Cyclone IDAI and Cyclone Kenneth -> Mozambique
TC IDAI is Less than 36 hours to an eye landfall at or very near the city of Beira. It has been going through an eye-wall replacement cycle and is beginning to show signs of re-intensification (as is forecast).
Cyclone IDAI's eye-wall replacement has fully completed and has re-intensified into a large symmetric wet system. The south western quadrant of the eye-wall will come ashore at Beira in about 20 hours. The most recent satellite imagery (less than 6 hours old):
Source: NRL Tropical Cyclone Page http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
Tide forecast for Beira:
Keep in mind that wave model has a 13 km resolution (WAM) or even 22km (wavewatch).
When you zoom a lot, wave heights are not so accurate.
I figure a forecast which indicates a big local problem with sea and wave heights is the message to emphasize at this point. ;-)
Note that the river mouths and bay are about 16 km across:
Tropical Cyclone IDAI - 105 kt winds with 130 kt gusts @ 944 hPa
Around 7 hours to landfall at time of posting.
The track plot point intervals are spaced 6 hours apart.
In addition to high waves and tide, RSMC La Réunion forecast a storm surge near 4m in the southern semi-circle, which could reach 6m in the river mouth Pungwe where Beira is located (about half of a million inhabitants). They say that storm surge could hit this area at same time as high tide, which is fortunately only 1m above mean sea level at the moment.
It‘s a very bad scenario.
Thanks for that. Looking like an ugly situation for people there, I hope they got enough warning. That eye appears to be around 100 km across with a wide CDO band so it's going to drag a lot of water. Dvorak indication of 130 kt gusts at present.
The sun just went down and the tide reaches its highest level in 2 hrs and 15 mins.
Latest satellite images:
The whole city is a huge collection of haphazard slums that have next to no streets, built on a gigantic swamp with a city draped over the top of it. If you look closely you can see successive older major storm-surge scour-lines hundreds of meters inland, all along the NE beach frontage. Roads are mostly dirt in the area, the rail line into the city is likely to be cut due to major flooding, plus the port and local boats will be out of commission due to the surge and waves. Leaving a battered airport to provide limited outside relief and medical evacuation. The numerous food and cropping plots are likely to be flooded by salt water as canals cross-cut the city.
TC IDAI - 95 kt winds and 115 kt gusts @ 952 hPa
A direct hit on Beira City, Dondo City and Buzi township with the most unfortunate location and timing to maximize the surge, wind, wave and flooding effects within the very low-laying city of Beira. The second-half of the storm has the worst onshore weather within it on satellite imagery so the worst effects will be occurring over the next 3 to 6 hours.
The currently affected area contains about 1 million people once you've counted all the surrounding small cities and towns, within about 100km of Beira. The local time is currently, 2:24 AM, on Friday, March 15, 2019, Central Africa Time (CAT) +0200 UTC. The worst of the storm effects should begin to subside as dawn light returns.
There is a 6-hourly spacing between the track-plot points.
ECMWF model demonstrated remarkable track prediction accuracy up to 5 days in advance.
The tide's flow (which I'm sure didn't go out overnight) is again coming in as the worst of the on-shore storm-surge flooding is taking place. The next HIGH TIDE in Beira is at 10:23 AM which is in about 6 hrs from now.
here you can find high resolution images for the area.
They are images in a "Google-like" resolution and are updated every day.
After "Idai" passage will have a clear vision of the flooded areas.
here you can find the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS)
The flood severity for the area is very high
(purple indicates probability to exceed a 20 year return period).
Plot points are 6 hours apart.
Local Time: 10:35 AM, Friday, March 15, 2019 Central Africa Time (CAT) +0200 UTC
TC IDAI 75kt winds @ 967mb
@WXcycles said in Cyclone IDAI -> Mozambique:
ECMWF model demonstrated remarkable track prediction accuracy up to 5 days in advance.
I fully agree with you. The ECMWF forecast has been very accurate. The track prediction has been stable and precise. I have not checked GFS every time, but 2 days ago it was late on landing schedule.
Cyclone Leon–Eline - Feb 2000
" ... Late on February 17, Eline made landfall near Mahanoro, Madagascar, with 10‑minute winds of 165 km/h (103 mph). The storm rapidly weakened over land, but restrengthened in the Mozambique Channel to reach peak 10‑minute winds of 185 km/h (115 mph). On February 22, Eline made landfall about 80 km (50 mi) south of Beira, Mozambique, near peak intensity, and quickly weakened over land. ... ... Before Eline's final landfall, Mozambique was experiencing the worst floods since 1951, killing about 150 people. The additional rainfall and flooding from Eline created the country's worst natural disaster in a century. The combined effects destroyed over 250,000 ha (620,000 acres) of crop fields and killed 40,000 cattle. Eline's passage disrupted ongoing relief efforts. High levels along the Limpopo River isolated the town of Xai-Xai, with water levels along the river reaching as high as 11 m (36 ft) above normal in some areas, as well as 15 km (9.3 mi) wide. A dam broke along the river, flooding the town of Chokwe in the middle of the night and trapping several unprepared residents; this accounted for nearly half of the death toll. About 55 people drowned in Sofala Province after rescue helicopters arrived too late to save them. Around 20,000 people in the capital city of Maputo lost their homes. In addition to the floods, strong winds blew away many roofs and some entire houses made of mud. The combined effects of the preceding floods and Eline left about 329,000 people displaced or homeless, caused about 700 deaths, and damage estimated at $500 million (USD). The cyclone and the floods disrupted much of the economic progress Mozambique had made in the 1990s since the end of its civil war. ... "
I have a feeling this one will turn out to be quite a bit worse.
