Arctic outbreak across the western Europe...
and a strong warm advection across the Balkans and eastern Europe.
snow in low altitudes in France ...
And heavy rain/thunderstorms/snow in south Switzerland and Italy.
Together with ADRIAN storm in western Mediterranean Sea up to 10Bf with Gusts up to 80kt on Corsica, now in red warning as shown on first post.
the warm advection across the Balkans and eastern Europe is here to stay
(at least for a week)
and ... the bigger picture ... +2.5 degrees temp. anomaly in the Arctic region
..... +4 degrees !!! for Arctic Ocean.
A new shipping highway opens !
Northern Sea Route is becoming more accessible to ships
as climate change reduces the amount of sea ice.
But it's an anomaly where it's already -10 to -30 deg C.
-10 to -30 C are the observed values.
Anomaly is the deviation from the climate mean.
During summer the temp. anomaly is almost zero.
But, all the winters (from year 2000) show positive values.
That indicates a warmer winter than normal (for Arctic region).
In which case it would likewise indicate early onset, i.e. long, cold, snowy, per 2017-2018 NH.
Although I'm sceptical about seasonal forecasts,
the indications for my area of interest (Greece/Balkans)
are for a dry winter with normal temperatures.