Tracking the paths of Tropical Storm Danas (Falcon) and Tropical Depression in the South China Sea



    • Update Tropical Depression Danas (06W), located approximately 20 NM south-southwest of Kunsan Air Base, has tracked north-northeastward at 11 knots over the past six hours.
      photo:JTWC;description:JTWC's TD 06W Warning Graphic
      There is fair confidence in the initial position which relied on animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery to reveal an asymmetric cloud signature and isolated convection to the east of, and partially obscuring, the low level circulation center (LLCC).

      The initial intensity of 25 kts is consistent with surrounding surface observations of 15-25 kts and a 11:53 a.m. UTC MetOp-A ASCAT pass showing a small area of 25 kt winds near the southern tip of Korea.

      Despite good poleward outflow and low vertical wind shear, the environment is unfavorable due to cool sea surface temperature and imminent landfall near Kunsan Air Base. For the duration of the forecast, TD 06W will track around the northwest periphery of a subtropical ridge.

      The unfavorable conditions will cause TD 06W to dissipate by TAU 12 and cool temperatures in the sea of Japan are not expected to support re-intensification. Based on strong agreement in the model guidance, there is high confidence in the JTWC track forecast.

      This is the final warning on this system by the JTWC Pearl Harbor HI. The system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration. Maximum significant wave height at 12 p.m. is 11 feet. (JTWC, 20 Jul 3 p.m. UTC)

      photo: JTWC/SATOPS; description: Tropical Storm Danas on 20 July 2019 at 12:00 a.m. UTC;
    • Update Danas is forecast to make landfall late Saturday evening, making a near-direct hit on Kunsan and passing 23 miles southeast of Osan Air Base.
    • Update Danas, downgraded to a tropical depression by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, is approx. 84 NM south-southwest of Kunsan Air Base, South Korea, headed north-northeastward at 5 knots over past 6 hours. (JTWC, 20 Jul 9 a.m. UTC)
    • Update Danas (06w, Falcon), located approximately 266 NM south-southwest of Kunsan Air Base, Korea, has tracked north-northeastward at 16 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height at 12 p.m. UTC is 22 feet. (JTWC 19 Jul at 3:00 p.m.)
    • Update Added Himawari satellite imagery from 10:30 UTC (scroll down below the updates)
    • Update Animated MSI (multispectral satellite imagery) depicts a broad, well-defined LLC (low-level circulation) with deep convective banding confined, primarily, to the eastern semicircle. A 4:25 a.m. UTC AMSR2 89ghz microwave image indicates improved banding with deep convective banding over the eastern semicircle wrapping into the north quadrant of the LLC suggesting a slight intensification trend. (JTWC 19 Jul at 9:00 a.m. UTC)
      photo:JTWC;description:JTWC's TC Warning Graphic
    • Update Tropical Storm Danas (06W, Falcon), located approximately 374 NM south-southwest of Kunsan Air Base, Korea, has tracked northward at 11 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 22 feet (JTWC 19 Jul at 6:00 a.m. UTC).
    • Update: Taiwan has issued a land and sea warning for Danas since being impacted on its path. Especially the Southern and Eastern Taiwan should be prepared for heavy winds and rainfall. According to the Korea Meteorological Administration, the landfall is expected to be made on the Korean Peninsula on Friday afternoon.

    Updates are done by Windy staff, earlier coverage by Binbin0111

    19 July 2019 satellite imagery

    photo: JTWC/SATOPS; description: Tropical Storm Danas on 19 July 2019 at 12:00 a.m. UTC;

    photo: JMA; description: Himawari-floater unenhanced IR from 19 July 2019 at 10:30 a.m. UTC;

    photo: JMA; description: Himawari-floater visible imagery from 19 July 2019 at 10:30 a.m. UTC;

    photo: JMA; description: Himawari color enhanced IR imagery from 19 July 2019 at 10:30 a.m. UTC;

    https://www.windy.com/annotation/5d306adca6fe5e00194051f4

    Check the current max. winds forecast, keep track of local weather warnings and stay safe!

    Earlier coverage

    On July 12, an area of low pressure formed near the Mariana Islands. During the next couple of days, the system slowly drifted westward while gradually organizing.

    Early on July 14, the low-pressure area organized into a tropical depression to the southwest of the Mariana Islands. Later that day, the tropical depression entered the Philippine area of responsibility, and the PAGASA gave the system the name Falcon. Afterward, the system continued organizing while approaching Luzon.

