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    Cyclone in Arabian sea

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    • nadeemmirbahar
      nadeemmirbahar @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

      @gkikas-lgpz thank you for the reply and update

      Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
      • Gkikas LGPZ
        Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @nadeemmirbahar last edited by

        Today ( 6 Oct ) JTWC says about Invest 99A:
        GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM
        WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
        OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
        AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. .......
        THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
        WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH."
        0_1538832038703_cf8302a6-9f19-4572-a41e-c38265875721-εικόνα.png

        Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
        • Gkikas LGPZ
          Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

          As forecasted ... a week ago
          "Invest 99A" is now a Tropical Cyclone, named "05A".

          Latest ECMWF run tracks it westwards into the Gulf of Aden.
          GFS gives a northwestward track to Oman.

          JTWC warning graphic tracks it somewhere in between!

          0_1538975488908_bbf56950-24ab-4070-8965-b2345bc14491-εικόνα.png

          0_1538977238083_b28a2c53-18ba-4269-b80a-a9202be0257a-εικόνα.png

          P.S. I think you know my opinion about which model will predict better!
          https://physicstoday.scitation.org/doi/full/10.1063/PT.3.3046

          1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
          • Tomber42
            Tomber42 Moderator last edited by

            A good summary of worldwide cyclones and hurricanes
            https://www.cyclocane.com

            Greetings from Tomber

            Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
            • V
              vibemill last edited by

              Track from ECMWF 9km model wildly different from GFS 22km model which is forecasting scenario for Salalah like Mekunu in May? check it out on Windy. Higher resolution means less real data per grid point so model can stray from reality?

              Gkikas LGPZ idefix37 2 Replies Last reply Reply Quote 0
              • Gkikas LGPZ
                Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @vibemill last edited by

                @vibemill
                TC 05A renamed to "Luban".
                (as we mentioned a week ago
                https://community.windy.com/topic/6852/cyclone-in-arabian-sea/2 )

                Latest JTWC warning graphic shows a track closer to ECMWF forecast.

                0_1539060915956_e839fc69-341d-42dd-906e-306876e7b41c-εικόνα.png
                That reminds me the track of TC Sagar (17~20 May 2018) rather than Mekunu.
                (TC Sagar https://community.windy.com/topic/5984/sagar-cyclone/5 ).

                Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
                • Gkikas LGPZ
                  Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

                  I just want to mention that ICON Global model, tracks LUBAN northwards
                  (to Salalah, Oman).
                  0_1539063520671_070120bc-6958-42a8-8428-2f4976056e91-εικόνα.png
                  But ... in the past (May 2018) ICON model failed to track correctly
                  tropical cyclone Mekunu https://community.windy.com/topic/5995/invest-92a-tropical-cyclone-02a-mekunu/10

                  1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                  • idefix37
                    idefix37 Sailor Moderator @vibemill last edited by

                    @vibemill said in Cyclone in Arabian sea:

                    Higher resolution means less real data per grid point so model can stray from reality?

                    Higher resolution means more grid cells on a given area and so, the distance between 2 cells is shorter. (Resolution of ECMWF 9km is higher than that of GFS 23 km). A high resolution model provides more details in the forecast, which is useful in some conditions. But concerning the precision of a cyclone track, I don’t think that the resolution has a real influence.

                    1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                    • Gkikas LGPZ
                      Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Tomber42 last edited by

                      @tomber42
                      Yes, cyclocane is a good summary.
                      Unfortunately doesnot include ECMWF forecast data.

                      0_1539114353164_345a1c94-2bc2-433f-9066-1db5613ffa8a-εικόνα.png

                      1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                      • V
                        veekay365 Developers last edited by

                        RSMC New Delhi has predicted a more westward advance for LUBAN in line with the ECWMF model. The Bay of Bengal Cyclone TITLI has made landfall early today morning. A very rare occurrence of simultaneous cyclones in the Northern Indian Ocean Region.

                        1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
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