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Valid: Tue 20 Aug 2019 06:00 to Wed 21 Aug 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 19 Aug 2019 21:25
Forecaster: DAFIS

• A level 2 was issued for N Italy, Austria, Slovenia, Czech Republic and Poland for severe convective wind gusts, large hail, and excessive precipitation.
• A level 2 was issued for parts of Belarus, and W Russia mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes.
• A level 2 was issued for Turkey for large hail, severe wind gusts, excessive rainfall, and tornadoes.
• A level 2 was issued for E Spain mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail.
• A level 1 was issued for N Italy, SE Switzerland, Austria, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, NW Ukraine Belarus, and W Russiaf or severe convective wind gusts, large hail, and excessive precipitation.
• A level 1 was issued for Turkey, SE Ukraine, and Georgia mainly for excessive rainfall, large hail, and tornadoes.
• A level 1 was issued for Spain mainly for severe convective wind gusts.

Synopsis

A broad trough with several embedded short-wave troughs covers a large part of the continent. A major impulse with an axis currently extending from the UK towards Spain is moving fast east and is about to result in the development of a strong jet-streak over Central Europe. Steep lapse-rates and rich low-level moisture will feed some strong thunderstorms, not only in Central Europe but also in the eastern parts of Europe.

A cut-off low over Turkey will also result in widespread storm activity and locally enhanced thermodynamic parameters will lead to severe weather events on Tue 20/08. Another hot-spot for DMC will be E Spain where abundant moisture from the warm Mediterranean will feed the inland storms.

Discussion

Italy, Austria, Slovenia, Czech Republic, and Poland

As the approaching trough results in widespread synoptic lift over C Europe, the underlying warm and moist, thus unstable, air masses will build several thunderstorms even before the maximum diurnal heat on Tue 20/08. Storms will develop in an environment characterized by 20-30 m/s DLS and 10-15 m/s 0-3km bulk shear, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE with moderate NCAPE values but still, steep low/mid-level lapse rates and supercells are well possible.

The storms will be able to travel long distances producing severe wind gusts and large hail. During the late afternoon and night some storms are expected in SE Czech Republic under a strongly sheared environment, propagating towards Poland. These storms may produce severe wind gusts and/or excessive precipitation.

Belarus, and W Russia

An almost stationary boundary exists over this area under steep lapse-rates that will build 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate to strong DLS 10-15 m/s (locally more) increase the probability for large hail and severe wind gusts.

Curved low-level hodographs also show a threat for tornadoes especially in the afternoon when 0-1 km shear is enhanced and shreh0-1km is maximized.

Turkey, SE Ukraine, and Georgia

A broad cut-off low over Turkey will create a favorable environment for DMC on Tue 20/08 and Wed 21/08. The low-level moisture advection from the Black Sea and E Mediterranean will provide the necessary fuel for diurnally driven storms. These storms will produce excessive precipitation near the core of the low-pressure system and locally there is an increased threat for large amounts of small hail accumulations.

On the periphery of the cut-off low, DLS will reach values between 15-20 m/s and storms will be able to produce large hail and severe wind gusts. Near the coasts, tornadoes are well possible given the strong low-level wind shear overlapping with 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE.

Spain

A secondary short-wave trough will provide synoptic lift to unstable air masses near the coasts of E Spain. Orographic lifting will help to overcome the low-level convective inhibition and storms are expected around noon. Near the coasts PWAT is rather high and thermodynamic parameters such as MLCAPE and DLS suggest that storms will be able to produce large hail and severe wind gusts.

More to the west of the level-2 area, the entrainment of mid-level dry air may inhibit convection, but if storms form, there is a high threat for severe wind gusts/microbursts.

The ESTOFEX forecasts are published under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 license

Valid: Thu 22 Aug 2019 06:00 to Fri 23 Aug 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 22 Aug 2019 05:27
Forecaster: GATZEN

• A level 2 was issued for northern Algeria and Tunisia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.
• A level 1 was issued for the west Mediterranean mainly for excessive precipitation and large hail.
• A level 1 was issued for the northern Balkans mainly for large hail and excessive precipitation.