There are very few news about damages and deaths in Mozambique. The reason is the damages to communication installations.
I expect it'll take about 3 to 4 more days to get an idea of what's occurred. The heavy rain over the inland areas to the west appears to ease off within about five days and go north, so will complicate recon flights until then. Plus the Beira airport will have been hammered plus no power. It’s a real pity so few grasped what happened, but how often does anyone hear news from Mozambique? So it'll be days before global media begin to wake up. If I was the Mozambique government I'd be making every possible effort to get the military to take media in there and get as much detailed footage as possible, so the awareness can be raised via video earlier.
I remember when Hurricane Katrina hit, before the storm was even passed-on some people asserted that it had all been a hyped-up non-event. I said it would be at least three days until we knew if New Orleans was OK. And it took three days for the failed levee news and video of the breach and flooding to emerge. Even modern countries with massive resources take three days to re-establish recon and basic emergency communications again after a major cyclone, so I'd give Mozambique most of a week here, especially given the storm remnant remains close. As we said before the landfall, it’s an ugly situation.
This is going to be quite some flood, the area was already wet down a week before the cyclone hit and most of this new rain will fall within the next 5 days. It appears to be backing-out the way that it was originally forecast too move ENE (i.e. about 7 days back at the top of the thread).
according to http://www.globalfloods.eu/glofas-forecasting/
100% of buildings in the city have been damaged and a huge number of those destroyed.
Beira looks like a 'war zone' after cyclone Idai: rescue team
18 March 2019 - 08:22
By Nico Gous
Beira in Mozambique looks like a “war zone” in the aftermath of cyclone Idai, which claimed at least 100 lives. That is what Dylan Meyrick from IPSS Medical Rescue wrote on Facebook on Sunday evening.
“Beira resembles a war zone! 100% of buildings in the city have been damaged and a huge number of those destroyed. The local population living in the rural areas have been hardest hit. Entire villages have been washed away. It has been humbling to see how these people have lost the very little that they had but are resilient and are determined to survive,” Meyrick said.
“There is no electricity and as a result infrequent water, no cellular service and no internet. The EN6 which is the only road in and out of Beira has been destroyed by flood waters about 70km from the city. This morning we estimated that up to 2,000 people need rescuing as the flood waters continue to rise.”
Cyclone Idai has wrecked havoc across Mozambique and Zimbabwe, leaving 400,000 people displaced. Rescue teams have worked up to 18 hours a day, Meyrick said. “It has been a life-changing experience for the members to have to decide who to rescue and who to leave behind. In a profession where they have to deal with situations on a daily basis that no person should, this is probably the most difficult that we have encountered.”
Another report from late yesterday:
Cyclone Idai claims 48 lives in Mozambique, 39 in Zimbabwe
Africa / 17 March 2019, 4:52pm
UN World Food Program kicks off from a very low-base and a huge need.
UN standing with Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique during Cyclone
Monday, 18 March 2019, 3:34 pm
Press Release: UN News
"... According to the World Food Programme (WFP), preliminary projections indicate that at least 1.7 million people were affected in the direct-path of the cyclone in Mozambique, with a further 920,000 in Malawi. A spokesperson for WFP said on Sunday that teams had been active on the ground in all three countries, planning to target around 650,000 with food assistance in Malawi, and 600,000 in Mozambique. ... WFP said it would be scaling-up provision of life-saving services for the treatment of moderate-acute malnutrition in children up to 5-years of age, in communities affected by the cyclone. A WFP plane with 20 tons of emergency food assistance arrived this weekend in Mozambique; 30 WFP funded boat pilots were mobilized, and staff and material have been deployed in Beira, Zambezia and Tete. In the coming days , WFP said it will be able to scale up the response with larger distribution of food."
Indian Navy sends three ships
India to provide Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) support to Mozambique
March 18, 2019
In response to a request from the Republic of Mozambique that is hit by a tropical cyclone ‘IDAI’ of Category 4, causing loss of lives and severe damage to properties in Central and Northern part of Mozambique, Government of India has decided to divert three Indian Naval Ships (INS Sujatha, INS Shardul & INS Sarathi) to the port city of Beira to provide immediate Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) to the affected people. Indian Naval Ships will provide relief material in the form of food, clothes and medicine to the affected people. In addition, the ships have 3 medical practitioners and 5 nurses to provide immediate medical help.
In this hour of tragedy, Government of India stands ready to extend support to the affected people. India has been extending humanitarian assistance to Mozambique and had provided 10 million dollars for food grains in 2017, after it suffered food shortage as a result of natural calamities.
March 18, 2019