Gulf of Mexico: 90% chance of cyclone formation in 48 hours
pavelneuman last edited by pavelneuman
North Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
Forecaster Pasch, NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
10 July 2019 2:00 a.m. EDT / 6:00 a.m. UTC
Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico
A broad low pressure area located over the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form late today or Thursday while the low moves slowly westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico.
An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.
This system could produce storm surge and tropical storm or hurricane force winds across portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi and Upper Texas coasts, and interests there should closely monitor its progress.
In addition, this disturbance has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle.
For more information, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
- Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
North Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Forecaster AKR, 10 July 2019, 1:41 a.m. EDT / 5:41 a.m. UTC
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC.
A broad low pressure area located over the Florida Panhandle and the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development and a tropical depression is expected to form late Wednesday or Thursday as the low moves slowly westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico.
In addition, this disturbance has the potential to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle during the next several days, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
For more information, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more information.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W from 16N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 210 nm of the wave axis from 05N-08N.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 16N southward, moving W around 15-20 kt. There are some showers seen along the feature but no significant deep convection at this time.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W from 14N southward, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered showers are seen within 150 nm of the wave axis from 04N-10N. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are likely for the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Friday into Saturday.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W from 04N-17N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the eastern Caribbean and northern Venezuela within 60 nm of the wave axis.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W from 06N-20N, moving W around 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen along the wave from 09N-16N.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of The Gambia/Senegal near 13N17W to 08N22W to 08N33W. The ITCZ begins near 08N37W to 08N46W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 08N50W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W.
Aside from the convection mentioned above in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is seen along the monsoon trough from 05N-09N between 24W-34W.
Showers are also seen within 150 nm north of the ITCZ between 37W-58W.
Gulf of Mexico
See the Special Features section above for more details on the low expected to move into the Gulf this week.
A mid-low level low and trough are confined to the northeast Gulf bringing enhanced convection across the area.
The broad area of low pressure is centered over the Florida Panhandle with a 1011 mb low analyzed near 30N85W with a trough extending into the eastern Gulf from this low to 28N83W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 28N-30N between 83W-91W. The strongest area of convection is coming off the central Louisiana coast N of 28N between 87W-91W.
Weak surface ridging prevails in the western Gulf anchored by a 1015 mb high near 26N92W. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin.
Weak high pressure will dominate the western Gulf through Wednesday. Low pressure emerging into the NE Gulf this evening will strengthen Wednesday through late week, likely into a tropical cyclone. This feature will drift generally westward toward the north-central and northwest Gulf into the weekend.
See the Tropical Waves section for information on the tropical waves currently traversing the Caribbean.
Upper-level low centered over the northern Caribbean extending into the central basin, along with a deep plume of moisture, is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection near Cuba and Jamaica. This convection is seen from 16N-21N between 78W- 82W.
Scattered moderate convection is also seen near the Dominican Republic from 17N-18N between 68W- 71W with showers moving across Puerto Rico. Numerous moderate to strong convection continues across the SW Caribbean off the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua enhanced by the monsoon trough. This is seen south of 13N between 78W-84W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean with moderate trades in the eastern basin, and light to gentle trades across the rest of the area.
High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean for the entire period. A westward moving tropical wave over the western Caribbean will weaken as it approaches Central America Wednesday. Another tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean will also weaken as it moves into the western Caribbean through late week. A third tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Thursday and move through the central Caribbean Friday and Saturday. .
The broad area of low pressure in the NE Gulf is contributing to isolated thunderstorms over the western Atlantic W of 76W.
Additionally, the upper-level low contributing to convection over the Caribbean is also giving way to scattered moderate convection across the Bahamas from 22N-26N between 75W-79W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue across the Atlantic from 25N-29N between 54W-66W likely due to enhanced moisture in the area as seen on TPW. Surface ridging is seen across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high near 27N56W. Moderate easterly winds are seen north of Hispaniola in the latest scatterometer data.
Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will persist through Wed over the offshore waters NE of Florida due to developing low pres over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, high pressure dominating the region will support gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere, except N of Hispaniola where fresh to strong trades will pulse at night.
For additional information please visit NHC Marine Forecasts & Analyses.