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    Valid: Mon 29 Jul 2019 06:00 to Tue 30 Jul 2019 06:00 UTC
    Issued: Mon 29 Jul 2019 02:00
    Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

    A level 1 was issued across Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Austria and Hungary mainly for excessive local convective precipitation.

    A level 1 was issued across Albania to Bulgaria mainly for large hail.

    A level 1 was issued across S Russia mainly for large hail.

    A level 1 was issued across SW UK mainly for tornadoes and severe convective wind gusts,

    photo: ESTOFEX;desc: Storm Forecast valid Mon 29 Jul 2019 06:00 - Tue 30 Jul 2019 06:00 UTC.;


    A small but unseasonally intense low slowly enters the English Channel, accompanied by a strong wind field affecting SW UK and W FR coastal regions. A broad zone of moist unstable air over central and SE Europe is confined by a cold front from Russia on the Baltic, Belarus, Ukraine side, and advances westward as warm front over Germany, Denmark and Austria. To the south, a trough and jetstream move over the southern Balkan.


    SW UK

    Significant low-level shear >10 m/s and some CAPE are coming together in the NE flank of the system. In such case storms that form may produce tornadoes.

    Central Europe

    Slow-moving storms under weak shear present a primary threat of excessive rain production with flash floods. GFS places convective maximum over S Poland with weakly capped 1000 J/kg, whereas ECMWF and WRF models favour them to the south and west in weaker CAPE but more humid conditions. Also along the warm front in N Germany and Denmark, some convective rain threat is not excluded.


    Lower CAPE but favourable shear and dynamic triggering during afternoon could produce organized storms which can produce some large hail.

    S Russia

    Large hail can be produced here in storms along the cold front thanks to enhanced deep layer shear and relatively high cloud base.

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