Cyclone IDAI and Cyclone Kenneth -> Mozambique



  • Watched this system resolve for most of the past week. Location and path has been fairly consistent. A strong symmetric wet system. It goes inland then backs out again about where it went in, thus doubling the rainfall and timeframe.

    Screenshot_2019-03-10 Windy as forecasted(3).png
    Screenshot_2019-03-10 Windy as forecasted(2).png
    Screenshot_2019-03-10 Windy as forecasted(4).png
    Screenshot_2019-03-10 Windy as forecasted(8).png

    Last image:
    20190310.1100.msg1.x.vis1km.18SIDAI.55kts-982mb-172S-428E.100pc.jpg

    The city of Beira (pop. 530,000).
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beira,_Mozambique
    BeiraFromTheISS.jpg



  • Track in 12 hour increments:

    Screenshot_2019-03-11 Windy as forecasted(1).png
    Screenshot_2019-03-11 Windy as forecasted(2).png
    Screenshot_2019-03-11 Windy as forecasted(3).png
    Screenshot_2019-03-11 Windy as forecasted(6).png



  • 12 hour time intervals for the displayed track locations.

    TC Idai @ 937 hPa and 115kt
    20190311.1131.f15.x.vis1km.18SIDAI.115kts-937mb-176S-426E.091pc.jpg

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  • TC IDAI has weakened to about 961hPa and 90kts (estimated via Dvorak intensity analysis methods https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/06velden.pdf ).

    Screenshot_2019-03-12 Windy as forecasted.png
    Screenshot_2019-03-12 Windy as forecasted(1).png
    Screenshot_2019-03-12 Windy as forecasted(2).png
    Screenshot_2019-03-12 Windy as forecasted(3).png
    Screenshot_2019-03-12 Windy as forecasted(4).png



  • TC IDAI is Less than 36 hours to an eye landfall at or very near the city of Beira. It has been going through an eye-wall replacement cycle and is beginning to show signs of re-intensification (as is forecast).

    20190313.0345.f17.x.vis1km.18SIDAI.95kts-966mb-193S-402E.100pc.jpg
    20190313.0730.msg1.x.vis1km_high.18SIDAI.95kts-966mb-194S-395E.100pc.jpg

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    Screenshot_2019-03-13 Windy as forecasted.png
    5.png



  • Cyclone IDAI's eye-wall replacement has fully completed and has re-intensified into a large symmetric wet system. The south western quadrant of the eye-wall will come ashore at Beira in about 20 hours. The most recent satellite imagery (less than 6 hours old):

    Infrared
    20190313.201000.terra.modis.Infrared.tc1918SIDAI.covg100p0.modislance.res1km.jpg

    Water Vapor
    20190313.201000.terra.modis.Vapor.tc1918SIDAI.covg100p0.modislance.res1km.jpg
    Source: NRL Tropical Cyclone Page http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

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    Tide forecast for Beira:
    https://www.tide-forecast.com/locations/Beira-Mozambique/tides/latest



  • @WXcycles
    Keep in mind that wave model has a 13 km resolution (WAM) or even 22km (wavewatch).
    When you zoom a lot, wave heights are not so accurate.



  • @Gkikas-LGPZ

    I figure a forecast which indicates a big local problem with sea and wave heights is the message to emphasize at this point. ;-)

    Note that the river mouths and bay are about 16 km across:
    Screenshot_2019-03-14 Windy as forecasted.png



  • Tropical Cyclone IDAI - 105 kt winds with 130 kt gusts @ 944 hPa

    Around 7 hours to landfall at time of posting.

    The track plot point intervals are spaced 6 hours apart.

    20190314.0300.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.18SIDAI.105kts-944mb-197S-379E.100pc.jpg
    1b.png
    20190314.070500.terra.modis.Vapor.tc1918SIDAI.covg68p3.modislance.res1km.jpg

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  • Sailor

    @WXcycles
    In addition to high waves and tide, RSMC La Réunion forecast a storm surge near 4m in the southern semi-circle, which could reach 6m in the river mouth Pungwe where Beira is located (about half of a million inhabitants). They say that storm surge could hit this area at same time as high tide, which is fortunately only 1m above mean sea level at the moment.
    It‘s a very bad scenario.