    July 15, 12:00 a.m. (UTC)

    Location: 16.35 °N 130.5 °E (In Philippines sea)
    Wind: 55 km/h, (35 mph) maintained (10-minute wind)
    Pressure: 1006 mbar

    On July 16, the tropical depression strengthened into a tropical storm, and the JMA named the system Danas. Shortly afterward, at 12:00 UTC that day, the JTWC upgraded Danas to a tropical storm.

    photo:NOAA; description:Western Pacific seen from Himawari-8 satellite;

    At 12:00 a.m. on July 17 (PST), PAGASA reported that Danas (Falcon) had made landfall over at Gattaran, Cagayan and looped over the landmass. However, Danas's center of circulation still remained off the coast of Luzon, and the JMA and JTWC both stated that Danas did not make landfall at all.

    Northeasterly wind shear had displaced much of Danas' convection to the west, and an area of low pressure had formed west of Vigan, Ilocos Sur.

    This led to the formation of another area of low pressure over the western Philippines, within Danas' mass of convection, which had confused many forecasters and was also likely the source of confusion that had caused PAGASA to state that Falcon (Danas) had made landfall.

    This low would later develop into another tropical depression. Later that day, the JMA reported that Danas intensified slightly to 40 kt (45 mph) winds. Later on the same day, Danas weakened back into a minimal tropical storm.

    12:00 UTC, July 17

    Location: 20.5°N 123.9°E
    421 nmi (780 km; 484 mi) SSW of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
    Sustained winds: 35 kn (65 km/h; 40 mph) (10-min mean)
    35 kn (65 km/h; 40 mph) (1-min mean)
    Gusting to 50 kn (95 km/h; 60 mph)
    Pressure: 992 hPa (29.29 inHg)
    Movement:NNE at 12 kn (22 km/h; 14 mph)

    photo:JTWC;description:Danas' path

    A tropical depression over the eastern part of the South China Sea

    On July 17, a tropical depression formed from the western part of Tropical Storm Danas, over the eastern part of the South China Sea, just off the coast of Luzon.

    Deep convection associated with Tropical Storm Danas (06W / #FalconPH) has decoupled from the storm's circulation center due to persistent moderate-strong easterly wind shear. The decoupled convection is found just off the west coast of Northern Luzon, while the exposed center is now located to the northeast of the island and is moving poleward towards Japan's Ryukyu islands.

    Parts of Northern and Central Luzon will continue to experience rainy weather and gusty winds today and tomorrow (Thursday), however, the rainfall accumulation forecast for most of the region until tomorrow night has significantly decreased mainly due to Danas' deep convection being displaced too far west than previously anticipated. The copious rainfall amounts that were expected to fall over the region should now remain over the South China Sea instead. Residents/visitors in the mentioned regions should remain alert.

    Moreover, a new low pressure area could be forming off the west coast of Northern Luzon associated with the decoupled convection from Tropical Storm Danas. Global models show this new system slowly moving towards Taiwan and Eastern China during the next couple of days with possible weak/slight development. Residents/visitors there should closely monitor and be prepared.

    Soo Trần

    15 years old meteorology enthusiast from Da Nang, Vietnam. Follow me on Twitter or Facebook.



  • Tropical storm Danas (Falcon) and Tropical Depression in the South China Sea - July 19, 2019 (Japanese)

