With Super Typhoon Hagibis gone last week, let’s wrap up several records that beast broke. As Hagibis’ pressure dropped to 904 hPa, it achieved a Maximum 1-minute sustained winds of up to 260 km/h (140 knots) that made it into a Category 5 in SSHS while over the Philippine Sea. Its Maximum wind gusts reached 315 km/h (170 knots). This made Hagibis the strongest in the Western Pacific for 2019. One of its outstanding characteristics is its very large size that reached 1,400 km. in diameter, making it officially the 2nd largest tropical cyclone in recorded history (second to STY Tip in 1979 with about 2,200 km diamater). Typhoon Faxai had a much smaller size with a diameter of 400 km. Upon landfall, it induced strong wind gusts that damaged a lot of structures even in the city of Tokyo, where 158 km/h wind gust was recorded - strongest in Tokyo City’s records.

Aside from wind records, Hagibis also became the wettest typhoon in Japan’s recorded history by inducing 922.5 mm of rain in just 24 hours over Hakone, Kanagawa in Japan. The torrential rains across central Japan lead to widespread flooding that killed at least 58 people, hundred injured, and thousands of home either damaged or without power until today, October 15.

• Update: As Typhoon Hagibis exits Japan, becoming extratropical, JTWC has issued the final warning (#31). At 6:00 p.m. UTC, the center of Typhoon Hagibis was located near 38.6N 141.9E, moving 295 degrees at 17 kts, with max. sustained winds of 65 kt, with higher gusts of 80 kt. The position at 9:00 p.m. UTC was near 39.7N 143.8E, approximately 113 miles south-southeast of Misawa, Japan. Hagibis has tracked northeastward at 36 knots over the past six hours. Animated enhanced infrared (EIR) satellite imagery depicts deep convection poleward and eastward of the low level circulation system, indicating that Typhoon Hagibis is becoming extratropical.
  

• Update: Typhoon Hagibis is now in the vicinity of Saitama City at 1:00 P.M. UTC today (October 12, 2019), according to the latest data from Japan Meteorological Agency. It is moving Northeast at 45 km/h. The central pressure is 965 hPa and the maximum wind speed near the center is 130 km/h, gusting to 185 km/h. This typhoon will eventually exit the landmass and return to Pacific Ocean later. Afterwards, it will become a fully extratropical cyclone and reach the east of Kuril Is., by tomorrow evening (local time, October 13).

• Update: Typhoon Hagibis now shattering all-time record rainfall amount. The town of Hakone in Kanagawa Prefecture have recorded a 942 mm/hr within 24 hours, a record-breaking amount, which is equivalent of three times the normal amount of rainfall in the month of October. Meanwhile, the district of Yugashima in Shizuoka Prefecture have also set a record with 717 mm/hr, and the city of Shima with 409 mm/hr.

• Update: Emergency warnings have raised in some areas in Japan. Due to widespread torrential rainfall brought by Typhoon "Hagibis", the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) have raised the highest level of warning (heavy rains) in the prefectures of Ibaraki, Tochigi, Niigata, Fukushima, Miyagi, Shizuoka, Kanagawa, Tokyo, Saitama, Gunma, Yamanashi and Nagano.

• The town of Hakone in Kanagawa Prefecture have now received a 903.5 mm (35.6") of rainfall accumulation in the last 18 hours, due to torrential rains brought by Typhoon "Hagabis" (UKMET). This is one of the highest amount of precipitation in Japanese history.

• Update: Typhoon Hagibis has made landfall at Izu Peninsula in Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan at 11:00 A.M. UTC today (October 12, 2019), according to Japan Meteorological Agency. It was last spotted at 35.2°N, 139.1°E, with 10-min maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h near the center and gusts up to 195 km/h. The direction now at NNE with an accelerating speed of 35 km/h. The central pressure is 960 hPa.

• Update: Typhoon Hagibis weakens into a Category 2 typhoon, with 10-min winds of 165 km/h, and 1-min winds of 155 km/h, but remains to be a destructive and powerful storm as it approaches Japan. The outer rainbands of the typhoon are now affecting the large portion of the country. It is expected to make landfall in Kanto Region later today (October 12). The Japan Meteorological Agency has raised the "special" heavy rainfall warning, the highest level of warning, to the prefectures of Kanagawa, Shizuoka, Saitama, Gunma, Yamanashi and Nagano prefectures.

• 24,000 households in Kanto Region are without electricity because of the typhoon. As of 4:00 p.m. (local time), the power is down in parts of Chiba, Shizuoka, Tochigi, Yamanash, Ibaraki, Tokyo, Gunma, Saitama and Kanagawa prefectures [NHK Japan].

• Airlines in Japan canceled more than 1,600 domestic flights on Saturday due to a powerful typhoon. Japan Airlines has canceled 543 flights across the country and all Nippon Airways has canceled 569 flights, including all those to and from Haneda and Narita.

• Update: Super Typhoon Hagibis forced the organizers of the Rugby World Cup to cancel games on Saturday. The decision came after both the cities of Toyota and Yokohama are threatened by the destructive winds of Hagibis that is expected to be on late Saturday (October 12). According to Japan Meteorological Agency, Hagibis will still be a "Very Strong" Typhoon upon landfall near Metro Tokyo on late Saturday and will be unleashing 10-minute maximum sustained winds of up to 157 km/h (85 kts) and gusts may reach 220 km/h (120 kts). Aside from direct landfall of the eye, the large circulation of the typhoon is also a concern since it can cover the whole Honshu island with tropical storm-force winds. As compared with Typhoon Faxai (diameter: 400 km.) that passed near Tokyo last month, Hagibis is much larger with 1,400 km in diameter.