  • @idefix37

    Thanks for that. Looking like an ugly situation for people there, I hope they got enough warning. That eye appears to be around 100 km across with a wide CDO band so it's going to drag a lot of water. Dvorak indication of 130 kt gusts at present.



  • The sun just went down and the tide reaches its highest level in 2 hrs and 15 mins.

    Beira Tide:
    https://www.tide-forecast.com/locations/Beira-Mozambique/tides/latest

    Latest satellite images:

    A 20190314.1530.msg1.x.ir1km.18SIDAI.100kts-962mb-199S-363E.100pc.jpg
    B 20190314.1442.f18.x.vis1km_high.18SIDAI.100kts-962mb-199S-363E.100pc.jpg

    Screenshot_2019-03-15 Google Maps.jpg
    Screenshot_2019-03-15 Google Maps(1).jpg

    The whole city is a huge collection of haphazard slums that have next to no streets, built on a gigantic swamp with a city draped over the top of it. If you look closely you can see successive older major storm-surge scour-lines hundreds of meters inland, all along the NE beach frontage. Roads are mostly dirt in the area, the rail line into the city is likely to be cut due to major flooding, plus the port and local boats will be out of commission due to the surge and waves. Leaving a battered airport to provide limited outside relief and medical evacuation. The numerous food and cropping plots are likely to be flooded by salt water as canals cross-cut the city.



  • TC IDAI - 95 kt winds and 115 kt gusts @ 952 hPa

    A direct hit on Beira City, Dondo City and Buzi township with the most unfortunate location and timing to maximize the surge, wind, wave and flooding effects within the very low-laying city of Beira. The second-half of the storm has the worst onshore weather within it on satellite imagery so the worst effects will be occurring over the next 3 to 6 hours.

    The currently affected area contains about 1 million people once you've counted all the surrounding small cities and towns, within about 100km of Beira. The local time is currently, 2:24 AM, on Friday, March 15, 2019, Central Africa Time (CAT) +0200 UTC. The worst of the storm effects should begin to subside as dawn light returns.

    There is a 6-hourly spacing between the track-plot points.

    20190314.205500.terra.modis.Infrared.tc1918SIDAI.covg62p6.modislance.res1km.jpg
    20190314.2223.gcomw1.x.geoir.18SIDAI.90kts-956mb-196S-348E.043pc.jpg
    20190314.2230.msg1.x.ir1km.18SIDAI.95kts-952mb-197S-355E.100pc.jpg
    20190314.2300.msg1.x.ir1km.18SIDAI.95kts-952mb-197S-355E.100pc.jpg
    20190314.2326.f15.x.ir1km.18SIDAI.90kts-956mb-196S-348E.082pc.jpg
    20190315.0318.f17.x.ir1km.18SIDAI.90kts-956mb-197S-348E.099pc.jpg
    20190315.0700.msg1.x.ir1km.18SIDAI.75kts-967mb-195S-341E.100pc.jpg
    20190315.075000.terra.modis.Infrared.tc1918SIDAI.covg100p0.modislance.res1km.jpg

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    ECMWF model demonstrated remarkable track prediction accuracy up to 5 days in advance.

    The tide's flow (which I'm sure didn't go out overnight) is again coming in as the worst of the on-shore storm-surge flooding is taking place. The next HIGH TIDE in Beira is at 10:23 AM which is in about 6 hrs from now.

    https://www.tide-forecast.com/locations/Beira-Mozambique/tides/latest



  • @WXcycles
    here you can find high resolution images for the area.
    https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-playground/?source=S2&lat=-19.722756810828194&lng=34.72297668457031&zoom=10&preset=1-NATURAL-COLOR&layers=B01,B02,B03&maxcc=20&gain=1.0&gamma=1.0&time=2018-09-01|2019-03-14&atmFilter=&showDates=false

    They are images in a "Google-like" resolution and are updated every day.
    After "Idai" passage will have a clear vision of the flooded areas.



