Severe storms to be expected across Bulgaria and Southern Romania

BarboraSamkova

Valid: Thu 26 Sep 2019 06:00 to Fri 27 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 25 Sep 2019 23:08
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued across Bulgaria and southern Romania mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

photo:Estofex;desc:Storm Forecast valid Thu 26 Sep 2019 06:00 - Fri 27 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC;

Synopsis

A long-wave trough is placed across Europe. The polar jet is located rather south and a jet streak moves from the Aegean to Turkey, with an upper-level front spreading across Bulgaria. Another jet maximum affects western Europe.

Discussion

Bulgaria

An upper level front is associated with steep lapse rates that spread north-eastward on Thursday, to overlap with rich moisture near the coasts of the Black Sea. MLCAPE will reach some 100s J/kg in the afternoon. At low-levels, a cold front moves eastward, with sufficient lift to initiate storms across Bulgaria and southern Romania. Straight-line hodographs with deep-layer shear of 20 m/s support splitting storms and multicells. Storms will mostly move south-east and may stay isolated for some time. Given limited CAPE and also not too impressive shear, severe potential is also limited. Some large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast.

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