• Update: Category-5 Super Typhoon Hagibis has reached its peak with maximum 1-minute sustained winds of up to 260 km/h and gustiness of up to 315 km/h. It is expected to gradually weaken while moving towards Japan this weekend. Based on the latest forecast from JTWC, it is expected to pass near Tokyo between Late Saturday to Early Sunday, still at typhoon intensity. View the latest typhoon Hagibis forecast cone and track on any Windy layer (JTWC Warning #21).

• Update: Category 5-Super Typhoon Hagibis is expected to slightly weaken before nearing Japan this weekend, but it will still be a strong typhoon while near Metro Tokyo region by Saturday. Both Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) are forecasting that this will pass near Metro Tokyo with maximum sustained winds of above 150 km/h and gusts in excess of 200 km/h. According to broadcast meteorologist Sayaka Mori, if it will hit the region with a pressure lower than 960 hPa, this would be the most intense since records began.

• Update: Category 5-Super Typhoon Hagibis continues to grow in size, wherein it is now large enough to cover the Philippines if it will directly pass through the islands, though according to forecast from JTWC, it is not expected to directly impact the Philippines. It will recurve towards Honshu island in Japan this weekend.

• Update: Hagibis re-intensified and is now back at being a Category 5-Super Typhoon while over the Philippine Sea. This happened after its eyewall replacement cycle that provided it with a much larger and distinct eye. At 6:00 P.M. UTC, the center of Super Typhoon Hagibis was located near 19.2N 140.8E, moving north-northwest at 14 mph, with max. sustained winds of 155 mph (250 km/h), with higher gusts of 196 mph (315 km/h) and might reach its peak intensity within the next 24 hours. It is currently over the Philippine Sea and is not anymore expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). It is expected to head towards Japan this weekend. Based on JTWC's latest track, it might pass near Tokyo while still at Typhoon intensity this weekend. View the latest typhoon Hagibis forecast cone and track on any Windy layer (JTWC Warning #15).

• Update: Hagibis completed its eyewall replacement cycle. A larger eye can already be seen from the latest satellite image. With this, it could re-intensify again into a Category 5-equivalent Super Typhoon while over the Philippine Sea. It is expected to gradually weaken before hitting Honshu island in Japan this weekend, but it will still be at Typhoon intensity.

• Update: Hagibis slightly weakened, but still at Category 4-Super Typhoon while over the Philippine Sea. At 12:00 A.M. UTC, the center of Typhoon Hagibis was located near 17.7N 142.6E, moving 305 degrees at 13 kts, with max. sustained winds of 135 kt, with higher gusts of 165 kt. It is currently over the Philippine Sea and is expected to head towards Japan later this week. Based on JTWC's latest track, it might pass near Tokyo while still having Typhoon intensity this weekend. View the latest typhoon Hagibis forecast cone and track on any Windy layer (JTWC Warning #13).

• Update: An eyewall replacement cycle is currently ongoing with Super Typhoon Hagibis that may lead to its temporary weakening within the next 12 hours. After this, another intensification is possible while it is over the Philippine Sea due to, still, favorable environment.

• Update: Hagibis' sustained winds and gusts remain at the same levels as in previous update. At 6:00 p.m. UTC, the center of Typhoon Hagibis was located near 16.1N 146.7E, moving 295 degrees at 17 kts, with max. sustained winds of 140 kt, with higher gusts of 170 kt. At 9:00 pm. UTC, the center of Hagibis was located near 16.8N 144.4E, approximately 168 NM north of Andersen AFB. Over the past six hours, Hagibis tracked west-northwestward at 17 knots. View the latest typhoon Hagibis forecast cone and track on any Windy layer (JTWC Warning #11).

• Update: At 12:00 p.m. UTC, the center of Typhoon Hagibis was located near 16.1N 146.7E, moving 295 degrees aT 16 kts, with max. sustained winds of 140 kt, with higher gusts of 170 kt. At 3 p.m. UTC, Hagibis was located near 16.4N 146.0E, approx. 178 miles from Andersen AFB, Guam (JTWC Warning #10).

• Update: Hagibis is now a Category 5-Super Typhoon after its maximum sustained winds reached 160 mph (260 kph) according to JTWC. This is the 2nd Category 5 this year, after Super Typhoon Wutip reached the same criteria last February.

• Update: Hagibis has intensified into a Super Typhoon (Category 4-equivalent to Saffir-Simpson Scale) and is heading towards Northern Mariana Islands later today. It was max. sustained winds of 150 mph (240 kph), with higher gusts of 185 mph (298 kph). It is expected to pass through Northern Mariana Islands late Monday. It is still expected to further intensify into a Category 5-equivalent within the next 24 hours.(JTWC Warning #9).

• Update: Different forecast models and even the JTWC are already indicating that Hagibis could intensify into a Super Typhoon within the next 12-24 hours. At 12:00 a.m. UTC, the ECMWF Model is indicating that Typhoon Hagibis (20W, 哈吉貝, 台風201919号, TY201919) could achieve minimum central pressure of 897 hPa on October 9, which is almost equivalent to Super Typhoon Haiyan with 895 hPa, while the UKMO Model is suggesting that it could even be much stronger with 879 hPa on October 11 that is already near the record of Super Typhoon Tip (1979) with 870 hPa. GFS is the least aggresive of the three with 925 hPa on October 10, but still at Super Typhoon intensity. These peak intensities are expected to be achieved while the typhoon is over the Philippine Sea. Check out the latest JTWC cone & track forecast on any Windy layer (Warning #8).

