Cyclone IDAI and Cyclone Kenneth -> Mozambique



  • Beira situation not improving.

    'It's not safe anywhere:' Mozambique cyclone scattered lives

    2019-03-30 15:00

    We didn't know his name or even see his face. But amid the grim scene of a cyclone-devastated village, the little boy stood out because he danced. He skipped down the muddy street in Buzi to music only he could hear, oblivious to the suffering around him, at least for a while. He was barefoot and in muddy shorts. He likely wore the only clothing he had left. Like many children in the wake of Cyclone Idai in Mozambique, he was alone. But he seemed to have a destination, and that put him well ahead of most. He was almost certainly headed to a makeshift shelter or the concrete floor of a school, now crammed with wet laundry, cooking fires and displaced people.

    Life there was perilous. At one school, another small boy lay curled up in a doorway, dozing next to a pile of still-warm ashes. Hundreds of thousands of uprooted lives, many of them children, have been scattered by the storm that roared in on March 14. Homes were washed away by rivers that burst their banks, sending waters rushing over a vast stretch of central Mozambique, as high as the tops of trees. Survivors described opening the doors of their homes to water that reached their necks. They raced to gather their families and scramble onto rooftops. There they stayed, sometimes for days. They drank the water around them, as filthy as it was, to stay alive.

    On one rooftop a woman gave birth. The baby lived. Finally, in some cases, a helicopter appeared. It dropped biscuits to eat. And it posed an immediate and painful decision: Whom to save first? Some families were ripped apart as women or children, or the injured, were whisked away. What remains, more than two weeks after the cyclone made landfall, is a sodden landscape of disconnectedness and grief.

    Phones barely ring or ping, if at all. Internet service was severed and is only now inching back with the aid of emergency responders. In flashes of hope, people have scouted out the highest points on the flat landscape, waving cellphones in the air: A three-story building in Buzi. A highway overpass in the city of Beira, home to 500,000 and now 90 percent destroyed. Those who couldn't find a signal were despondent over the chances of finding missing loved ones.

    Officials who are pressed for estimates of the number of missing people don't even try. Even the death toll, now above 700 in Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi, is called very preliminary. It may never be known. The numbers offered by humanitarian agencies have become a blur. Some 1.8 million people in urgent need. Nearly 136,000 people displaced in worst-hit Mozambique alone. More than 50,000 homes there destroyed.

    In the port city of Beira, fishing boats pulled up one by one on the beach carrying survivors ashore from Buzi and other places. Children huddled, damp and bewildered, until aid workers drove them away in the back of a pickup truck. They were destined for one of many impromptu displacement camps, likely a school. Conditions in the camps are often squalid, with little clean water, sanitation or medical supplies. A cholera outbreak has begun, and is gaining speed. Amid the chaos, families still search for children, parents, spouses, often in vain.

    Some survivors stood on the beach in Beira and watched the fishing boats arrive, looking for a familiar face in the crowd. Zacarias Mauta stood alone. He had come from Buzi, where he survived by climbing a tree. Four days later a helicopter plucked him up and brought him to Beira, a city he had never seen. He wants to reunite with his family, including four children under the age of 6. He hopes they were taken to Beira as well but does not know. "I wanted to hold my family but I couldn't," he said of their separation in the storm. "I was also in jeopardy." Maybe he will find an acquaintance who knows their fate. Maybe he will find work in the unfamiliar city so he can keep looking for them. Maybe the government will help him.

    The cyclone taught him this, he said: "It's not safe anywhere anymore."

    https://www.news24.com/Africa/News/its-not-safe-anywhere-mozambique-cyclone-scattered-lives-20190330

    Big powers provide negligible support for #CycloneIdai relief

    31 March 2019, 09:50am

    By Shannon Ebrahim

    Even before Cyclone Idai ravaged Mozambique two weeks ago, the country was listed as the second poorest country in the world according to the world’s leading economists. Zimbabwe is also ranked in the top 10 poorest countries in the world with 95% unemployment, and is now struggling to cope with mass devastation in the wake of Cyclone Idai. The poorest of the poor are being faced with the worst natural disaster Southern Africa has seen in decades, yet the world’s big powers are being stingy at best, providing minimal relief compared to what the UN says is required.

