@idefix37 thank you for all answers. The only thing which is not clear: you showed that way to compare forcast with the reality... But I can not find how long time forcast is there on the chart. If model A seams more accurate than model B in 1 day forcast that does not mean it is better in 3-5-10 days forcast. so how long term does it compare models?
Best posts made by BPeti72
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RE: Forcast by the time the model is refreshing...
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RE: Forcast by the time the model is refreshing...
@gkikas-lgpz sorry, i didnt mean that meteorologysts are fortune tellers. Not at all... The model itself is inaccurate this is why i told this and my English is not good enough to tell you what i really think. sorry!
Latest posts made by BPeti72
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RE: Forcast by the time the model is refreshing...
@gkikas-lgpz sorry, i didnt mean that meteorologysts are fortune tellers. Not at all... The model itself is inaccurate this is why i told this and my English is not good enough to tell you what i really think. sorry!
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RE: Forcast by the time the model is refreshing...
@korina I know, you are right and of course i compare them, but it's not easy. Not too much rain here, so i can compare the last few days which model was better, but that is temperature....
I'd like to know which model is more accurate for the weekend, coz all of them shows rain, but they are pretty different in time. If there were a statistical publication for each model's x day accuracy, it would be easier... Ok, it is unable to get such a data for every spot, that would be more than huge... I feel weather forcast is like a fortune teller :) Btw. I'm an engineer, so i like exact things, but i know it is not easy in this case... Now It's clear for me that it is impossible to privide what I was asking :) -
RE: Forcast by the time the model is refreshing...
@idefix37 said in Forcast by the time the model is refreshing...:
However the parameters which are compared are not those which are directly interesting at ground surface (some years ago msl pressure was compared). And regional models with a higher resolution are not included.
so it is not good for what i wanted to use it. :) No problem, it is not your fault. I just dont understand why every company is hiding... but maybe it is financial thing. Well... thank you for your help! :)
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RE: Forcast by the time the model is refreshing...
@idefix37 I don't know why but there is no such a comparision of the 24-48 hours forcasted weather vs reality. Not just here, but almost nowhere... Meteorology is a strange thing... everyone is forcasting, but almost noone checks (or it is not public) how good their model is. People have to chose models according to advertisments insted of data...
Do you know any page where we can see how good each forcast for a longer period? I know there are forums, but it is highly personal how you feel about a model... If someone use a model for his / her wedding ceremony and it fails, they will feel this model is useless... while others reporting this model is superior than the other because it was better 3 times when he went out for a long ride... :) -
RE: Forcast by the time the model is refreshing...
@idefix37 thank you for all answers. The only thing which is not clear: you showed that way to compare forcast with the reality... But I can not find how long time forcast is there on the chart. If model A seams more accurate than model B in 1 day forcast that does not mean it is better in 3-5-10 days forcast. so how long term does it compare models?
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RE: Forcast by the time the model is refreshing...
@idefix37 Thank you very much, it is really helpful, I didn't even know it exists.
My real problem is that it is said ECMWF is updated 4x a day. When the model said it was updated a minute ago (10am local time) The prediced weather was way off compared to the reality... So what a model is which can not forcast 0 minutes ahead? :o This is what i dont understand.
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RE: Forcast by the time the model is refreshing...
@idefix37 I can not send screenshot from the past, but it was in Budapest (Hungary) this morning. Around 10am CET
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Forcast by the time the model is refreshing...
Hi! My English is pretty bad, but i hope you'll understand me. :) Today it was rainy here but neither of the models forcasted rain. No problem, thats life. BUT ...
when I can see that ECMWF updated just a few minutes ago I would excpect that the weather "forcast" is pretty accurate by that time... Not this is the case. It was raining and around 24C. The model "forcasted" cloudy weather and 30C ...
Now I dont understand what model update means and i feel premium subscription is useless... Every weather app can forcast random weathers... and most of them are accurate for the current weather. :)Can you describe what's happening exactly and what does update means on a model?