• Update: Hagibis has intensified into an intense typhoon equivalent to Category 3 in Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. At 12:00 a.m. UTC (October 7), the center of Typhoon Hagibis (20W, 哈吉貝, 台風201919号, TY201919) was located near 15.1N 149.5E, moving 280 degrees AT 16 kts, with max. sustained winds of 100 kts, with higher gusts of 125 kts. It is expected to pass through Northern Mariana Islands late Monday and further intensify into a Super Typhoon while over the Philippine Sea.(JTWC Warning #8).

• Update: At 9:00 p.m. UTC, Typhoon Hagibis (20W) was located near 15.1N, 150.3E, approx. 368 NM east-northeast of Andersen AFB, Guam, and has tracked west-northwestward at 14 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height at 6:00 p.m. is 23 feet. Check out the latest JTWC cone & track forecast on any Windy layer (Warning #7).

• Update: Hagibis has strengthened to a Typhoon. At 6:00 p.m. UTC, the center of Typhoon Hagibis (20W, 哈吉貝, 台風201919号, TY201919) was located near 14.9N 151.1E, moving 285 degrees AT 14 kts, with max. sustained winds of 65 kt, with higher gusts of 80 kt (JTWC Warning #7).

Previous Hagibis coverage

Tropical Storm Hagibis (20W) is expected to intensify into a Typhoon before passing through Northern Marian Islands on Monday. Based on JTWC’s forecast and both the GFS and ECMWF models, it could reach Super Typhoon status later in the week before moving towards southern Japan.

Tropical Storm Hagibis continues to intensify while approaching Northern Mariana Islands on Monday. This system started as a Low Pressure Area near Marshall Islands last Thursday, and was first designated as a Tropical Depression last Saturday. Once upgraded into a Tropical Storm, it was given the name “Hagibis”- a name contributed by the Philippines which means “swift”. This is the 19th named Tropical Cyclone for 2019 in the Western Pacific Basin.

As of 12:00 a.m. UTC of October 6, the storm was located near 14.9N, 155.8E, moving west at the speed of 21 mph (33 km/h) with maximum sustained winds of up to 45 mph (72 km/h) and gusts of up to 55 mph (89 km/h) (JTWC Warning #4). Based on the latest track, it is expected to pass through the Northern Mariana Islands as a Typhoon on on Monday evening or Tuesday morning.

The forecast of JTWC and both the GFS and ECMWF models indicate that this storm could become a Super Typhoon later this week, with 1-minute maximum sustained winds exceeding 150 mph (210 km/h) by Thursday (Oct. 10) or Friday (Oct. 11). The forecasts are still showing that while it might enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility, it will eventually recurve towards southern Japan.

Since the data are still of the long-range forecasts, there are still uncertainties with its actually landfall area, that’s why both those in northern Taiwan and Japan are advised to closely monitor this development.

Ralph Lauren Abainza

A college student in the Philippines, a Disaster Risk Reduction advocate and a weather enthusiast. The founder of Earth Shaker. Follow us on Facebook and Twitter.

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• Update: Tropical Storm Bualoi (22W) becomes the 21st named tropical cyclone this year and it keeps intensifying. Based on the latest update by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the 1-min winds has increased to 85 km/h (45 knots), while the Japan Meteorological Agency also increases the 10-min winds to 65 km/h (35 knots). It is now moving West at 25 km/h. It will continue to move its current track for the next few days, due to strong subtropical ridge in the North Pacific Ocean. Afterwards, it will then move in a more West-Northwest to Northwest track as the subtropical ridge weakens. The forecast as of this moment, it will not enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility and might recurve to Japan by late next week.

The newly-formed Tropical Storm (22W) near Marshall Islands is seen to become a typhoon and may affect Mariana Islands this coming week. Once upgraded into a Tropical Storm, it will be named BUALOI (a Thai dessert). As of 6:00 UTC, the system was located around 1,360 km SE of Dededo, Guam with 1-minute maximum sustained winds of up to 65 km/h (35 knots) and gusts of up to 83 km/h (45 knots). It is moving northwest at and 30 km/h.

Based on JTWC's Forecast (Warning #2) and from both GFS and ECMWF models, it is expected to further intensify in the coming days and may pass through Mariana Islands between Monday and Tuesday as a Typhoon. The Maximum wind forecast of both the ECMWF and GFS models show that parts of Mariana islands may experience tropical storm to typhoon-force winds between Monday and Tuesday.

Current model runs indicate that this will not hit the Philippines and may eventually recurve towards Japan by weekend. All are still advised to monitor for possible changes in the long-range forecast.

Ralph Lauren Abainza

A college student in the Philippines, a Disaster Risk Reduction advocate and a weather enthusiast. The founder of Earth Shaker. Follow us on Facebook and Twitter.

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According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, up to three tropical cyclones could form in the Northwest Pacific Basin within the next 7 days, which could affect the Philippines, Taiwan, Guam, and the recently-affected Japan.