    In the wake of the massive devastation in Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi, the UN made a flash appeal last Tuesday for US$282 million, but the world’s largest donors have pledged a paltry US$51.6 million - one sixth of what is needed. “The milk of human kindness seems to have dried up for this side of the world,” Minister for International Relations Lindiwe Sisulu has said, calling Mozambique’s President Felipe Nyusi "very lonely in his plight".

    “This is the worst devastation I have seen outside of a war situation in Africa,” Sisulu said on her return from a helicopter trip over the devastation in Beira on Thursday. “The area is totally destroyed and resembles a rice paddy, and two weeks later the real body count begins. It seems the world has grown accustomed to disasters, and for many Mozambique and Zimbabwe are far flung and insignificant,” Sisulu said. The needs on the ground are so great that the UN is set to revise its flash appeal in the coming days, and is expected to announce a new flash appeal far greater than US$282 million. Major donors are giving minimal amounts to relief efforts compared to what the situation calls for, while claiming great generosity, and some big powers are yet to even contribute to the relief efforts.

    The largest donor to the Cyclone affected areas to date is the United Kingdom, which is providing the equivalent of US$26 million in humanitarian relief, or 9% of the originally estimated total needs of the cyclone ravaged areas. The next largest donor is the United States which has pledged a total of US$7.5 million, which includes its US$3.4 million donation to the World Food Program. Norway has pledged US$ 5.5 million, Germany US$ 4.8 million, Canada US$ 2.6 million, France US$ 2.2 million, Switzerland US$ 2 million, and Turkey US$1 million. China has provided an undisclosed amount of money and sent rescue and medical teams, and Japan has also been reluctant to disclose the money it has pledged, but sent disaster relief experts and medical teams. Russia is planning to send several transport aircraft with humanitarian aid. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have not been able to provide the amount they are providing to the region. “A few million dollars from each of the big donors will never meet the needs of the devastated countries in Southern Africa, it is time Southern Africa sees who its real friends are,” Dr David Monyae of University of Johannesburg told Independent Media. …

    https://www.iol.co.za/news/africa/big-powers-provide-negligible-support-for-cycloneidai-relief-20340994

    https://www.itv.com/news/2019-03-21/cyclone-idai-survivors-driven-by-hunger-fight-for-food-in-mozambique/

    US army airlifting food and other humanitarian aid supplies from Durban to Mozambique

    2019-03-31 13:34

    Poloko Tau

    The US army has joined the huge humanitarian aid efforts with an around the clock operation through which food and relief supplies were being airlifted from Durban to the cyclone Idai-hit Mozambique. Spokesperson for the US mission in South Africa, Rob Mearkle, said the US Consul General, Sherry Zalika Sykes, visited King Shaka International Airport on Sunday to view yet another shipment of food and other supplies from the UN World Food Programme (WFP). Mearkle said the US army was providing airlift support in South Africa for the USAID-led humanitarian response to cyclone Idai. He said the first batch of supplies were jetted out of Durban on Saturday.

    The South African Department of International Relations and Cooperation (Dirco) and the South African National Defense Force (SANDF) expedited the necessary authorisations for the airlifts, while "invaluable assistance" had been provided by Swissport, Dube Port Cargo, Skytanking, BidAir and Airports Company South Africa (ACSA), Mearkle said. He said the commodities that were being airlifted from Durban were from WFP's internal stock.

    "Separately from these shipments, the United States has provided nearly $3.4m in additional funding for the WFP to deliver approximately 2500 metric tons of rice, peas, and vegetable oil to affected people in Sofala, Zambezia, and Manica provinces. This lifesaving emergency food assistance will support approximately 160 000 people for one month," Mearkle said. "To date, the US government has provided nearly $7.3m (R105m) in humanitarian assistance to help people in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Malawi who have been affected by Cyclone Idai, as well as flooding that occurred earlier this month. This includes more than $6.5 million from USAID."

    https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/us-army-airlifting-food-and-other-humanitarian-aid-supplies-from-durban-to-mozambique-20190331

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  • 247 new cases of cholera were identified in Beira during the 24 hours Sunday to Monday.