    南シナ海の熱帯低気圧ダナス(ファルコン)と熱帯低気圧 - 2019年7月19日 7月12日に、マリアナ諸島の近くに低気圧の地域が形成されました。次の2、3日の間に、システムは徐々に組織化しながらゆっくりと西に漂流しました。 7月14日の早い時期に、低気圧の地域はマリアナ諸島の南西に熱帯低気圧に組織化しました。その日の後半に、熱帯低気圧がフィリピンの責任範囲に入り、PAGASAはシステムにファルコンという名前を付けました。その後、システムはルソン島に接近しながら組織化を続けた。 7月16日に、熱帯低気圧は熱帯性暴風雨へと強くなり、気象庁はシステムをダナスと名付けました。その後間もなく、その日の12:00 UTCに、JTWCはダナスを熱帯性暴風雨にアップグレードしました。 7月17日午前12時(PST)、PAGASAは、ダナス(ファルコン)がカガヤンのガッタランに上陸し、陸地を一周したと報じた。しかし、ダナスの循環の中心はまだルソン島の沖合に残っていました、そしてJMAとJTWCは両方ともダナスがまったく上陸しなかったと述べました。北東風の剪断はダナスの対流の大部分を西に移し、低気圧の地域がイロコススルのヴィガンの西に形成された。これは、多くの予測者を混乱させ、またファルコン(ダナス)が上陸したと述べた混乱の原因となったダナスの対流の塊の中に、フィリピン西部にまたがる低気圧の別の地域の形成をもたらしました。 。この安値は後に別の熱帯低気圧に発展するでしょう。その日の遅い頃、気象庁は、ダナスが40 結び目(45 mph)の風にわずかに強まったと報告しました。同じ日の後半に、ダナスは最小の熱帯低気圧に弱まりました。 7月17日、南シナ海の東部、ルソン島の沿岸沖で、熱帯低気圧ダナスの西部から熱帯低気圧が形成されました。



  • Tropical storm Danas (Falcon) and Tropical Depression in the South China Sea - July 19, 2019 (Filipino (Tagalog))

    Tropikal bagyo na Falcon (Danas) at Tropical Depression sa South China Sea - Hulyo 19, 2019 Noong Hulyo 12, isang lugar ng mababang presyon ang nabuo malapit sa mga Isla ng Mariana. Sa susunod na ilang araw, ang sistema ay unti-unti na lumilipat pakanluran habang unti-unting nag-aayos. Maaga noong Hulyo 14, ang mababang-presyon na lugar na inorganisa sa isang tropikal na depresyon sa timog-kanluran ng Mga Isla ng Mariana. Pagkaraan ng araw na iyon, ang tropical depression ay pumasok sa responsibilidad ng Pilipinas, at binigyan ng sistemang PAGASA ang pangalan ng Falcon. Pagkatapos nito, ang sistema ay patuloy na nag-oorganisa habang papalapit sa Luzon. Noong Hulyo 16, ang tropical depression ay pinalakas sa tropikal na bagyo, at pinangalanan ng JMA ang sistemang Danas. Makalipas ang ilang sandali, sa 12:00 UTC sa araw na iyon, na-upgrade ng JTWC si Danas sa isang tropikal na bagyo. Noong 12:00 ng umaga sa Hulyo 17 (PST), iniulat ng PAGASA na si Danas (Falcon) ay nag-landfall sa Gattaran, Cagayan at nakabase sa landmass. Gayunpaman, ang sentro ng sirkulasyon ni Danas ay nanatili pa rin sa baybayin ng Luzon, at ang JMA at JTWC ay nagsabi na ang Danas ay hindi nag-landfall sa lahat. Napapalibutan ng hangin ang Northeaster ng karamihan sa kombersyon ni Danas sa kanluran, at isang lugar ng mababang presyon ang nabuo sa kanluran ng Vigan, Ilocos Sur. Ito ang humantong sa pagbuo ng isa pang lugar ng mababang presyon sa kanluran ng Pilipinas, sa loob ng mass of convection ni Danas, na nalilito sa maraming mga forecasters at malamang din ang pinagmumulan ng pagkalito na naging sanhi ng PAGASA na ipahayag na ang Falcon (Danas) . Ang mababang ito ay mamaya ay lumaki sa isa pang tropikal na depresyon. Pagkaraan ng araw na iyon, iniulat ng JMA na si Danas ay lumakas nang bahagya sa 40 kt (45 mph) na hangin. Mamaya sa parehong araw, Danas weakened pabalik sa isang minimal tropikal na bagyo. Noong Hulyo 17, isang tropical depression na nabuo mula sa kanlurang bahagi ng Tropical Storm na si Danas, sa silangang bahagi ng South China Sea, sa labas ng baybayin ng Luzon.


  • Moderator

    Thanks for the article :) Don't forget Windy's built in Hurricane Tracker too, maybe it can also be of assistance:

    https://www.windy.com/-Hurricane-tracker/hurricanes?gustAccu,23.068,120.326,6,i:pressure,p:off

    2019-07-18 15.45.32 - Windy_ Hurricane tracker - Google Chrome.jpg



  • Please note the article was written by 15 yrs old boy from Vietnam. It's great to see someone to start that soon. Right, folks?


  • Moderator

    Yes it's fantastic. And in multiple languages too! :)



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