Synopsis

Ridging affects a large area from western across central to eastern Europe in the wake of a lifting trough. Two mid-level vortices remain over the west Mediterranean and Turkey and will almost not progress further. At low levels, cold air advection spreads across east Europe. Northern Europe is initially affected by the lifting trough.

Discussion

North-eastern Algeria and northern Tunisia

Ahead of the west-Mediterranean trough, a westerly mid-level jet extends across northern Africa. At low levels, a cold front has entered the area. With northerly winds, high moisture advects onshore. Due to steep lapse rates at mid-levels, CAPE will build during the day, and storms are expected to initiate over the Atlas mountains. With about 15 m/s 0-3 km vertical wind shear, these storms will rapidly organize into super- and multicells, with large hail the main threat.

Especially storms that form further south where inverted-v profiles are still present or will re-develop in the afternoon will also pose a threat of severe wind gusts. Downshear development towards the east is likely with stronger storm clusters, and a cold-pool driven MCS is not ruled out in the afternoon and evening with an ongoing severe wind threat and local flooding.

West Mediterranean and northern Italy

A moist air mass has become unstable due to cool mid-levels near the base of the trough. Thunderstorms have formed and will go on during the period. Most areas expect weak shear and main threat will be excessive precipitation. However, across the west Mediterranean, stronger deep-layer shear is forecast to support multicells and supercells. Main threat will be large hail with these storms.

Northern Balkans

Storms are expected to develop along the cold front today. From Slovakia to Hungary to the northern Balkans and Romania, these storms are expected to produce large hail and excessive precipitation as they organize due to increased vertical wind shear (deep layer shear around 10-15 m/s). The threat is limited, though.

The ESTOFEX forecasts are published under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 license

Valid: Tue 10 Sep 2019 06:00 to Wed 11 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 10 Sep 2019 00:28
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

• A level 2 was issued across Balearic Islands, Cataonia and SE France coast mainly for excessive convecctive precipitation, tornadoes, large hail.
• A level 2 was issued across Sicily, Malta mainly for excessive convective precipitation and large hail.

Synopsis

A vigorous mid level low moves from Bay of Biscay via NE Spain and W Mediterranean Sea, with cold air and vorticity advection aloft meets warm humid low level air with over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE available across the Mediterranean. A shortwave ttrough passes over N Africa and S Italy. Another upper low moves northward over the Baltic Sea and Sweden with slightly unstable air.

Discussion

NW Mediterranean

In the early morning, rhe cold front of the low wraps around the Pyrenees creating a strong convergence zone with trapped warm surface air over central Catalonia and the coast, where storms easily develop. The cold air will push this zone offshore during the afternoon, shifting focus to Mallorca and Menorca. SREH is soaring esoecially in GFS to 400 n2/s2, promoting development of supercells which can cause large hail, tornadoes, high winds and flash floods. A second wave comes to the E Catalonia coast at night when the flow turns easterly, as the low passes to the south. A convergence zone will impinge on the coast with slow storm motion or training storms, creating high precipitation amounts. High low level vorticity can spawn watersputs.

Tunisia or S Italy

GFS shows good uncapped parcel availability. CAPE around 2000 J/kg south of Sicily and significant SREH predicted by GFS could support supercells producing large hail and severe wind gustsm perhaps also a tornado. In addition storms may stick to the S coast of Sicily producing large rain amounts and flash floods.

The ESTOFEX forecasts are published under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 license

Valid: Mon 23 Sep 2019 06:00 to Tue 24 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 23 Sep 2019 00:31
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

• A level 2 was issued across the east Adriatic coast mainly for excessive convective rainfall and tornadoes.
• A level 1 was issued across Italy, Adriatic Sea and western Balkan for excessive rain, large hail and tornadoes.
• A level 1 was issued for W France mainly for a chance of tornadoes.

Synopsis

Low pressure systems are found over Russia/Finland (cold), the Atlantic/Ireland and Italy/W Balkan. The latter is an active system with steep African lapse rates over a moist Mediterranean leading to 500-1500 J/kg CAPE, and a shortwave trough passing from NW Italy to Croatia, then traversing the Adriatic Sea to Albania, focusing upward motion and storm activity. The Atlantic low sends a warm unstable air plume across Bretagne and SW England at night.