    Mozambique cholera cases rise to over 1,000 after Cyclone Idai

    Updated: April 2, 2019 01:59 PM

    The mounting cases represent on average more than 200 cases of new infections each day

    The number of confirmed cases of cholera in Mozambique after Cyclone Idai battered the country has risen to 1,052 people, the health ministry said late on Monday in a new report. The steep rise in cases comes after the first five were announced last week, meaning an average of 200 cases of new infections are being documented every day. The cases threaten to turn into an epidemic less than three weeks after the tropical cyclone made landfall and killed more than 500 people in the country’s central provinces. Although hundreds have been taken ill with cholera since last week, only one death has been reported so far, tallies compiled by the ministry showed.

    A mass vaccination campaign is due to be rolled out on Wednesday as authorities and aid workers are scrambling to avert an epidemic more than two weeks after a devastating cyclone slammed Mozambique. Some 900,000 doses of oral cholera vaccines were due to arrive in the cyclone-battered Beira city on Tuesday, from the global stockpile for emergency, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO). "Vaccination against cholera begins on Wednesday in Beira," a senior Mozambican health official Ussein Isse said. The central city of Beira is the worst affected, accounting for 959 out of the total 1,052 cases. The city of more than half-a-million people recorded 247 cases in 24 hours between Sunday and Monday morning.

    Cholera is transmitted through contaminated drinking water or food and causes acute diarrhoea. The numbers of cholera cases is expected to rise due to the increasing numbers of people reporting to health centres with symptoms, said the WHO in a statement. "The next few weeks are crucial and speed is of the essence if we are to save lives and limit suffering," WHO chief for Africa, Matshidiso Moeti, said in the statement.

    https://www.thenational.ae/world/africa/mozambique-cholera-cases-rise-to-over-1-000-after-cyclone-idai-1.844231

    Cyclone Idai's death toll rises to 843, hundreds of thousands displaced

    by Reuters

    Tuesday, 2 April 2019 09:00 GMT

    BEIRA, Mozambique, April 2 (Reuters) - Hundreds of thousands of people are in need of food, water and shelter after Cyclone Idai battered Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi. As of Tuesday, at least 843 people had been reported killed by the storm, the flooding it caused and heavy rains before it hit. Following is an outline of the disaster, according to government and United Nations officials:

    MOZAMBIQUE

    Cyclone Idai landed on the night of March 14 near the port city of Beira, bringing heavy winds and rains. Two major rivers, the Buzi and the Pungue, burst their banks, submerging entire villages and leaving bodies floating in the water.

    People killed: 598

    People injured: 1,641

    Houses damaged or destroyed: 112,076

    Crops damaged: 715,378 hectares

    People affected: 1.85 million

    Confirmed cholera cases: 1,052

    Confirmed cholera deaths: 1

    ZIMBABWE

    On March 16, the storm hit eastern Zimbabwe, where it flattened homes and flooded communities in the Chimanimani and Chipinge districts.

    People killed: 185, according to government. The U.N. migration agency puts the death toll at 259.

    People injured: 200

    People displaced: 16,000 households

    People affected: 250,000

    MALAWI

    Before it arrived, the storm brought heavy rains and flooding to the lower Shire River districts of Chikwawa and Nsanje, in Malawi's south. The rains continued after the storm hit, compounding the misery of tens of thousands of people.

    People killed: 60

    People injured: 672

    People displaced: 19,328 households

    People affected: 868,895 (Reporting by Emma Rumney and Stephen Eisenhammer in Beira, Tom Miles in Geneva, MacDonald Dzirutwe in Harare and Frank Phiri in Blantyre; Writing by Alexandra Zavis, Alexander Winning and Joe Bavier; Editing by Angus MacSwan)

    http://news.trust.org/item/20190402084751-kx07t



  • More than 4,000 cholera cases and seven deaths from the illness reported in Mozambique.

