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    What parameter is chosen for lightning forecast

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    • J
      JesperEriksen
      last edited by

      Hello!

      Several parameters can be chosen in order to try to model the risk of lightning.

      Which has been chosen, when I for instance look at lightning risk from the IFS/ECMWF model?

      Is it the K-index? Vertically intergraded graupel? Or something else?

      Gkikas LGPZG 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
      • Gkikas LGPZG
        Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @JesperEriksen
        last edited by

        @JesperEriksen
        The lightning parametrization (by ECMWF) uses a lot of parameters:
        Convective hydrometeor amounts,
        convective available potential energy (CAPE)
        convective cloud base height etc
        Also, is calibrated to match the annual mean flash densities from satellite climatology.

        378905b0-4ea8-4fdf-a272-f9f80d86af5c-εικόνα.png
        source: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/155/meteorology/promising-results-lightning-predictions

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