Dusscusion

Italy and W Balkan

Moderate deep layer shear (15-20 m/s)and SREH (150-300 m2/s2) are sufficient for organizing some supercells which can produce large hail. Low level shear of locally 10 m/s or more is favorable for tornadogenesis. The storms benefit from upward moisture flux caused by orography, especially along the E Adriatic coast, and abundant rainfall will likely cause issues.

Bretagne

A small area where 20-25 m/s DLS and 10 m/s LLS could organize rotating updrafts with tornado chances as well as isolated severe wind gusts.

The ESTOFEX forecasts are published under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 license

Hi @anandbb @cryptonyt3, thank you for your message, but the application is automatically open in wind layer. The reason is that we want to keep the app as fast as possible. And the wind layer is catched in our service. Please follow up this link https://community.windy.com/topic/9422/how-to-change-default-start-up-layer-on-windy

In the lead-up to the UN’s International Day for the Preservation of the Ozone Layer, the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) starts to register activity in the Antarctic

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), implemented by the ECMWF on behalf of the European Union, contributes to the international efforts of preserving the ozone layer by continually monitoring and delivering high quality data about its current state. The ozone layer resides in the stratosphere, high up in our atmosphere, approximately 15 to 35 kilometres in altitude, and acts as a shield to protect human life from the effects of harmful ultraviolet radiation.

CAMS data reveals that the ozone hole in Antarctica has begun to form approximately two weeks earlier than expected, compared to the previous years. This year’s episode is also peculiar, because the CAMS data show that the ozone hole is currently off-centric and forecasts indicate signs of instability due to substantial dynamical activity in the relevant portion of the stratosphere. As a result, the spatial extent of the ozone hole is currently progressing at a substantially slower pace than usually seen. This may lead to a smaller and possibly shorter ozone hole episode.

The ozone hole first appeared decades ago, caused by harmful man-made emissions into the atmosphere of chemicals arising from aerosols, refrigerants, pesticides and solvents.
The International Day for the Preservation of the Ozone Layer was created by the United Nations to commemorate the signing of the Montreal Protocol in 1987 by 196 states and the EU, in which the main ozone-depleting chemicals were banned.

The UN day will take place on 16th September and this year’s “32 Years and healing” to mark the gradual healing of the ozone hole. In the lead-up to the day and beyond, CAMS will be monitoring the hole’s formation on a day-by-day basis. The service also producesforecasts on how the ozone hole is likely to look five days ahead.

CAMS’ operational monitoring of the ozone layer, using computer modelling in combination with satellite observations in a similar way to weather forecasts, can give a clear idea whether and how the ozone layer is healing over time as a result of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments that have banned the use of the main ozone-depleting chemicals.

Each year at the start of the Austral Spring in September, the Antarctic sees a resurgence of the ozone hole. This happens because during the Southern Hemisphere’s winter, the entire polar region is in darkness, causing a particular wind pattern, called a vortex, to form. Chemical substances accumulate within the polar vortex and remain inactive in the dark, where temperatures can fall to below -78 degrees. When the sun rises over the pole, the sun’s energy releases the formerly chemically inactive atoms into the vortex, which then, now chemically active, rapidly destroy ozone molecules and cause the ozone hole to form. [1]

CAMS information products aid observation of the ozone hole development from about mid-July until it dissolves, generally in late November or December. The ozone hole usually reaches its maximum between mid-September and early October. According to the 2018 Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion produced under the auspices of the WMO, recovery of the ozone layer to pre-1970 levels will occur around 2060.

“There is no cause for complacency,” comments Vincent-Henri Peuch, Head of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). “The recovery of the ozone layer is dependent on climate change as long-term cooling in the stratosphere can exacerbate ozone loss and delay the process. Also, the possibility of unauthorized emissions of ozone depleting substances cannot be ruled out – indeed, emissions of the second most abundant chlorofluorocarbon (CFC-11) have been detected in 2018 and they could be traced back unequivocally and action be taken. It is very important to maintain international efforts for monitoring the recovery of the ozone layer and the ozone hole events.”

