Tropical Storm Perla (21W) updates



    • Update: Neoguri (Perla) continues to intensify and becomes a Category 1 typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). As of 6:00 UTC, it was last spotted at about 700 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan, with 1-minute maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h (65 knots) and gustiness up to 150 km/h (80 knots). It might still intensify within the next 12 hours as the passing mid-latitude trough from China enhances the poleward outflow of the circulation, and the system remains intact in a favorable environment, while moving in a poleward track. The latest forecast shows that it will continue to move towards the Ryukyu Islands, and begins to gradually weaken as the shear increases and the sea-surface temperature will start to cool.

    • Update: Defying all odds, Neoguri (Perla) intensified further into a Severe Tropical Storm, according to JTWC's warning #11. As of 0:00 UTC it was located about 800 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan and is now having 1-minute maximum sustained winds of up to 102 km/h (55 knots) and gustiness of up to 130 km/h (70 knots). It is expected to still intensify later today while moving poleward. Based on latest forecast, it is not anymore expected to hit the Philippines and will remain over the sea throughout the forecast period, though it might pass near Okinawa, Japan on Monday. It defied odds since all previous forecasts showed that it should be weakening already into a Low Pressure Area with its interaction with the northeast monsoon (amihan).

    • Update: Perla (21W) intensified into a Tropical Storm, according to JTWC's warning #5. It is now having maximum sustained winds of up to 65 km/h (35 knots) and gusts of up to 83 km/h (45 knots). It is currently moving westwards towards Batanes-Babuyan Group of Islands. It is not expected to landfall as a tropical cyclone since it will be weakened by its interaction with the northeast monsoon (amihan), but will still bring light to moderate to at times heavy rains over Extreme Northern Luzon this weekend.

    photo:Windy.com;Tropical Storm Perla;

    Tropical Depression 21W is a newly-formed system that was named Perla in the Philippines. It continues to move slowly towards the Batanes-Babuyan Group of Islands, and has maintained its strength.

    As of UTC 02:00 P.M., the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the weather agency for the Philippines, #PerlaPH was spotted at 780 km. East of Basco, Batanes, with coordinates - 19.8°N, 129.4°E. It has a maximum sustained winds of 55 kph, and gusts of up to 70 kph.

    The models has shifted the forecast track, and therefore, the system is not expected to make landfall in the landmass of Luzon. Within the next 24-48 hours, TD "Perla" will track westward towards the Batanes-Babuyan area. It is expected to gradually weaken due to the surge of the Northeast Monsoon.

    PAGASA has advised that the TD "Perla" may bring scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms in the aforementioned areas due its circulation, including the province of Apayao.

    https://www.windy.com/upload/5daa99e95729ec001930d14f?32.666,140.950,4,internal



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