2019 Atlantic Hurricane season outlook
pavelneuman last edited by pavelneuman
2019 hurricane season already began on May 15 for the Pacific Basin, and begins June 1 for the Atlantic basin.
The forecasts for both basins have already been released, including those from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University.
NOAA expects a “near normal” season for overall number of systems in the Atlantic basin (North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico).
NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.
NOAA's outlook for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season indicates that a near-normal season has the highest chance of occurring (40%), followed by equal chances (30%) of an above-normal season and a below-normal season. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.
The 2019 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:
- 9-15 Named Storms
- 4-8 Hurricanes
- 2-4 Major Hurricanes
- Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 65%-140% of the median
The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. These expected ranges are centered on the 1981-2010 seasonal averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Most of the predicted activity is likely to occur during the peak months (August-October, ASO) of the hurricane season.
Above-normal 2019 Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific hurricane season
In the eastern and central Pacific basins, NOAA expects a more active season as compared to normal with 5-8 named storms.