More information and a 3D animation of the current status of the ozone hole is available on the CAMS website at: https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/monitoring-ozone-layer

[1] Chlorine and bromine-containing substances accumulate within the polar vortex where they remain chemically inactive in the darkness. Temperatures in the vortex can fall to below -78 degrees Celsius and ice crystals in Polar stratospheric clouds can form, which play an important part in the chemical reactions. As the sun rises over the pole, the sun’s energy releases chemically-active chlorine and bromine atoms are released in the vortex which rapidly destroy ozone molecules and cause the hole to form.

https://www.windy.com/-Ozone-layer-gtco3?gtco3,-69.190,-0.001,3,internal

Valid: Tue 24 Sep 2019 06:00 to Wed 25 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 23 Sep 2019 21:28
Forecaster: DAFIS

• A level 2 was issued for W Greece for excessive precipitation, large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes.
• A level 2 was issued for SE Greece and W Turkey for excessive precipitation, large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes.
• A level 1 was issued for Albania, North Macedonia, Greece, and Turkey for excessive precipitation and tornadoes.

Synopsis

As the jet stream enters the Mediterranean, a strong westerly flow has been established in the largest part of South Europe. Abundant low-level moisture and strong synoptic lift due to a short-wave trough which crosses the Balkans will feed numerous storms, potentially severe. In NW Europe a deep cyclone is approaching, bringing moist air masses from the Atlantic. Weak instability is forecast for this part of the continent but a few storms may form.

Disscusion

Greece, Turkey, Albania, and North Macedonia

The approaching trough from NW will provide strong lift to unstable air masses that lie over the Adriatic and the Ionian Seas and later those over the Aegean Sea. High-moisture content near the coasts of W Greece and Albania can potentially lead to high-precipitating storms. NWP models predict MLCAPE values that exceed 2000 - 2500 J/kg, overlapping with 20-25 m/s DLS and 15 m/s 0-3km bulk shear.
Moreover, low-level veering winds create a few hundreds of low/mid-level helicity, increasing the probability for supercells able to produce all kinds of severe weather. For the west coasts of Greece the main threats until 12z on Tuesday 24/09 will be large hail, severe convective wind gusts, and tornadoes. Curved low-level hodographs, more than 1000 J/g MLCAPE, strong helicity and low cloud bases are indicators for potential tornadogenesis. For the rest parts of W Greece, Albania and North Macedonia, the main threat will be excessive precipitation from training convection.

Later in the afternoon and night of Tuesday, the severe weather threat will be high in the Aegean Sea. High CIN values over Cyclades will most probably inhibit CI where CAPE is calculated to exceed 2000 J/kg. An unobstructed westerly flow will bring very moist air masses on the shores of SW Turkey as the jet stream is wrapped over Greece. Orographic features will provide strong lift to air masses characterized by more the 15 g/kg mixing ratios and PWAT is calculated to exceed locally 40 mm. Flash floods are expected in the islands of the Aegean Sea and parts of SW Turkey. A few supercells may form, able to produce tornadoes and large hail.
Finally, a convergence zone in eastern continental Greece during the night of Tuesday and early morning of Wednesday 25/09 will be also hot-spot for excessive convective precipitation.

The ESTOFEX forecasts are published under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 license

@MaribelVela Thank you for the information.

@gregwhaley1951 @jmh2002 @dave-2f @Jacobroberts08 @iopsych
Hi, thank you for your messages, we are still working on this case. Thank you for understanding.

Hi @유성현, could you tell us what exactly you mean please? If you can send us some screenshots, would be great!

Hi @arduous @idefix37 , thank you for your message. The thing is that after last update we have some issues with airports informations, probably we are missing some informations about latitude and longitude. Thank you for your patience, we are going to fix it.

Hi @h-silva, thank you for your message. I sent you email to my colleague, he'll contact you as soon as possible!

Hi @gregtt2019, I sent you an email.

Hi @hysurf, we'll check this situations and let you know as soon as possible!

