Hurricane Lorenzo updates

[pavelneuman]

• Update: Although Lorenzo has weakened to a Post-Tropical Cyclone, it's still expected to bring winds and rainfall to Ireland and UK. At 11:00 a.m. AST (3:00 p.m. UTC), the center of the Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo was near 44.4N, 25.8W, about 945 miles (1,525 km) WSW of Cork, Ireland, and about 970 miles (1,565 km) WSW of Galway, Ireland. A continued fast motion toward the northeast is expected through Thursday morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward and then southeastward Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of post-tropical Lorenzo will move near western Ireland on Thursday, then pass over Ireland and England on Thursday night and Friday. The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has discontinued all warnings for the Azores. Interests in Ireland should monitor warnings and advisories issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office.
• Update: We've uploaded the Lorenzo cone and track forecast by NHC's Advisory #41. Click here to view its interactive version on any Windy layer.
• Update: Hurricane Lorenzo is moving rapidly away from the Azores. At 8:00 a.m. AST (12:00 p.m. UTC), Hurricane Lorenzo was located near 43.0N 28.0W, about 300 miles (480 km) NNE of Flores island in the western Azores. Max. sustained winds are at 85 mph (140 km/h). Following warnings will likely be discontinued later today. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Sao Miguel and Santa Maria. A continued fast motion toward the northeast is expected through Thursday morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will continue moving away from the Azores today, and move near Ireland Thursday evening. (Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 40A by nhc.noaa.gov)
• Update: Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). A wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) was reported at the Santa Cruz Airport on Flores island in the western Azores. Waves up to 72 feet (22 m) high and hurricane-force [wind gusts](link url) over 124 mph (200 km/h) are expected for parts of the Azores islands. At 8:00 p.m. AST (12:00 a.m. UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near 37.8N, 34.3W, moving toward the northeast near 32 mph (52 km/h). A northeastward motion at an even faster forward speed is expected through Thursday. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by Thursday night. The center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores late tonight or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours. Check out the latest cone & track forecast from Advisory 38A. .
• Update: Hurricane Lorenzo is maintaining its strength as it heads toward the Azores, expected to bring hurricane conditions to portions of the Azores early tomorrow. At 11:00 a.m. AST (3:00 p.m. UTC), Hurricane Lorenzo was located near 35.2N, 37.9W, about 470 miles (755 km) SW of Flores in the western Azores, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph (155 km/h). All previous warnings remain in effect (Advisory #37, hnc.noaa.gov).
• Update: On 30 September at 11:00 p.m. AST (3:00 a.m UTC), Hurricane Lorenzo was located near 32.0N, 41.2W, about 690 miles (1110 km) SW of the Azores, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h). Lorenzo is forecast to slowly weaken tomorrow due to the cyclone moving over progressively cooler waters. The hurricane should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward speed during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday. Advisory #35, nhc.noaa.gov

• Update: At 5:00 p.m. AST (9:00 p.m. UTC), Hurricane Lorenzo was located near 30.9N, 42.1W, about 990 miles (1,590 km) WSW of the Azores, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h) (Advisory #34, nhc.noaa.gov)
• Update: At 11:00 a.m. AST (3:00 p.m. UTC), Hurricane Lorenzo was located near 30.0N, 42.6W, about 1,050 miles (1,685 km) WSW of the Azores. Max. sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h). Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the NE is expected later today, with an increasing forward speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday. The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has issued a Hurricane Warning for the central and western Azores, including the islands of Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira. The Institute has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the eastern Azores, including the islands of Sao Miguel and Santa Maria. Lorenzo is expected to transition to an extratropical low by Thursday. (Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory #33 - nhc.noaa.gov)
• Update: We've uploaded the latest cone & track forecast by NHC (Advisory #32A), click here to view its interactive version on any Windy layer.
• Update: We've uploaded the latest cone & track forecast by NHC (Advisory #30), click here to view its interactive version on any Windy layer.
  

• Update: At 5:00 p.m. AST (9:00 p.m. UTC), the center of (now Category 3) Hurricane Lorenzo was located near 26.9N, 44.2W, with max. sustained winds near 115 mph (185 km/h). Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected on Monday with a gradual increase in forward speed through Wednesday. Gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of days, but Lorenzo is expected to remain a large hurricane throughout that time. Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores. Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

• Update: Lorenzo peak intensity was reached on Friday 27th around 09:00 UTC (max. pressure 937 Hpa, max. sustained winds of 145 mph (126 kts or 233 km/h), gusts up to 173 mph (150 kts or 278 km/h). Lorenzo should be downgraded as a cat 1 hurricane before it reaches Acores islands. Impacts on the region are still expected to be intense and dangerous.

Previous Lorenzo coverage

Hurricane Lorenzo strengthened to a Category3 hurricane on Thursday morning in the eastern Atlantic, continued to rapidly intensifying, to become a hi-end Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130mph around 11 a.m.

Lorenzo is forecast to remain over the eastern Atlantic, making a turn to the northwest by Thursday night into Friday, heading towards Europe.

Although there’s no direct threat to the land, Lorenzo is likely to affect the weather in Portugal, Spain, UK, Ireland, and possibly Iceland. Despite previous disagreement, 10-day forecasts of both forecasting models suggest this.

Lorenzo is the fifth hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, and the third major one (the others were Dorian and Humberto).

Colorado State University hurricane research scientist Phil Klotzbach puts Lorenzo in the context on Twitter.

Lorenzo has maximum winds of 125 mph at ~40°W. Only one Atlantic #hurricane has had winds >=125 mph farther east in the Atlantic on record (Julia in 2010).

“You won’t find anything comparable in that part of the basin for strength and size except for Gabrielle 1989, and that was several degrees west,” NHC’s meteorologist Eric Blake pointed out on Twitter.

If you ask yourself whether it could be a sign of climate change, well, it could. “Lorenzo is also only the 10th major hurricane east of 40W in all of the Atlantic records. Probably no coincidence that 5 of them have been during the past 10 years,” Blake tweeted.

https://www.windy.com/upload/5d94cd0665aa62001a3ccc4e?satellite,38.651,-31.729,4,internal

[idefix37]

@pavelneuman
Hi, the Azores archipelago is not considered as land? Lorenzo threats really them

[Greg from Corvo]

@idefix37 aparerntly not

[Gabou971]

Yeah sad to see that Islands are too often forgotten ... Yes they are land and people live on it by the way :)

And Lorenzo is now the most intense hurricane ever recorded so far east (~ 40° W) in the Atlantic. Last one was hurricane Helene in 1988. But it reached the same intensity 400 miles west of current lorenzo position and much more south! Julia in 2010 reached its peak intensity on 33°W, 115 knots windspeed.

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Lorenzo peak intensity was reached on Friday 27th around 09:00 UTC:

Minimal pressure : 937 Hpa.
Wind: 145 mph or 126 kts or 233 km/h.
Gusts: up to 173 mph or 150 kts or 278 km/h.

Lorenzo should be downgraded as a cat 1 hurricane before it reaches Acores islands. Impacts on the region are still expected to be intense and dangerous.
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It's been 3 years hurricanes have been breaking records in the Atlantic basin... Irma, Maria, Dorian, Lorenzo...I'm not sure it's a coincidence.

As forecasted, hurricanes are becoming more powerful, they form earlier next to Africa and then affect directly Europe. It's crazy.