    Death toll from devastating Cyclone Idai rises above 1,000

    April 11, 2019 - 8 hours ago

    The death toll from a storm that crashed into southeast Africa last month has risen above 1,000, with more than 4,000 cases of cholera reported among survivors in Mozambique, the hardest-hit country. … The cyclone made landfall the night of March 14 near the Mozambican port city of Beira, bringing heavy winds and rains, before moving inland to neighbouring Zimbabwe and Malawi. Zimbabwe on Wednesday updated the number of dead to 344, while Mozambique has reported 602 deaths. In Malawi, 59 people died in heavy rains before the onset of Idai. The final death toll may never be confirmed. Zimbabwe's efforts were "confined to the recovery of the deceased" and the government will send pathologists to Mozambique to assist with identifying the dead, Information Minister Monica Mutsvangwa said on Wednesday. … The UN is seeking $282m to fund emergency assistance over the next three months.

    Since a cholera outbreak was declared on March 27 in Mozambique, the government has recorded 4,072 cases of the disease and seven deaths. The majority of the cases have been reported in Beira, which was badly hit by the storm and subsequent flooding. Running water has recently been restored, reaching around 60 percent of a population of around 500,000. … More than 745,000 doses of oral cholera vaccine have been distributed since the vaccination campaign launched last week, the World Health Organization said on Tuesday. Malaria is another concern as floodwaters recede, with more than 7,500 cases reported, according to the government.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/04/death-toll-devastating-cyclone-idai-rises-1000-190410155136406.html

    Quest to find Mozambique cyclone victims takes toll

    Cara Anna, Associated Press

    Published 10:30 p.m. ET April 9, 2019 | Updated 10:31 p.m. ET April 9, 2019

    Magaru, Mozambique — He was haunted by the thought of a small child’s skull, unburied and lost in the debris of a cyclone that had claimed hundreds of lives. Stephen Fonseca stood in a field of ruined maize where a tiny spine had been found, and he wanted to find the rest of the body. But in every direction were scattered kernels and stalks bleached by the sun. At a glance, much of the landscape looked like bones.

    The stark scene brought home the overwhelming challenge faced by Fonseca, the only body recovery specialist to search the rural Mozambique region struck by Cyclone Idai, since he waded into the devastation nearly a month ago. If a final death toll ever emerges – it is now more than 600 in Mozambique alone – it will be strongly informed by Fonseca’s work in the field, and the quest to name the missing and the dead. The storm tore apart frightened families and swept whole villages away, with floodwaters as high as treetops rushing toward the sea. Parents lost their grip on children. Exhausted people clinging to branches for days fell into the waters and drowned. For days on end, Fonseca followed the accounts of villagers who spoke of seeing the dead floating by.

    As the waters began to recede, he walked for miles through mud so thick it sucked boots off feet. Crocodiles, hippos and snakes posed threats but hungry dogs and pigs were a bigger concern. Fonseca needed to find the bodies before they did, and bury them well. His search was guided by smell, and animal tracks, and flies. It was uncomfortable but necessary work, as bare bones are far more difficult to find, and time was running out. “Some people think it gets easier. I think it gets harder,” Stephen Fonseca said of his work. “Now I’m a parent. I start to relate to some degree how absolutely devastating it is to lose a child. But I will never say I fully understand what they are going through.” “Some people think it gets easier. I think it gets harder,” Stephen Fonseca said of his work. “Now I’m a parent. I start to relate to some degree how absolutely devastating it is to lose a child. But I will never say I fully understand what they are going through.” “This is our one good opportunity to get as much as possible,” said Fonseca, the South Africa-based forensic coordinator for Africa with the International Committee of the Red Cross.

    As he pushed through the rural farmland he met local people who were just as concerned about the dignity of the dead. Desperate for news of their missing family members, some communities sent out search teams. Bodies that were found were given a quick but respectful burial, even when they were strangers. Some of the dead wore the uniforms of neighboring Zimbabwe’s security forces, having been swept down mountainsides some 60 miles away by the raging waters. Burials were difficult work. Shovels, like homes, had been lost. Some people dug with their bare hands, then watched the holes fill with water from the still-sodden ground.