Tropical Depression 95W

A Tropical Depression (95W) remains just northeast of Palau and is slowly organizing. According to Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), this could intensify into a Tropical Storm and have the international name “Peipah”.

Once it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility, it will be named “Marilyn”. Its trough is affecting the eastern section of the country, and as it moves north, it is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that could bring rains and gusty winds over the western sections of the Philippines in the coming days.

Until now, its future track is still uncertain due to low model consensus. ECMWF model is showing possible approach towards Taiwan-southern Japan Area, while GFS Model is showing that it will stall just northeast of the Philippines and interact with the other cyclones.

Other Potential Tropical Cyclones

As of the moment, the ECMWF and GFS models are indicating the formation of tropical cyclones within the next 7 days and linger around the basin, but the future track remains uncertain. Interests in Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines are advised to monitor this development.

Here’s ECMWF Model showing multiple Low Pressure Systems in the Northwest Pacific Basin by weekend.

The leftmost is 95W (Peipah) and the rest are still not yet being monitored by forecasting agencies, but these could develop into tropical cyclones in the coming days.

https://www.windy.com/?2019-09-15-09,16.145,162.347,4,i:pressure,internal

Changing from the earlier forecasts, Category 5-Super Typhoon Hagibis is now expected to impact central Japan, including Tokyo, this weekend. The possibility of a strong typhoon bearing down Honshu raises concern on the both the Rugby World Cup and F1 race being held in Japan this month.

According to the latest forecast track from Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) (JTWC Warning #15), Super Typhoon Hagibis is expected to move poleward in the coming days and will reach Japan this weekend. Even if it is expected to gradually weaken while moving towards Japan, it is still expected to be a strong typhoon upon reaching central Japan.

Due to its large size, some rains and gusty winds could already be felt as early as Friday in central Japan, but its peak winds and heavy rains will impact the area, possibly including Tokyo, on October 12 (Saturday) to October 13 (Sunday). Based on JTWC’s warning, the area could experience maximum sustained winds of more than 160 kph (80 kt) and gusts of more than 185 kph (100 kt). The damaging wind and heavy rains could severely affect the cities on its path, together with the games.

The organizers of the Rugby World Cup already warned that the storm could impact the final weekend of the tournament. This threatens the pivotal games in the cup that will be held in Yokohama that is expecting a possible direct hit from Hagibis. England and France will play on Saturday, while Japan and Scotland will play on Sunday. While robust plans were being prepared by the organizers, if a match is cancelled, there will be 0-0 draw.

Follow our Typhoon Hagibis coverage here.

Ralph Lauren Abainza

A college student in the Philippines, a Disaster Risk Reduction advocate and a weather enthusiast. The founder of Earth Shaker. Follow us on Facebook and Twitter.

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• Update: Neoguri (Perla) continues to intensify and becomes a Category 1 typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). As of 6:00 UTC, it was last spotted at about 700 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan, with 1-minute maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h (65 knots) and gustiness up to 150 km/h (80 knots). It might still intensify within the next 12 hours as the passing mid-latitude trough from China enhances the poleward outflow of the circulation, and the system remains intact in a favorable environment, while moving in a poleward track. The latest forecast shows that it will continue to move towards the Ryukyu Islands, and begins to gradually weaken as the shear increases and the sea-surface temperature will start to cool.

• Update: Defying all odds, Neoguri (Perla) intensified further into a Severe Tropical Storm, according to JTWC's warning #11. As of 0:00 UTC it was located about 800 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan and is now having 1-minute maximum sustained winds of up to 102 km/h (55 knots) and gustiness of up to 130 km/h (70 knots). It is expected to still intensify later today while moving poleward. Based on latest forecast, it is not anymore expected to hit the Philippines and will remain over the sea throughout the forecast period, though it might pass near Okinawa, Japan on Monday. It defied odds since all previous forecasts showed that it should be weakening already into a Low Pressure Area with its interaction with the northeast monsoon (amihan).

• Update: Perla (21W) intensified into a Tropical Storm, according to JTWC's warning #5. It is now having maximum sustained winds of up to 65 km/h (35 knots) and gusts of up to 83 km/h (45 knots). It is currently moving westwards towards Batanes-Babuyan Group of Islands. It is not expected to landfall as a tropical cyclone since it will be weakened by its interaction with the northeast monsoon (amihan), but will still bring light to moderate to at times heavy rains over Extreme Northern Luzon this weekend.

Tropical Depression 21W is a newly-formed system that was named Perla in the Philippines. It continues to move slowly towards the Batanes-Babuyan Group of Islands, and has maintained its strength.

As of UTC 02:00 P.M., the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the weather agency for the Philippines, #PerlaPH was spotted at 780 km. East of Basco, Batanes, with coordinates - 19.8°N, 129.4°E. It has a maximum sustained winds of 55 kph, and gusts of up to 70 kph.

The models has shifted the forecast track, and therefore, the system is not expected to make landfall in the landmass of Luzon. Within the next 24-48 hours, TD "Perla" will track westward towards the Batanes-Babuyan area. It is expected to gradually weaken due to the surge of the Northeast Monsoon.

