Cyclonic activity could restart over Indian Ocean
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North Indian Ocean is quiet since cyclone Hikaa that evolved in Arabian Sea during September. This pause could end in the next few days. Context is becoming favorable in the Indian Ocean for a resurgence of cyclonic activity. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is in phase 2, which means that an active phase has begun to cross Indian Ocean.
A suspect area numbered 97A over Arabian Sea is under surveillance. The global models suggest a futur cyclogenesis from this suspect area. ASCAT data shows a low level circulation centered in the north-west of Lakshadweep. Environment appear favorable for further development with low to moderate shear, strong divergence and very warm sea surface temperature.
However, 97A should approach the west coast of India. The proximity of land could hinder its development. The future of this low is therefore still uncertain. The situation will be closely monitored for the coastal regions of the Indian states of Karnataka, Maharashtra and Gujarat. It's not exclude that cyclonic storm stage could be reach during the next 48 to 72 hours. The next name on the cyclone list is Kyarr, name proposed by Myanmar.
For information, September/October/November period is usually the second peak of cyclone activity of the year in the North Indian Ocean.
Patrick
Cyclone Chaser 2.0, I am passionate about these phenomena and I share my passion on my blog cycloneoi.com
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