    “They take the time because one day our time will come as well,” Fonseca said. He found the community burials comforting, with people even pausing from handing out badly needed humanitarian aid to take turns digging. And yet he knew the burials almost certainly went unreported to authorities, meaning they would not be counted in the official death toll and families might never know their loved ones’ fates. Shallow graves were precarious, too, vulnerable to animals and further floods, the possible scattering of bones. “You bury who you can but not always well,” said Ibrahim Ismail, a local farm manager. “So he’s helping.”

    Fonseca offered to do exhumations and reburials but only with permission. One family that had tracked down and buried two relatives near a termite mound, a natural marker, decided to let them be. In their culture a person should not be dug up and moved, they said. “I appreciate what he’s doing. It’s life-saving for some of us,” said Manuel Joaquim Makanije, a community member who nevertheless understood the family’s decision. Relatives long for closure, but the bodies could be anywhere.

    Fonseca came across the corpse of a young girl tangled high in a tree. A local man scrambled up the trunk and slowly lowered her to the ground, while children watched. On another long hike Fonseca saw a boatman ferry a woman to a body found on an island. The face was missing, but the woman wept, certain it was her missing relative. With forensic methods such as DNA tests, fingerprinting and dental records almost impossible in rural Mozambique, Fonseca respects what he called “cultural identification.” Clothing, location and other signs were considered in the interest of grieving relatives’ peace of mind.

    Without a mandate from Mozambique’s government to issue death certificates or compile official figures, Fonseca instead gave community leaders guidance on handling the dead. He distributed wooden grave markers, body tags, gloves. It reflected his wider work in Africa helping to strengthen forensics awareness on a continent where people increasingly seek accountability, and answers, over the dead. Fonseca’s time in Mozambique was ending and he would soon head home to South Africa. The work, in very challenging conditions, takes a toll, colleague Neil Morris said. “Stephen knew when he needed to return.”

    In one last try, Fonseca gravitated back to the maize field where nine members of a single family had died. Soon farmers would burn the fields to plant a short-term crop to help avoid months of hunger, as the cyclone had struck just before the annual harvest. The fires would further complicate identifying the dead. As people picked their way through the field salvaging maize kernels, resuming their lives, Fonseca resumed his search for what he knew were now bare bones. The farmers shouldn’t have to discover them, he said. “They’ve been through enough trauma.” He searched slowly. It took hours. “There’s a little cranium somewhere here,” he said, half to himself, thinking of the child. “Someone’s going to find it.”

    Finally he stopped and tied a blue latex glove to a stalk of maize, as a marker. He had found a small shin bone. The bone likely belonged to the same child whose spine had been found not far away. In the end, the bones would be buried together. There were no child-sized body bags. Fonseca improvised one using duct tape. “Some people think it gets easier. I think it gets harder,” he said of his work. “Now I’m a parent. I start to relate to some degree how absolutely devastating it is to lose a child. But I will never say I fully understand what they are going through.” He and a local chief, Moises Mukoto, went to the burial site. Fonseca, sweating in the hot sun, dug open a small grave as the chief wrote the time of day in a notebook, and waited. The bag with the shin bone was gently laid in the hole alongside the tiny spine, which had been buried there earlier. Then the chief quickly hoed the earth back in place. “Even one bone is important,” Fonseca said. “It represents someone special.” The wooden grave marker, written in permanent ink, said: “Don’t touch. The body of a child.”

    It will take months, even years, to discover the cyclone’s dead, Fonseca said. Not everyone will be found.

    https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/world/2019/04/10/mozambique-cyclone-recovery/39324229/



  • A further cyclone and serious flood event could develop in about 6 days in the northern Mozambique-Tanzania border region. A weak cyclone appears to form and stall just inland producing falls in the 250 mm to 1,500 mm range.

    The prior two model runs:
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    The current model run:
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  • The system dumps its wind and rain overland from late Thursday, stalls briefly then keeps moving inland.

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    12 hourly location positions
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    The storm takes around 3 days to clear the area after landfall.