PAGASA has advised that the TD "Perla" may bring scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms in the aforementioned areas due its circulation, including the province of Apayao.

https://www.windy.com/upload/5daa99e95729ec001930d14f?32.666,140.950,4,internal

• Update: Tropical Storm Bualoi (22W) becomes the 21st named tropical cyclone this year and it keeps intensifying. Based on the latest update by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the 1-min winds has increased to 85 km/h (45 knots), while the Japan Meteorological Agency also increases the 10-min winds to 65 km/h (35 knots). It is now moving West at 25 km/h. It will continue to move its current track for the next few days, due to strong subtropical ridge in the North Pacific Ocean. Afterwards, it will then move in a more West-Northwest to Northwest track as the subtropical ridge weakens. The forecast as of this moment, it will not enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility and might recurve to Japan by late next week.

The newly-formed Tropical Storm (22W) near Marshall Islands is seen to become a typhoon and may affect Mariana Islands this coming week. Once upgraded into a Tropical Storm, it will be named BUALOI (a Thai dessert). As of 6:00 UTC, the system was located around 1,360 km SE of Dededo, Guam with 1-minute maximum sustained winds of up to 65 km/h (35 knots) and gusts of up to 83 km/h (45 knots). It is moving northwest at and 30 km/h.

Based on JTWC's Forecast (Warning #2) and from both GFS and ECMWF models, it is expected to further intensify in the coming days and may pass through Mariana Islands between Monday and Tuesday as a Typhoon. The Maximum wind forecast of both the ECMWF and GFS models show that parts of Mariana islands may experience tropical storm to typhoon-force winds between Monday and Tuesday.

Current model runs indicate that this will not hit the Philippines and may eventually recurve towards Japan by weekend. All are still advised to monitor for possible changes in the long-range forecast.

Ralph Lauren Abainza

A college student in the Philippines, a Disaster Risk Reduction advocate and a weather enthusiast. The founder of Earth Shaker. Follow us on Facebook and Twitter.

https://www.windy.com/upload/5daaccf6a7a755001995a789?17.393,155.654,4,internal

• Update: Neoguri (Perla) continues to intensify and becomes a Category 1 typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). As of 6:00 UTC, it was last spotted at about 700 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan, with 1-minute maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h (65 knots) and gustiness up to 150 km/h (80 knots). It might still intensify within the next 12 hours as the passing mid-latitude trough from China enhances the poleward outflow of the circulation, and the system remains intact in a favorable environment, while moving in a poleward track. The latest forecast shows that it will continue to move towards the Ryukyu Islands, and begins to gradually weaken as the shear increases and the sea-surface temperature will start to cool.

• Update: Defying all odds, Neoguri (Perla) intensified further into a Severe Tropical Storm, according to JTWC's warning #11. As of 0:00 UTC it was located about 800 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan and is now having 1-minute maximum sustained winds of up to 102 km/h (55 knots) and gustiness of up to 130 km/h (70 knots). It is expected to still intensify later today while moving poleward. Based on latest forecast, it is not anymore expected to hit the Philippines and will remain over the sea throughout the forecast period, though it might pass near Okinawa, Japan on Monday. It defied odds since all previous forecasts showed that it should be weakening already into a Low Pressure Area with its interaction with the northeast monsoon (amihan).

• Update: Perla (21W) intensified into a Tropical Storm, according to JTWC's warning #5. It is now having maximum sustained winds of up to 65 km/h (35 knots) and gusts of up to 83 km/h (45 knots). It is currently moving westwards towards Batanes-Babuyan Group of Islands. It is not expected to landfall as a tropical cyclone since it will be weakened by its interaction with the northeast monsoon (amihan), but will still bring light to moderate to at times heavy rains over Extreme Northern Luzon this weekend.

Tropical Depression 21W is a newly-formed system that was named Perla in the Philippines. It continues to move slowly towards the Batanes-Babuyan Group of Islands, and has maintained its strength.

As of UTC 02:00 P.M., the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the weather agency for the Philippines, #PerlaPH was spotted at 780 km. East of Basco, Batanes, with coordinates - 19.8°N, 129.4°E. It has a maximum sustained winds of 55 kph, and gusts of up to 70 kph.

The models has shifted the forecast track, and therefore, the system is not expected to make landfall in the landmass of Luzon. Within the next 24-48 hours, TD "Perla" will track westward towards the Batanes-Babuyan area. It is expected to gradually weaken due to the surge of the Northeast Monsoon.

PAGASA has advised that the TD "Perla" may bring scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms in the aforementioned areas due its circulation, including the province of Apayao.

https://www.windy.com/upload/5daa99e95729ec001930d14f?32.666,140.950,4,internal

Changing from the earlier forecasts, Category 5-Super Typhoon Hagibis is now expected to impact central Japan, including Tokyo, this weekend. The possibility of a strong typhoon bearing down Honshu raises concern on the both the Rugby World Cup and F1 race being held in Japan this month.

According to the latest forecast track from Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) (JTWC Warning #15), Super Typhoon Hagibis is expected to move poleward in the coming days and will reach Japan this weekend. Even if it is expected to gradually weaken while moving towards Japan, it is still expected to be a strong typhoon upon reaching central Japan.

Due to its large size, some rains and gusty winds could already be felt as early as Friday in central Japan, but its peak winds and heavy rains will impact the area, possibly including Tokyo, on October 12 (Saturday) to October 13 (Sunday). Based on JTWC’s warning, the area could experience maximum sustained winds of more than 160 kph (80 kt) and gusts of more than 185 kph (100 kt). The damaging wind and heavy rains could severely affect the cities on its path, together with the games.

