“Strangely, the GFS is showing 22 km. Let’s wait for the upcoming upgrades—changes to the American model are expected.”
And here’s the follow-up I gave, also in English:
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You’re absolutely right, Weather Analyst Helail. The 22 km resolution currently shown by the GFS gives us a rough idea, but it’s still not fully accurate—especially with this relatively long forecast range.
Upcoming upgrades to the model could make a noticeable difference, especially if they include changes to the physical parameters or improvements in resolving the lower atmospheric layers. That’s something we could very well see during this Wasm season.
Model shifts with the GFS usually become clearer within the 144-hour range or less—that’s when moisture profiles and upper-level trough dynamics start aligning better, and the model becomes more consistent between runs.
Have you noticed if the ECMWF (European model) has started to pick up signals more clearly than the GFS? Or maybe you’re seeing interesting patterns in the Canadian or ICON models you’d like to compare?
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Let me know if you’d like it in a more technical tone or if you want it posted somewhere.))