  • A very wet symmetric Cat-4 at landfall with predicted rainfall areas >2,200 mm, and 3 hr rates of 190mm, during and after landfall. Each of the past 4 model runs has shown a worsening forecast, the system now forms and gets organized much further out with the current ecmwf run.

    Apologies for the following garish looking images, I'm working on precipitation overlays with much higher than normal value ranges, when along comes a storm forecast with much higher than normal rainfall projections.

    12 hourly location positions
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    Animation URL: https://i.windy.com/a/ddpy/559eed.gif

    Cabo Delgado, Province of Mozambique
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    Population (2017)
    • Total 2,333,278
    • Density 28/km2 (73/sq mi)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabo_Delgado_Province



  • The as yet to be named cyclone (which will be Tropical Cyclone "Kenneth") and its remnant that's forecast to hit the northern Mozambique-Tanzania border area from Friday, will remain slow-moving over northern Mozambique for about 2.5 days of heavy rain.

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  • Although the forecast wind strength is not as high as prior the rainfall forecast continues to worsen. The decaying remnant remains slow-moving overland in northern Mozambique for about 3.5 days creating a large area of very high rainfalls. This will produce major flooding.

    This event will begin about 6 PM local Mozambique time on Thursday, April 25th, 2019).

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    8 fps Clouds Overlay
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    You can use or share this image on this URL: https://i.windy.com/a/ddpy/55a57x.gif

    There are over 2 million people in the affected area.

    5 fps Rain-Thunder Overlay
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  • UPDATE: Summary of what was said by UNHCR spokesperson Babar Baloch – to whom quoted text may be attributed – at today's press briefing at the Palais des Nations in Geneva.

    Mozambique starts moving Cyclone Idai survivors closer to home

    23 April 2019

    In Mozambique, UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, the national government and other partners have begun the work of relocating families displaced by Cyclone Idai back to areas closer to their places of origin. On Saturday 200 families were moved out of emergency shelters in the central town of Beira. It’s hoped that over the next 10 days some 70,000 further people will be moved out of the temporary sites they have been living in for the past month. These sites include schools, communal halls, libraries and other buildings.

    Cyclone Idai hit the southern African nations of Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe in mid-March. Hardest hit was Mozambique where the cyclone killed some 600 people with more than 1,600 injured, according to official estimates.

    Nearly 240,000 houses have also been damaged and over 111,000 destroyed.

    Families moved at the weekend came from the district of Buzi, the epicenter of devastation in Mozambique. There Cyclone Idai brought complete destruction. As a first step, they were moved to a transit centre in Guara Guara, some 55 kilometres from their areas of origin in Buzi.

    Guara Guara is on higher land and is more suitable for families to restart a life closer to home until they are able to recover old houses that have been completely destroyed. On arrival, the families were assigned emergency tents provided by UNHCR and by INGC (the Government of Mozambique’s agency for managing natural disasters).

    The settlement is equipped with potable water and latrines, and the national government – with the support of the UN World Food Programme – is providing food. MSF is operating a health centre on the ground.

    The families will stay in Guara Guara for up to three days and will receive a plot of land (20 x 30 meters, totaling 600 square meters), a kit of materials to clean the land and build their new houses, and seeds to start farming.

    UNHCR is positioning its available stocks of relief items – including mosquito nets, solar lamps, sleeping mats, blankets, kitchen sets, jerry cans and buckets – to be distributed to those families. Priority is given to the elderly, disabled persons, single women and unaccompanied children.

    We are working with other humanitarian partners to ensure adherence to internationally accepted relocation standards, including the voluntary nature of the moves.

    With an estimated 1.8 million people in need of humanitarian assistance in Mozambique, aid organizations are facing immense challenges due to extensive damages to infrastructure and low funding. So far humanitarian agencies have been able to reach only 30 per cent of the target population.