The organizers of the Rugby World Cup already warned that the storm could impact the final weekend of the tournament. This threatens the pivotal games in the cup that will be held in Yokohama that is expecting a possible direct hit from Hagibis. England and France will play on Saturday, while Japan and Scotland will play on Sunday. While robust plans were being prepared by the organizers, if a match is cancelled, there will be 0-0 draw.

Follow our Typhoon Hagibis coverage here.

Ralph Lauren Abainza

A college student in the Philippines, a Disaster Risk Reduction advocate and a weather enthusiast. The founder of Earth Shaker. Follow us on Facebook and Twitter.

https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satellite?satellite,22.095,131.099,4,internal

With Super Typhoon Hagibis gone last week, let’s wrap up several records that beast broke. As Hagibis’ pressure dropped to 904 hPa, it achieved a Maximum 1-minute sustained winds of up to 260 km/h (140 knots) that made it into a Category 5 in SSHS while over the Philippine Sea. Its Maximum wind gusts reached 315 km/h (170 knots). This made Hagibis the strongest in the Western Pacific for 2019. One of its outstanding characteristics is its very large size that reached 1,400 km. in diameter, making it officially the 2nd largest tropical cyclone in recorded history (second to STY Tip in 1979 with about 2,200 km diamater). Typhoon Faxai had a much smaller size with a diameter of 400 km. Upon landfall, it induced strong wind gusts that damaged a lot of structures even in the city of Tokyo, where 158 km/h wind gust was recorded - strongest in Tokyo City’s records.

Aside from wind records, Hagibis also became the wettest typhoon in Japan’s recorded history by inducing 922.5 mm of rain in just 24 hours over Hakone, Kanagawa in Japan. The torrential rains across central Japan lead to widespread flooding that killed at least 58 people, hundred injured, and thousands of home either damaged or without power until today, October 15.

• Update: As Typhoon Hagibis exits Japan, becoming extratropical, JTWC has issued the final warning (#31). At 6:00 p.m. UTC, the center of Typhoon Hagibis was located near 38.6N 141.9E, moving 295 degrees at 17 kts, with max. sustained winds of 65 kt, with higher gusts of 80 kt. The position at 9:00 p.m. UTC was near 39.7N 143.8E, approximately 113 miles south-southeast of Misawa, Japan. Hagibis has tracked northeastward at 36 knots over the past six hours. Animated enhanced infrared (EIR) satellite imagery depicts deep convection poleward and eastward of the low level circulation system, indicating that Typhoon Hagibis is becoming extratropical.
  

• Update: Typhoon Hagibis is now in the vicinity of Saitama City at 1:00 P.M. UTC today (October 12, 2019), according to the latest data from Japan Meteorological Agency. It is moving Northeast at 45 km/h. The central pressure is 965 hPa and the maximum wind speed near the center is 130 km/h, gusting to 185 km/h. This typhoon will eventually exit the landmass and return to Pacific Ocean later. Afterwards, it will become a fully extratropical cyclone and reach the east of Kuril Is., by tomorrow evening (local time, October 13).

• Update: Typhoon Hagibis now shattering all-time record rainfall amount. The town of Hakone in Kanagawa Prefecture have recorded a 942 mm/hr within 24 hours, a record-breaking amount, which is equivalent of three times the normal amount of rainfall in the month of October. Meanwhile, the district of Yugashima in Shizuoka Prefecture have also set a record with 717 mm/hr, and the city of Shima with 409 mm/hr.

• Update: Emergency warnings have raised in some areas in Japan. Due to widespread torrential rainfall brought by Typhoon "Hagibis", the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) have raised the highest level of warning (heavy rains) in the prefectures of Ibaraki, Tochigi, Niigata, Fukushima, Miyagi, Shizuoka, Kanagawa, Tokyo, Saitama, Gunma, Yamanashi and Nagano.

• The town of Hakone in Kanagawa Prefecture have now received a 903.5 mm (35.6") of rainfall accumulation in the last 18 hours, due to torrential rains brought by Typhoon "Hagabis" (UKMET). This is one of the highest amount of precipitation in Japanese history.

• Update: Typhoon Hagibis has made landfall at Izu Peninsula in Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan at 11:00 A.M. UTC today (October 12, 2019), according to Japan Meteorological Agency. It was last spotted at 35.2°N, 139.1°E, with 10-min maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h near the center and gusts up to 195 km/h. The direction now at NNE with an accelerating speed of 35 km/h. The central pressure is 960 hPa.

• Update: Typhoon Hagibis weakens into a Category 2 typhoon, with 10-min winds of 165 km/h, and 1-min winds of 155 km/h, but remains to be a destructive and powerful storm as it approaches Japan. The outer rainbands of the typhoon are now affecting the large portion of the country. It is expected to make landfall in Kanto Region later today (October 12). The Japan Meteorological Agency has raised the "special" heavy rainfall warning, the highest level of warning, to the prefectures of Kanagawa, Shizuoka, Saitama, Gunma, Yamanashi and Nagano prefectures.

• 24,000 households in Kanto Region are without electricity because of the typhoon. As of 4:00 p.m. (local time), the power is down in parts of Chiba, Shizuoka, Tochigi, Yamanash, Ibaraki, Tokyo, Gunma, Saitama and Kanagawa prefectures [NHK Japan].

• Airlines in Japan canceled more than 1,600 domestic flights on Saturday due to a powerful typhoon. Japan Airlines has canceled 543 flights across the country and all Nippon Airways has canceled 569 flights, including all those to and from Haneda and Narita.

