Hurricane Michael has come ashore near Panama City, Florida
In the last hour, Hurricane Michael has made landfall and as a strong Cat-4 hurricane just short of a Cat-5 with 155 mph (250 kph) winds and gusts to 175 mph (280 kph). It is moving at a fast 14 mph (23 kph). The pressure was just measured at 928 mb, one of the lowest ever to hit a US coast even lower than Hurricane Katrina.
There have been already long discussions on a similar topic here.
You will find clear and clever explanation, but unfortunately in the midst of many crazy posts. I like the last post of this long list.
May I add that the ECMWF model winds are calibrated on 10-minutes average when the NHC consider Sustained Winds on 1-minute average. That makes the Sustained Winds 15 % higher than the Mean Winds. Gusts are everywhere based on 3 seconds average.
I made a screenshot of ECMWF forecast on Monday. The max Mean Wind was 144 kph + 15% that’s 100 mph for 1-min Sustained Winds.
That was 2 days before Michael landfall and we know that it has intensified much more than all models expected.
@idefix37 Thanks man! I will read further on the other thread. But really what you are saying makes sense.