- Update Tropical Depression Danas (06W), located approximately 20 NM south-southwest of Kunsan Air Base, has tracked north-northeastward at 11 knots over the past six hours.
There is fair confidence in the initial position which relied on animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery to reveal an asymmetric cloud signature and isolated convection to the east of, and partially obscuring, the low level circulation center (LLCC).
The initial intensity of 25 kts is consistent with surrounding surface observations of 15-25 kts and a 11:53 a.m. UTC MetOp-A ASCAT pass showing a small area of 25 kt winds near the southern tip of Korea.
Despite good poleward outflow and low vertical wind shear, the environment is unfavorable due to cool sea surface temperature and imminent landfall near Kunsan Air Base. For the duration of the forecast, TD 06W will track around the northwest periphery of a subtropical ridge.
The unfavorable conditions will cause TD 06W to dissipate by TAU 12 and cool temperatures in the sea of Japan are not expected to support re-intensification. Based on strong agreement in the model guidance, there is high confidence in the JTWC track forecast.
This is the final warning on this system by the JTWC Pearl Harbor HI. The system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration. Maximum significant wave height at 12 p.m. is 11 feet. (JTWC, 20 Jul 3 p.m. UTC)
- Update Danas is forecast to make landfall late Saturday evening, making a near-direct hit on Kunsan and passing 23 miles southeast of Osan Air Base.
- Update Danas, downgraded to a tropical depression by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, is approx. 84 NM south-southwest of Kunsan Air Base, South Korea, headed north-northeastward at 5 knots over past 6 hours. (JTWC, 20 Jul 9 a.m. UTC)
- Update Danas (06w, Falcon), located approximately 266 NM south-southwest of Kunsan Air Base, Korea, has tracked north-northeastward at 16 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height at 12 p.m. UTC is 22 feet. (JTWC 19 Jul at 3:00 p.m.)
- Update Added Himawari satellite imagery from 10:30 UTC (scroll down below the updates)
- Update Animated MSI (multispectral satellite imagery) depicts a broad, well-defined LLC (low-level circulation) with deep convective banding confined, primarily, to the eastern semicircle. A 4:25 a.m. UTC AMSR2 89ghz microwave image indicates improved banding with deep convective banding over the eastern semicircle wrapping into the north quadrant of the LLC suggesting a slight intensification trend. (JTWC 19 Jul at 9:00 a.m. UTC)
- Update Tropical Storm Danas (06W, Falcon), located approximately 374 NM south-southwest of Kunsan Air Base, Korea, has tracked northward at 11 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 22 feet (JTWC 19 Jul at 6:00 a.m. UTC).
- Update: Taiwan has issued a land and sea warning for Danas since being impacted on its path. Especially the Southern and Eastern Taiwan should be prepared for heavy winds and rainfall. According to the Korea Meteorological Administration, the landfall is expected to be made on the Korean Peninsula on Friday afternoon.
Updates are done by Windy staff, earlier coverage by Binbin0111
19 July 2019 satellite imagery
Check the current max. winds forecast, keep track of local weather warnings and stay safe!
On July 12, an area of low pressure formed near the Mariana Islands. During the next couple of days, the system slowly drifted westward while gradually organizing.
Early on July 14, the low-pressure area organized into a tropical depression to the southwest of the Mariana Islands. Later that day, the tropical depression entered the Philippine area of responsibility, and the PAGASA gave the system the name Falcon. Afterward, the system continued organizing while approaching Luzon.
July 15, 12:00 a.m. (UTC)
Location: 16.35 °N 130.5 °E (In Philippines sea)
Wind: 55 km/h, (35 mph) maintained (10-minute wind)
Pressure: 1006 mbar
On July 16, the tropical depression strengthened into a tropical storm, and the JMA named the system Danas. Shortly afterward, at 12:00 UTC that day, the JTWC upgraded Danas to a tropical storm.
At 12:00 a.m. on July 17 (PST), PAGASA reported that Danas (Falcon) had made landfall over at Gattaran, Cagayan and looped over the landmass. However, Danas's center of circulation still remained off the coast of Luzon, and the JMA and JTWC both stated that Danas did not make landfall at all.
Northeasterly wind shear had displaced much of Danas' convection to the west, and an area of low pressure had formed west of Vigan, Ilocos Sur.
This led to the formation of another area of low pressure over the western Philippines, within Danas' mass of convection, which had confused many forecasters and was also likely the source of confusion that had caused PAGASA to state that Falcon (Danas) had made landfall.
This low would later develop into another tropical depression. Later that day, the JMA reported that Danas intensified slightly to 40 kt (45 mph) winds. Later on the same day, Danas weakened back into a minimal tropical storm.
12:00 UTC, July 17
Location: 20.5°N 123.9°E
421 nmi (780 km; 484 mi) SSW of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Sustained winds: 35 kn (65 km/h; 40 mph) (10-min mean)
35 kn (65 km/h; 40 mph) (1-min mean)
Gusting to 50 kn (95 km/h; 60 mph)
Pressure: 992 hPa (29.29 inHg)
Movement:NNE at 12 kn (22 km/h; 14 mph)
A tropical depression over the eastern part of the South China Sea
On July 17, a tropical depression formed from the western part of Tropical Storm Danas, over the eastern part of the South China Sea, just off the coast of Luzon.
Deep convection associated with Tropical Storm Danas (06W / #FalconPH) has decoupled from the storm's circulation center due to persistent moderate-strong easterly wind shear. The decoupled convection is found just off the west coast of Northern Luzon, while the exposed center is now located to the northeast of the island and is moving poleward towards Japan's Ryukyu islands.
Parts of Northern and Central Luzon will continue to experience rainy weather and gusty winds today and tomorrow (Thursday), however, the rainfall accumulation forecast for most of the region until tomorrow night has significantly decreased mainly due to Danas' deep convection being displaced too far west than previously anticipated. The copious rainfall amounts that were expected to fall over the region should now remain over the South China Sea instead. Residents/visitors in the mentioned regions should remain alert.
Moreover, a new low pressure area could be forming off the west coast of Northern Luzon associated with the decoupled convection from Tropical Storm Danas. Global models show this new system slowly moving towards Taiwan and Eastern China during the next couple of days with possible weak/slight development. Residents/visitors there should closely monitor and be prepared.