Cyclone in Arabian sea

[nadeemmirbahar]

@gkikas-lgpz thank you for the reply and update

[Gkikas LGPZ]

Today ( 6 Oct ) JTWC says about Invest 99A:
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. .......
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH."

[Gkikas LGPZ]

As forecasted ... a week ago
"Invest 99A" is now a Tropical Cyclone, named "05A".

Latest ECMWF run tracks it westwards into the Gulf of Aden.
GFS gives a northwestward track to Oman.

JTWC warning graphic tracks it somewhere in between!

P.S. I think you know my opinion about which model will predict better!
https://physicstoday.scitation.org/doi/full/10.1063/PT.3.3046

[Tomber42]

A good summary of worldwide cyclones and hurricanes
https://www.cyclocane.com

[vibemill]

Track from ECMWF 9km model wildly different from GFS 22km model which is forecasting scenario for Salalah like Mekunu in May? check it out on Windy. Higher resolution means less real data per grid point so model can stray from reality?

[Gkikas LGPZ]

@vibemill
TC 05A renamed to "Luban".
(as we mentioned a week ago
https://community.windy.com/topic/6852/cyclone-in-arabian-sea/2 )

Latest JTWC warning graphic shows a track closer to ECMWF forecast.

That reminds me the track of TC Sagar (17~20 May 2018) rather than Mekunu.
(TC Sagar https://community.windy.com/topic/5984/sagar-cyclone/5 ).

[Gkikas LGPZ]

I just want to mention that ICON Global model, tracks LUBAN northwards
(to Salalah, Oman).

But ... in the past (May 2018) ICON model failed to track correctly
tropical cyclone Mekunu https://community.windy.com/topic/5995/invest-92a-tropical-cyclone-02a-mekunu/10

[idefix37]

@vibemill said in Cyclone in Arabian sea:

Higher resolution means less real data per grid point so model can stray from reality?

Higher resolution means more grid cells on a given area and so, the distance between 2 cells is shorter. (Resolution of ECMWF 9km is higher than that of GFS 23 km). A high resolution model provides more details in the forecast, which is useful in some conditions. But concerning the precision of a cyclone track, I don’t think that the resolution has a real influence.

[Gkikas LGPZ]

@tomber42
Yes, cyclocane is a good summary.
Unfortunately doesnot include ECMWF forecast data.

[veekay365]

RSMC New Delhi has predicted a more westward advance for LUBAN in line with the ECWMF model. The Bay of Bengal Cyclone TITLI has made landfall early today morning. A very rare occurrence of simultaneous cyclones in the Northern Indian Ocean Region.