Huge differences between models



  • Hello,
    I've checked different areas in Switzerland and there are huge differences in temperatures and precipitations (but also on other weather parameters too) on different models. Do you know what's happening? The only accurate model now seems is NEMS from MeteoBlue.
    Best regards,
    Marian


  • Sailor

    @marianpoara
    Hi,
    Of course there are huge differences in mountainous regions between models.
    Some are global models covering the whole globe, like GFS and ECMWF model, so they have a coarse horizontal and vertical resolution. For instance the temperature calculated by GFS is supposed to be the same on an area of 22x22km (and then interpolated between each grid points). It gives a very coarse « image » of temperature in Switzerland.
    Limited area models like ICON, NEMS and AROME offer a better resolution, so the temperature at a location is much more in relation with altitude.

    0E6FE532-5E43-476E-9BFB-C57FDFD80EF1.jpeg
    Temperature over Switzerland - modified colours

    The resolution of the model has a high influence on temperature forecasts in mountains, same for the limit between rain and snow, and also for precipitation. They all depend on the orography.
    However, global models are useful for medium term forecasts at a synoptic scale.


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