Windy now supports more than 40 languages and it's been very difficult to maintain the high standard of translations. Therefore, we have decided to change the translation platfom, now we are using Crowdin. Crowdin is a user-friendly translation tool that everyone can join and improve or translate texts used at Windy.

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Valid: Thu 03 Oct 2019 06:00 to Fri 04 Oct 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 02 Oct 2019 23:40
Forecaster: GATZEN

• A level 2 was issued for Greece and surroundings mainly for excessive precipitation, large hail, and severe wind gusts.
• A level 1 was issued for the Aegean and Ionian Sea region mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts, and excessive precipitation.
• A level 1 was issued for southern Italy, Albania, and the southern Adriatic mainly for waterspouts and excessive precipitation.

Synopsis

An amplified trough migrates across Europe, and its southern edge will affect the Mediterranean. Ahead of the trough axis, a strong southerly low-level jet transports warm and moist air masses towards Greece and the Aegean. While a capping inversion will suppress convection initiation initially, strong QG forcing reduces CIN from the west during the period, and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of an approaching cold front.

Quiescent conditions are forecast for most of Europe, except for some cold sector thunderstorms in the wake of the North and Baltic Seas. Late in the period, the remnants of Hurricane Lorenzo will affect Ireland.

Discussion

Greece and Aegean Sea area

Widespread thunderstorms are forecast to spread eastward during the period. Latest models indicate large CAPE in the hail growth zone and also 20 m/s deep-layer vertical wind shear, supportive for large or very large hail with any supercell that forms. Main storm mode will be mesoscale convective systems that propagate eastwards. Next to large hail, severe wind gusts are forecast given strong 0-3 km vertical wind shear. Additionally, flash floods become increasingly a threat during the period, especially where upslope flow is present.

The northern Aegean Sea is also affected by excessive convective precipitation. Here, skinny CAPE profiles, high precipitable water, and storms moving along the same convergence zone for some time are forecast.

Southern Adriatic and Albania, Ionian Sea, southern Italy

Close to the trough axis, thunderstorms are forecast due to rich low-level moisture and steep lapse rates in relatively cold air over warm waters. Vertical wind shear is mostly weak. Locally, excessive rain is possible. Waterspouts are forecast in particular in the morning when land-breeze convergence lines are foci of convection.

Bulgaria, Romania

Some thunderstorms are forecast in a southerly flow that advects rich low-level moisture northwards. Additionally, steep lapse rates are shown by latest models. Vertical wind shear is mostly below 10 m/s and storms will be only weakly organized. Locally, excessive rain and some large hail are forecast.

Benelux and north-west Germany

Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday close to the western edge of the European trough, possibly due to low-level stretching below an upper-level front. Low-topped convection is expected. Effective shear is weak despite strong 0-6 km deep-layer shear. Weakly organized storms are forecast. Main threat are some non-supercell tornadoes or waterspouts given weak low-level shear and rather strong low-level buoyancy.

Ireland

Ex-hurricane Lorenzo moves on-shore late in the evening. Ahead of its center, a moist and unstable air mass is advected towards Ireland. Some 10s J/kg MLCAPE can develop, but instability is rather shallow and convective storms are not forecast. However, potential for some tornadoes is expected given strong low-level vertical wind shear.

The ESTOFEX forecasts are published under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 license

https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?rain,42.779,3.076,4,internal

@Avjaco Thank you very much!

Hi everyone,

Windy now supports more than 40 languages and it's been very difficult to maintain the high standard of translations. Therefore, we have decided to change the translation platfom, now we are using Crowdin. Crowdin is a user-friendly translation tool that everyone can join and improve or translate texts used at Windy.

To join this project, please use the following link:

crowdin.com/project/windycom/invite?d=m625h465m6g5f54373m463c3l4

Current translation status:

Here is some basic help for translators.

Thank you for helping us keep Windy the best weather service! :)

Hi @tiger1001, thank you for your feedback! Our app is is automatically open in wind layer. The reason is that we want to keep the app as fast as possible. And the wind layer is catched in our service. Anyway, you can choose units in the "hamburger" settings. Hope it helps!