    For more information on this topic, please contact:

    In Maputo, Luiz Fernando Godinho, [email protected], +258874230001
    In Pretoria, Markku Aikomus, [email protected], +2781 797 7456
    In Geneva, Babar Baloch, [email protected], +41 79 513 9549

    https://www.unhcr.org/uk/news/briefing/2019/4/5cbece924/mozambique-starts-moving-cyclone-idai-survivors-closer-home.html

    --

    From the current news summaries today it seems almost no one within Mozambique is currently aware that another cyclone and major flood are just about to hit the northern coastal area and hinterland. It seems as though there are not even warnings being given to the local population. The problem here is the 'cyclone' is going to form in close and deepen rapidly and impact the coast within two days. How can you warn people about a powerful cyclone that doesn't exist yet? They're not going to take the developing situation seriously until too late to do much.



  • Latest visible satellite image - 993 hPa and 40 kts.

    20190423.1000.msg1.x.vis2km.24STWENTYFOUR.40kts-993mb-103S-498E.100pc.jpg

    20190423.1000.msg1.x.vis1km.24STWENTYFOUR.40kts-993mb-103S-498E.100pc.jpg



  • Tropical Cyclone Kenneth has formed.

    @ 65kts and 976 hPa

    20190424.0430.msg1.x.vis2km.24SKENNETH.65kts-976mb-107S-468E.100pc.jpg

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    12 hour forecast location positions
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    The remnant stays overland in north-eastern Mozambique for about 4 days.



  • The forecast has not improved, cyclone Kenneth is going to spend around 4 days over a fairly small part of NE Mozambique (where about 2.5 million people will be directly affected by major flooding).

    12 hr location positions
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    Latest satellite images indicate a Dvorak analysis of 70 kts and 985 hPa.

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    The latest vapor imagery is confirming that this will be a very wet storm.

    20190424.065500.terra.modis.Vapor.tc1924SKENNETH.covg94p1.modislance.res1km.jpg

    Should be able to get a better view of this storm in about 6 hours just before the sun goes down. The forecast indicates it will grow rapidly to Cat-4 from now, before weakening to about Cat-3 prior to landfall. It's a bit asymmetric with most of the rain on its northern side. At present the ECMWF model appears to be over-estimating its wind category.

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    There's only about 24 to 30 hrs until cyclonic wind and rain conditions arrive at the coast



  • Cyclone-ravaged Mozambique threatened by new tropical storm

    24 April 2019 - 08:15

    By AFP

    A tropical system off Mozambique threatens to unleash a cyclone on the northern Cabo Delgado province just weeks after the country's central parts were ravaged by a powerful storm, meteorologists warned Tuesday.

    The poor southern African country is still reeling from the impact of deadly cyclone Idai -- the most powerful storm to hit the region in recent decades -- which left about 1,000 dead in Mozambique and Zimbabwe.

    The storm is forecast to make landfall late this week in Cabo Delgado province, reeling from violence at the hands of Islamists who have been terrorising villagers in remote communities for the past 18 months.

    "The (weather) system we are talking about was a low pressure and today evolved into tropical depression," Aniceto Tembe, spokesman for the Mozambique Meteorology Institute told AFP in the capital Maputo.

    The depression was north of Madagascar island Tuesday, approaching the Mozambique Channel where warm conditions are conducive for it to grow into a cyclone.

    "We are projecting that a severe tropical cyclone may arrive and if the conditions allow it can even reach Category 3 tropical cyclone" strength - with winds of between 140 and 160 kilometres (87 to 99 miles) per hour, he added.

    "The projections indicate that the system will approach the coast of Mozambique... mainly the northern part of Cabo Delgado and the southern part of Tanzania," Tembe told AFP.

    In a statement Monday, the public works ministry issued a warning of strong winds and heavy rains that could cause flooding and destruction of property in the province of Cabo Delgado and its southern neighbouring province of Nampula.

    It said 80,000 people were at risk.

    The centre for disaster management issued a warning Tuesday of a tropical storm with wind speeds of between 80 and 120 kilometres per hour, expected to make landfall Friday in the gas-rich district of Palma, the nerve centre of Mozambique's nascent gas industry.

    Hardline Islamists have launched several deadly attacks in the Muslim-majority, oil and gas-rich Cabo Delgado province in the past year, killing about 200 people, beheading some of them, and forcing thousands from their homes.