• Update: Super Typhoon Hagibis forced the organizers of the Rugby World Cup to cancel games on Saturday. The decision came after both the cities of Toyota and Yokohama are threatened by the destructive winds of Hagibis that is expected to be on late Saturday (October 12). According to Japan Meteorological Agency, Hagibis will still be a "Very Strong" Typhoon upon landfall near Metro Tokyo on late Saturday and will be unleashing 10-minute maximum sustained winds of up to 157 km/h (85 kts) and gusts may reach 220 km/h (120 kts). Aside from direct landfall of the eye, the large circulation of the typhoon is also a concern since it can cover the whole Honshu island with tropical storm-force winds. As compared with Typhoon Faxai (diameter: 400 km.) that passed near Tokyo last month, Hagibis is much larger with 1,400 km in diameter.

• Update: Category-5 Super Typhoon Hagibis has reached its peak with maximum 1-minute sustained winds of up to 260 km/h and gustiness of up to 315 km/h. It is expected to gradually weaken while moving towards Japan this weekend. Based on the latest forecast from JTWC, it is expected to pass near Tokyo between Late Saturday to Early Sunday, still at typhoon intensity. View the latest typhoon Hagibis forecast cone and track on any Windy layer (JTWC Warning #21).

• Update: Category 5-Super Typhoon Hagibis is expected to slightly weaken before nearing Japan this weekend, but it will still be a strong typhoon while near Metro Tokyo region by Saturday. Both Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) are forecasting that this will pass near Metro Tokyo with maximum sustained winds of above 150 km/h and gusts in excess of 200 km/h. According to broadcast meteorologist Sayaka Mori, if it will hit the region with a pressure lower than 960 hPa, this would be the most intense since records began.

• Update: Category 5-Super Typhoon Hagibis continues to grow in size, wherein it is now large enough to cover the Philippines if it will directly pass through the islands, though according to forecast from JTWC, it is not expected to directly impact the Philippines. It will recurve towards Honshu island in Japan this weekend.

• Update: Hagibis re-intensified and is now back at being a Category 5-Super Typhoon while over the Philippine Sea. This happened after its eyewall replacement cycle that provided it with a much larger and distinct eye. At 6:00 P.M. UTC, the center of Super Typhoon Hagibis was located near 19.2N 140.8E, moving north-northwest at 14 mph, with max. sustained winds of 155 mph (250 km/h), with higher gusts of 196 mph (315 km/h) and might reach its peak intensity within the next 24 hours. It is currently over the Philippine Sea and is not anymore expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). It is expected to head towards Japan this weekend. Based on JTWC's latest track, it might pass near Tokyo while still at Typhoon intensity this weekend. View the latest typhoon Hagibis forecast cone and track on any Windy layer (JTWC Warning #15).

• Update: Hagibis completed its eyewall replacement cycle. A larger eye can already be seen from the latest satellite image. With this, it could re-intensify again into a Category 5-equivalent Super Typhoon while over the Philippine Sea. It is expected to gradually weaken before hitting Honshu island in Japan this weekend, but it will still be at Typhoon intensity.

• Update: Hagibis slightly weakened, but still at Category 4-Super Typhoon while over the Philippine Sea. At 12:00 A.M. UTC, the center of Typhoon Hagibis was located near 17.7N 142.6E, moving 305 degrees at 13 kts, with max. sustained winds of 135 kt, with higher gusts of 165 kt. It is currently over the Philippine Sea and is expected to head towards Japan later this week. Based on JTWC's latest track, it might pass near Tokyo while still having Typhoon intensity this weekend. View the latest typhoon Hagibis forecast cone and track on any Windy layer (JTWC Warning #13).

• Update: An eyewall replacement cycle is currently ongoing with Super Typhoon Hagibis that may lead to its temporary weakening within the next 12 hours. After this, another intensification is possible while it is over the Philippine Sea due to, still, favorable environment.

• Update: Hagibis' sustained winds and gusts remain at the same levels as in previous update. At 6:00 p.m. UTC, the center of Typhoon Hagibis was located near 16.1N 146.7E, moving 295 degrees at 17 kts, with max. sustained winds of 140 kt, with higher gusts of 170 kt. At 9:00 pm. UTC, the center of Hagibis was located near 16.8N 144.4E, approximately 168 NM north of Andersen AFB. Over the past six hours, Hagibis tracked west-northwestward at 17 knots. View the latest typhoon Hagibis forecast cone and track on any Windy layer (JTWC Warning #11).

• Update: At 12:00 p.m. UTC, the center of Typhoon Hagibis was located near 16.1N 146.7E, moving 295 degrees aT 16 kts, with max. sustained winds of 140 kt, with higher gusts of 170 kt. At 3 p.m. UTC, Hagibis was located near 16.4N 146.0E, approx. 178 miles from Andersen AFB, Guam (JTWC Warning #10).

• Update: Hagibis is now a Category 5-Super Typhoon after its maximum sustained winds reached 160 mph (260 kph) according to JTWC. This is the 2nd Category 5 this year, after Super Typhoon Wutip reached the same criteria last February.

• Update: Hagibis has intensified into a Super Typhoon (Category 4-equivalent to Saffir-Simpson Scale) and is heading towards Northern Mariana Islands later today. It was max. sustained winds of 150 mph (240 kph), with higher gusts of 185 mph (298 kph). It is expected to pass through Northern Mariana Islands late Monday. It is still expected to further intensify into a Category 5-equivalent within the next 24 hours.(JTWC Warning #9).

