Over 32,000 lightning strikes detected across British Isles in the past 24h
Around 32,000 lightning strikes have been detected across the British Isles in the past 24 hours, as several thunderstorms (and a few potential supercells) tracked across eastern England in particular, producing hail up to 3cm in diameter and notably gusty winds.
“But my app says it will be sunny all day”.
This is a typical comment we receive whenever the Convective Weather issue convective forecasts. The bottom line is, most apps are driven by raw model output, without any human forecaster input.
Models struggle to simulate showers and thunderstorms, and will rarely get the showers/storms in the right place, or indeed at the right time. Models are merely tools, and should never be taken literally - which sadly is what apps essentially do.
Forecasters will use multiple models (not just one that might be powering your particular app), with knowledge of model biases and the overall synoptic setup, to come up with a ‘best guess’ forecast. This is essentially how our forecasts are put together.