ECMWF failed very hard two times



  • Dear Windys,
    first thing first. I love your app.Its the best i have seen.
    Now to my Problem i have,. ECMWF is the supposed to be best forecast.
    It failed two times very very hard.
    One time it said no drop is raining. and then a very heavy storm came, super high winds and endless water.
    Second time was last night. 10 mm of water should e coming down, but it rained ZERO drop.
    Raining forecast in genereal is not relaiable here in Berlin with this model.
    I am trying now the others, but i am not sure which one to use.
    all the best,
    g


  • Moderator

    It happens sometimes, especially with the particularly unstable weather that has been frequent across Europe this summer.

    The models are not perfect. I often use the Compare feature, and look at the pattern across all 4 models to try and understand what pattern has the highest likelihood of occuring.

    Also it's possible to start developing some basic local knowledge, ie: when the forecast says "that", in my local area "this" is normally what happens.

    For example, all this summer thunderstorms have in general caused less rain than forecast, in my local area. We have had the heavy clouds, we have had the thunder and lightning, but the rain has often mostly missed us and fallen elsewhere.

    But maybe some kilometers away on the other side of town they got the full force of the storm? There can easily be some localised effects occurring.

    Hope that helps :)



  • @jmh2002 thank you for your input. Very much appreciated.

    I am comparing ..... and at the moment mblue is best


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