• Update: Different forecast models and even the JTWC are already indicating that Hagibis could intensify into a Super Typhoon within the next 12-24 hours. At 12:00 a.m. UTC, the ECMWF Model is indicating that Typhoon Hagibis (20W, 哈吉貝, 台風201919号, TY201919) could achieve minimum central pressure of 897 hPa on October 9, which is almost equivalent to Super Typhoon Haiyan with 895 hPa, while the UKMO Model is suggesting that it could even be much stronger with 879 hPa on October 11 that is already near the record of Super Typhoon Tip (1979) with 870 hPa. GFS is the least aggresive of the three with 925 hPa on October 10, but still at Super Typhoon intensity. These peak intensities are expected to be achieved while the typhoon is over the Philippine Sea. Check out the latest JTWC cone & track forecast on any Windy layer (Warning #8).

• Update: Hagibis has intensified into an intense typhoon equivalent to Category 3 in Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. At 12:00 a.m. UTC (October 7), the center of Typhoon Hagibis (20W, 哈吉貝, 台風201919号, TY201919) was located near 15.1N 149.5E, moving 280 degrees AT 16 kts, with max. sustained winds of 100 kts, with higher gusts of 125 kts. It is expected to pass through Northern Mariana Islands late Monday and further intensify into a Super Typhoon while over the Philippine Sea.(JTWC Warning #8).

• Update: At 9:00 p.m. UTC, Typhoon Hagibis (20W) was located near 15.1N, 150.3E, approx. 368 NM east-northeast of Andersen AFB, Guam, and has tracked west-northwestward at 14 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height at 6:00 p.m. is 23 feet. Check out the latest JTWC cone & track forecast on any Windy layer (Warning #7).

• Update: Hagibis has strengthened to a Typhoon. At 6:00 p.m. UTC, the center of Typhoon Hagibis (20W, 哈吉貝, 台風201919号, TY201919) was located near 14.9N 151.1E, moving 285 degrees AT 14 kts, with max. sustained winds of 65 kt, with higher gusts of 80 kt (JTWC Warning #7).

Previous Hagibis coverage

Tropical Storm Hagibis (20W) is expected to intensify into a Typhoon before passing through Northern Marian Islands on Monday. Based on JTWC’s forecast and both the GFS and ECMWF models, it could reach Super Typhoon status later in the week before moving towards southern Japan.

Tropical Storm Hagibis continues to intensify while approaching Northern Mariana Islands on Monday. This system started as a Low Pressure Area near Marshall Islands last Thursday, and was first designated as a Tropical Depression last Saturday. Once upgraded into a Tropical Storm, it was given the name “Hagibis”- a name contributed by the Philippines which means “swift”. This is the 19th named Tropical Cyclone for 2019 in the Western Pacific Basin.

As of 12:00 a.m. UTC of October 6, the storm was located near 14.9N, 155.8E, moving west at the speed of 21 mph (33 km/h) with maximum sustained winds of up to 45 mph (72 km/h) and gusts of up to 55 mph (89 km/h) (JTWC Warning #4). Based on the latest track, it is expected to pass through the Northern Mariana Islands as a Typhoon on on Monday evening or Tuesday morning.

The forecast of JTWC and both the GFS and ECMWF models indicate that this storm could become a Super Typhoon later this week, with 1-minute maximum sustained winds exceeding 150 mph (210 km/h) by Thursday (Oct. 10) or Friday (Oct. 11). The forecasts are still showing that while it might enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility, it will eventually recurve towards southern Japan.

Since the data are still of the long-range forecasts, there are still uncertainties with its actually landfall area, that’s why both those in northern Taiwan and Japan are advised to closely monitor this development.

Ralph Lauren Abainza

A college student in the Philippines, a Disaster Risk Reduction advocate and a weather enthusiast. The founder of Earth Shaker. Follow us on Facebook and Twitter.

https://www.windy.com/upload/5da247d4a81ce10019a1e6ce?satellite,32.806,148.535,4,internal

According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, up to three tropical cyclones could form in the Northwest Pacific Basin within the next 7 days, which could affect the Philippines, Taiwan, Guam, and the recently-affected Japan.

Tropical Depression 95W

A Tropical Depression (95W) remains just northeast of Palau and is slowly organizing. According to Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), this could intensify into a Tropical Storm and have the international name “Peipah”.

Once it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility, it will be named “Marilyn”. Its trough is affecting the eastern section of the country, and as it moves north, it is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that could bring rains and gusty winds over the western sections of the Philippines in the coming days.

Until now, its future track is still uncertain due to low model consensus. ECMWF model is showing possible approach towards Taiwan-southern Japan Area, while GFS Model is showing that it will stall just northeast of the Philippines and interact with the other cyclones.

Other Potential Tropical Cyclones

As of the moment, the ECMWF and GFS models are indicating the formation of tropical cyclones within the next 7 days and linger around the basin, but the future track remains uncertain. Interests in Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines are advised to monitor this development.

Here’s ECMWF Model showing multiple Low Pressure Systems in the Northwest Pacific Basin by weekend.

The leftmost is 95W (Peipah) and the rest are still not yet being monitored by forecasting agencies, but these could develop into tropical cyclones in the coming days.

https://www.windy.com/?2019-09-15-09,16.145,162.347,4,i:pressure,internal