    Last month Cyclone Idai cut a path of destruction through Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe on the night of March 14-15, causing damage worth about $2 billion, according to the World Bank. In Mozambique alone, more than 600 people died among the 1.85 million affected, while over 340 died in Zimbabwe.

    https://www.sowetanlive.co.za/news/africa/2019-04-24-cyclone-ravaged-mozambique-threatened-by-new-tropical-storm/?device=feature_phone

    --

    This is the first news article/warning that I've seen so far about cyclone Kenneth's approach. It'll make landfall within about 30 hrs (probably as a major cyclone) and almost no one there seems to realize what's about to hit them.


  • Sailor

    You said that « the ECMWF model appears to be over-estimating its wind category ». But do you compare ECMWF gusts forecast with sustained winds /1min?
    RMSC La Réunion forecast 70 to 80kt /10min. which is in line with the max 70kt Wind predicted by ECMWF.



  • By which I mean the category indicated within the second image down in this earlier link.

    https://community.windy.com/post/21290

    It shows Kenneth as already a Cat-3 range (according to ecmwf) while a Dvorak (observation) analysis indicates 65 to 70 kt winds or low to mid-level Cat-1 at that time, and currently.


  • Sailor

    @WXcycles
    Your second image is based on Wind accumulation, and Wind accumulation shows the maximum gusts forecast on the map during the week. So that’s gusts, while Dvorak analysis gives sustained winds /1 min. forecast...if I’m right.



  • Yes, but it's not referring to some other Cat-3 cyclone later this week. The passage just occurred (over a few hours, not over a week) and ECMWF has put the max gust range inside the Cat-3 range, but from a low-end Cat-1 storm. That's presuming the Dvorak wind number is reasonably accurate, and frankly the clouds are not particularly well defined within those early images, with lots of cirrus smudging out detail needed to do the classification. So the (early) ECMWF cyclonic-range gust forecast looks rather optimistic to me.

    But looking at the early satellite images (visually and subjectively that is) it's clearly just a fairly disorganized Cat-1 trying to get established, and not a system with Cat-3 level gusts (yet).



  • Cyclone Kenneth, 981 hPa and 75 knot winds. It's beginning to get its act together with a well-established outflow developing during the past few hours.

    1 - 20190424.1200.msg1.x.vis2km.24SKENNETH.75kts-981mb-111S-444E.100pc.jpg
    2 - 20190424.1139.f15.x.vis2km.24SKENNETH.70kts-985mb-109S-457E.090pc.jpg
    3 - 20190424.1139.f15.x.vis1km.24SKENNETH.70kts-985mb-109S-457E.100pc.jpg
    4 - 20190424.1200.msg1.x.ir1km.24SKENNETH.75kts-981mb-111S-444E.100pc.jpg
    5 - 20190424.1139.f15.x.ir1km.24SKENNETH.70kts-985mb-109S-457E.100pc.jpg

    It's clearly beginning to flare up convection within this last IR image. According the the forecast it should build a core very rapidly soon after it passes by the Island to its immediate WSW. Clearly edging towards Cat-2, and an outer rain band is already impacting the coastline



  • The cyclone has just developed deep-convection around a defined eye on IR within the past hour as it begins to pass-by the island to the SW.

    3 - 20190424.1500.msg1.x.ir1km.24SKENNETH.75kts-981mb-111S-444E.100pc.jpg

    22 hours to eye landfall

    1.png
    2.png

    3 hourly track
    2.jpg

    The coastal impact area appears to have a fairly sparse population of small towns.



  • Very rapid development of deep convection during the past hour is transforming cyclone Kenneth into a much larger system. It's also developed a much larger eye with more distinct core banding.

    a - 20190424.1530.msg1.x.ir1km.24SKENNETH.75kts-981mb-111S-444E.100pc.jpg
    aa - 20190424.1600.msg1.x.ir1km.24SKENNETH.75kts-981mb-111S-444E.100pc.jpg
    b - 20190424.1533.f17.x.ir1km.24SKENNETH.75kts-981mb-111S-444E.100pc.jpg

    This much uplift indicates rapid intensification. It should become a Cat-3 within hours.


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