is judged to have reached Cyclonic Storm intensity
        with winds of 65 km/h.
        Next available name is "Luban".
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season#Storm_names

        We'll keep an eye on the situation.

        Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 3
        • Gkikas LGPZ
          Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

          by now, global models are in disagreement.
          0_1538370208500_cbdad833-dc35-413c-96fb-99029041e0c7-εικόνα.png

          Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
          • Gkikas LGPZ
            Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

            There is (still) a disagreement in global models, but ...
            JTWC has upgraded (from LOW to MEDIUM)
            the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
            in this area (INVEST 92S).
            http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

            0_1538459444771_d1f20498-b908-4b87-acd3-65733f4b1992-εικόνα.png

            Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
            • Gkikas LGPZ
              Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

              Today (3 Oct) ... disagreement continues!

              0_1538559839622_05532173-9c52-4848-8484-fb63d0d90456-εικόνα.png

              Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
              • Gkikas LGPZ
                Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

                and GFS is forecasting a storm near Chennai for 10 Oct.
                Interesting !!!
                0_1538560174366_a13fc307-16ef-4e92-a07a-5a8220272730-εικόνα.png

                Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                • Gkikas LGPZ
                  Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

                  Today (4 Oct) , finally, global models came to an agreement !

                  0_1538648721633_0ebca658-5a13-4e4e-8187-6027aa13b8b0-εικόνα.png

                  Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                  • Gkikas LGPZ
                    Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

                    ECMWF tracks it to Oman_Yemen border (like the situation of 25 May)
                    while GFS tracks it northwards.
                    0_1538649856882_4197391e-8acd-4ef3-ad7b-0c2c8ed8a4fe-εικόνα.png

                    • 25 May 2018 Tropical cyclone MEKUNU
                      https://community.windy.com/topic/5995/invest-92a-tropical-cyclone-02a-mekunu
                    Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                    • Gkikas LGPZ
                      Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

                      Updated data based on latest model run (4 Oct/12z for ECMWF and 18z for GFS)

                      GFS track started converging to ECMWF.

                      0_1538715210375_2fd87d11-c85d-4c4a-a421-6e53db8a66fa-εικόνα.png

                      Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                      • Gkikas LGPZ
                        Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

                        JTWC started investigating this cyclone (INVEST 99A).
                        Current Significant Tropical Weather Advisory indicates:
                        "GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 48-96 HOURS"

                        1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                        • nadeemmirbahar
                          nadeemmirbahar last edited by

                          Thank you for updates, on which date, this cyclone is expected to reach in front of Pakistan? What's current status

                          Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                          • Gkikas LGPZ
                            Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @nadeemmirbahar last edited by

                            @nadeemmirbahar
                            Here you can track it
                            https://www.windy.com/-Wind-gusts-gust?gust,2018-10-06-12,17.811,61.348,4,i:pressure

                            The latest run of ECMWF model tracks it to Oman, no to Pakistan.

                            Also you'll find updated data , here http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
                            under the name of INVEST 99A.
                            If this potential tropical cyclone is assigned a name
                            we will let you know (for better tracking).

                            nadeemmirbahar 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                            • nadeemmirbahar
                              nadeemmirbahar @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

                              @gkikas-lgpz thank you for the reply and update

                              Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                              • Gkikas LGPZ
                                Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @nadeemmirbahar last edited by

                                Today ( 6 Oct ) JTWC says about Invest 99A:
                                GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM
                                WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
                                OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
                                AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. .......
                                THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
                                WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH."
                                0_1538832038703_cf8302a6-9f19-4572-a41e-c38265875721-εικόνα.png

                                Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                • Gkikas LGPZ
                                  Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

                                  As forecasted ... a week ago
                                  "Invest 99A" is now a Tropical Cyclone, named "05A".

                                  Latest ECMWF run tracks it westwards into the Gulf of Aden.
                                  GFS gives a northwestward track to Oman.

                                  JTWC warning graphic tracks it somewhere in between!

                                  0_1538975488908_bbf56950-24ab-4070-8965-b2345bc14491-εικόνα.png

                                  0_1538977238083_b28a2c53-18ba-4269-b80a-a9202be0257a-εικόνα.png

                                  P.S. I think you know my opinion about which model will predict better!
                                  https://physicstoday.scitation.org/doi/full/10.1063/PT.3.3046

                                  1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
                                  • Tomber42
                                    Tomber42 Moderator last edited by

                                    A good summary of worldwide cyclones and hurricanes
                                    https://www.cyclocane.com

                                    Greetings from Tomber

                                    Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
                                    • V
                                      vibemill last edited by

                                      Track from ECMWF 9km model wildly different from GFS 22km model which is forecasting scenario for Salalah like Mekunu in May? check it out on Windy. Higher resolution means less real data per grid point so model can stray from reality?

                                      Gkikas LGPZ idefix37 2 Replies Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                      • Gkikas LGPZ
                                        Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @vibemill last edited by

                                        @vibemill
                                        TC 05A renamed to "Luban".
                                        (as we mentioned a week ago
                                        https://community.windy.com/topic/6852/cyclone-in-arabian-sea/2 )

                                        Latest JTWC warning graphic shows a track closer to ECMWF forecast.

                                        0_1539060915956_e839fc69-341d-42dd-906e-306876e7b41c-εικόνα.png
                                        That reminds me the track of TC Sagar (17~20 May 2018) rather than Mekunu.
                                        (TC Sagar https://community.windy.com/topic/5984/sagar-cyclone/5 ).

                                        Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
                                        • Gkikas LGPZ
                                          Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

                                          I just want to mention that ICON Global model, tracks LUBAN northwards
                                          (to Salalah, Oman).
                                          0_1539063520671_070120bc-6958-42a8-8428-2f4976056e91-εικόνα.png
                                          But ... in the past (May 2018) ICON model failed to track correctly
                                          tropical cyclone Mekunu https://community.windy.com/topic/5995/invest-92a-tropical-cyclone-02a-mekunu/10

                                          1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                          • idefix37
                                            idefix37 Sailor Moderator @vibemill last edited by

                                            @vibemill said in Cyclone in Arabian sea:

                                            Higher resolution means less real data per grid point so model can stray from reality?

                                            Higher resolution means more grid cells on a given area and so, the distance between 2 cells is shorter. (Resolution of ECMWF 9km is higher than that of GFS 23 km). A high resolution model provides more details in the forecast, which is useful in some conditions. But concerning the precision of a cyclone track, I don’t think that the resolution has a real influence.

                                            1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
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