  • here you can find the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS)
    http://www.globalfloods.eu/glofas-forecasting/
    The flood severity for the area is very high
    (purple indicates probability to exceed a 20 year return period).



  • Plot points are 6 hours apart.

    Local Time: 10:35 AM, Friday, March 15, 2019 Central Africa Time (CAT) +0200 UTC

    TC IDAI 75kt winds @ 967mb
    20190315.075000.terra.modis.Infrared.tc1918SIDAI.covg100p0.modislance.res1km.jpg

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  • Sailor

    @WXcycles said in Cyclone IDAI -> Mozambique:

    ECMWF model demonstrated remarkable track prediction accuracy up to 5 days in advance.

    I fully agree with you. The ECMWF forecast has been very accurate. The track prediction has been stable and precise. I have not checked GFS every time, but 2 days ago it was late on landing schedule.



  • Cyclone Leon–Eline - Feb 2000

    Cyclone_Leon-Eline_22_feb_2000_0411Z.jpg

    " ... Late on February 17, Eline made landfall near Mahanoro, Madagascar, with 10‑minute winds of 165 km/h (103 mph). The storm rapidly weakened over land, but restrengthened in the Mozambique Channel to reach peak 10‑minute winds of 185 km/h (115 mph). On February 22, Eline made landfall about 80 km (50 mi) south of Beira, Mozambique, near peak intensity, and quickly weakened over land. ... ... Before Eline's final landfall, Mozambique was experiencing the worst floods since 1951, killing about 150 people. The additional rainfall and flooding from Eline created the country's worst natural disaster in a century. The combined effects destroyed over 250,000 ha (620,000 acres) of crop fields and killed 40,000 cattle. Eline's passage disrupted ongoing relief efforts. High levels along the Limpopo River isolated the town of Xai-Xai, with water levels along the river reaching as high as 11 m (36 ft) above normal in some areas, as well as 15 km (9.3 mi) wide. A dam broke along the river, flooding the town of Chokwe in the middle of the night and trapping several unprepared residents; this accounted for nearly half of the death toll. About 55 people drowned in Sofala Province after rescue helicopters arrived too late to save them. Around 20,000 people in the capital city of Maputo lost their homes. In addition to the floods, strong winds blew away many roofs and some entire houses made of mud. The combined effects of the preceding floods and Eline left about 329,000 people displaced or homeless, caused about 700 deaths, and damage estimated at $500 million (USD). The cyclone and the floods disrupted much of the economic progress Mozambique had made in the 1990s since the end of its civil war. ... "

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Leon–Eline

    I have a feeling this one will turn out to be quite a bit worse.



  • Screenshot_2019-03-16 Windy as forecasted.png
    Screenshot_2019-03-16 Windy as forecasted(1).png


  • Sailor

    @WXcycles
    There are very few news about damages and deaths in Mozambique. The reason is the damages to communication installations.

    https://clubofmozambique.com/news/just-in-communications-cut-after-cyclone-idai-lashes-beira-city-flooded-and-infrastructure-damaged-preliminary-reports/



  • @idefix37

    I expect it'll take about 3 to 4 more days to get an idea of what's occurred. The heavy rain over the inland areas to the west appears to ease off within about five days and go north, so will complicate recon flights until then. Plus the Beira airport will have been hammered plus no power. It’s a real pity so few grasped what happened, but how often does anyone hear news from Mozambique? So it'll be days before global media begin to wake up. If I was the Mozambique government I'd be making every possible effort to get the military to take media in there and get as much detailed footage as possible, so the awareness can be raised via video earlier.

    Screenshot_2019-03-16 Windy as forecasted.png
    Screenshot_2019-03-17 Windy as forecasted.png

    I remember when Hurricane Katrina hit, before the storm was even passed-on some people asserted that it had all been a hyped-up non-event. I said it would be at least three days until we knew if New Orleans was OK. And it took three days for the failed levee news and video of the breach and flooding to emerge. Even modern countries with massive resources take three days to re-establish recon and basic emergency communications again after a major cyclone, so I'd give Mozambique most of a week here, especially given the storm remnant remains close. As we said before the landfall, it’s an ugly situation.


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