@boehnkew No of course, this track is not based on only one of the models shown on Windy. More exactly the NOAA/NHC uses several models to forecast the track and intensity of hurricanes. Especially 2 specialised models HWRF and HMON, but also more conventional ones, including GFS. [image: 1663332631144-10cf872a-cb6a-4cf9-adec-b1a7f87f0f61.jpeg] From https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HWRF/index.php The Official forecast is the NOAA track shown in Windy.