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    snow or not snow?

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    • emre33tr
      emre33tr last edited by

      whether Jon or not, snow is what makes earth beautiful.

      1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
      • emre33tr
        emre33tr last edited by

        How accurate is your snow forecast? yesterday there was no snow in 10 day forecast. 2 days ago there was snow in the same place. today it is snow again. im really confused with the stats.

        Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
        • Gkikas LGPZ
          Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @emre33tr last edited by

          @emre33tr
          Forecast accuracy decreases at the end of 10 days forecast period.
          3 or 5 days forecast has high accuracy.

          You say:
          A. "yesterday there was no snow in 10 day forecast."
          So, model forecasts no snow for the period 27 Dec~5 Jan.

          B. "2 days ago there was snow in the same place."
          So, model forecasted snow for the period 25 Dec~3 Jan.
          but only for the first 2 days (25,26 Dec) of the 10 days forecast period.

          C. "today it is snow again."
          So, there is snow forecast for the last days of the 10 days period (5,6 Jan).

          For more details, start-stop time of snowfall,
          consult this map
          https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?rain,2019-01-05-18,40.145,43.638,5,i:pressure

          1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 4
          • emre33tr
            emre33tr last edited by

            thank you for the explanation @Gkikas-LGPZ
            :)

            1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
            • emre33tr
              emre33tr last edited by

              yet it is still impossible to have that much "snow depth" in my area. 3 day and 5 day model is more realistic. 10 day modelling is just wishes :)

              idefix37 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
              • idefix37
                idefix37 Sailor Moderator @emre33tr last edited by idefix37

                @emre33tr

                I think the snow depth is theoretical. After a consequent fall, the snow settles under its own weight and with the variations of temperature in the snow layer...
                I don’t think the weather model takes into account the transformation and contraction of the snow layer.
                Then a 10-days forecast for snow is even less reliable than a 10-days forecast of rain because 1 or 2° of temperature error can make a big difference.

                Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                • emre33tr
                  emre33tr last edited by

                  @idefix37 i agree. tnx 4 the explanation.

                  1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                  • Gkikas LGPZ
                    Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @idefix37 last edited by

                    @idefix37
                    Do you know which parameter is used by windy?

                    Snow depth water equivalent
                    https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/TIGGE/Snow+depth+water+equivalent

                    or

                    Snow fall water equivalent
                    https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/TIGGE/Snow+fall+water+equivalent

                    P.S. Have a Happy New Year's Day!

                    idefix37 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                    • idefix37
                      idefix37 Sailor Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

                      @gkikas-lgpz
                      Thanks for the info.
                      Happy New Year to you !!

                      1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                      • emre33tr
                        emre33tr last edited by

                        happy new year all.

                        Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                        • Gkikas LGPZ
                          Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @emre33tr last edited by

                          @emre33tr
                          with a lot of snow in our area!
                          0_1546508861691_15edaeef-7a22-47e6-a894-17d4d46dbbe9-εικόνα.png

                          emre33tr 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                          • emre33tr
                            emre33tr @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

                            @gkikas-lgpz hope it proves to be correct. when i search by snow depth from the right bar this map comes. but when i click on the city name another page is coming from the bottom. and that page is showing more rain than snow. there is a mistake with the map i think. thank you for the info :)

                            Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                            • Gkikas LGPZ
                              Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @emre33tr last edited by

                              @emre33tr
                              Snow is expected in Istanbul for the next few hours.
                              Temperature -6C at the level of 850 hPa (1500m) is critical for snow forecast even at sea level.
                              0_1546582958333_4f76f0a0-5233-4b6c-8d59-f742da2206e6-εικόνα.png

                              1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
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