Rain, thunderstorms are very good
e19701125 last edited by
Rainfall, thunderstorms are very Caton, stop and go to see the next two days of rain and thunderstorms for a few minutes, very Caton is very unsatisfactory, see other options are very smooth, only to see the rain thunderstorms will be very stuck, can you improve? Thank you
Rain areas are more stable within the Rain-Thunder display but rain can move quickly, or else just start and stop randomly.
But with regard to thunderstorms, they are short-term events and their occurrence is often very patchy and local. So they'll rarely 'move' smoothly as what you see displayed is a series of separate storms that are forecast to form and decaying in less than two hours (usually).
But the model moves foward in three-hourly steps. So it's unlikely to become smoother until the model's time steps are also about 1-hour long. The AROME model has 1-hour steps now but its coverage is very limited.
The other problem is that the forecast location and formation of any thunderstorm can not be very accurately predicted by a model. The formation process is more chaotic than a model can reliably predict. What you therefore see within the display is only giving you an idea of how likely a storm is within that area and within that time frame. And to indicate the likely storm intensity.
Models can forecast the likely thunderstorm intensity, if a storm does form in an area within a given time. But a model can not tell you accurately if one will form or where.
So even if the display was made smoother, it still would not be reliable, it's just a guide to what's likely to occur in the area if a storm forms.