Kyarr JTWC Forecast #22
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cycloneoi
@cycloneoi
Cyclone Chaser 2.0, I am passionate about these phenomena and I share my passion with my blog cycloneoi.com which is specialized about cyclones.
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RE: Your map uploadsposted in General Discussion
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RE: Your map uploadsposted in General Discussion
Kyarr JTWC Forecast 29/0300Z
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Cyclone Kyarr coverageposted in Articles
Tropical cyclone Kyarr, which has evolved in the Arabian Sea in the last week, has not impacted any area. However, it will remain as the most powerful cyclone observed for 12 years in this part of the North Indian Ocean. With an intensity of 135 kt according to the JTWC, Kyarr is one of the most intense cyclones of 2019 in the world. 2019 will probably be one of the most intense cyclonic seasons in the history of North Indian Ocean history.
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Update : Latest update of New Delhi RSMC. Kyarr weakened into a Cyclonic Storm. At 0300 UTC of 31 october, the center was located near 18.0°N and 60.2°E, about 1330 km west southwest of Mumbai (India), 670 KM East-northeast of Salalah (Oman) and 320 km South-southeast of Masirah (Oman). It is very likely to move southwestward across westcentral Arabian sea during next 3 Days according New Delhi. The closest approach of Socotra is expected Saturday. An other tropical storm named Maha is under surveillance in the Southeast of Arabian sea.
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Update : Kyarr weakened into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm which is the equivalent of a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. It was centered over westcentral and north Arabian Sea and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of 30th October, 2019 near latitude 19.6°N and longitude 62.3°E, about 1100 km westnorthwest of Mumbai (Maharashtra), 930 km east-northeast of Salalah (Oman) and 370 km eastsoutheast of Masirah (Oman) according RSMC New Delhi. Kyarr should gradually change track by turning westward and then southwestward over the next 24 to 36 hours. Landfall over Arabian Peninsula now seems excluded. On this track, the system will move toward Socotra while weakening. It expected to pass near or over the island during this weekend according.
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Update: The system that has demonstrated power by becoming the first Super Cyclone observed in the Arabian Sea since Gonu (2007), begins to weaken. Latest satellite data shows signs of degradation. The eye loses in definition, the top cloud warm up and an intrusion of dry air seems visible on the water vapor data. The trend is now weakening, as confirmed by the SATCON automatic intensity estimate which suggests a decrease. Human agencies (New Delhi CMRS & JTWC) are in good agreement. The northwest track will gradually turn toward westward and finally southwestward. Landfall over the Arabian Peninsula is therefore less and less likely. On this track, the system should move closer to Socotra and the Gulf of Aden over the next few days. However, New Delhi and the Navy are at a loss for future intensity. In the RSMC scenario, Kyarr would weaken so fast that it would be nothing more than a low when approaching Socotra. On the contrary, JTWC suggest a system still sufficiently strong approaching the Yemeni island. The threat level for the regions mentioned above will depend on the intensity of the system beyond the next 48 hours which is currently very uncertain.
Previous Kyarr coverage
Kyarr became Sunday 27th an impressive Super Cyclonic Storm, which corresponds to the top of the intensity scale in the North Indian Ocean. The future of the cyclone is very uncertain.
The system took full advantage of the favorable environmental conditions to become a Super Cyclonic Storm, which represents the top of the intensity scale in the North Indian Ocean. According to the JTWC, the max winds sustained were estimated at 135 kt, which is the equivalent of a violent hurricane at the limit of the category 4/5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Such intensity is rarely observed in the Arabian Sea. The last Super Cyclonic Storm to have evolved in this part of the North Indian Ocean was Gonu during the 2007 cyclone season. This 2019 hurricane season is likely to enter the category of very active. If only 4 storms were nammed (Fani, Vayu, Hikaa and Kyarr), all reach tropical cyclone intensity. The accumulated cyclonic energy of this season should be very high!
Patrick
Cyclone Chaser 2.0, I am passionate about these phenomena and I share my passion on my blog cycloneoi.com
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Kyarr could become a very severe cyclone stormposted in Articles
Cyclonic activity in the Indian Ocean is restarting in the Arabian Sea. As expected, Kyarr became the 4th tropical storm named of the 2019 cyclonic season of the North Indian Ocean. The system that has reached cyclonic storm intensity was named by the RSMC of New Delhi.
Over the next few hours, Kyarr is expected to track West Northwestward. This scenario is proposed by IFS and GFS models which suggests that the system crosses the Arabian Sea from East to West. However, there is a divergence with the Ukmo model that suggested a track rather oriented towards Northwest of India. For human agencies (CMRS New Delhi & JTWC) the scenario of a West-Northwest track is the most plausible, with a gradual rapprochement of the Arabian Peninsula.
Tropical storm Kyarr seems to have the potential to become a very severe cyclonic storm (equivalent of a category 3 Saffir Simpson scale). The environmental conditions appear favorable for a significant intensification. This system will therefore have to be closely monitored over the next few days especially for Oman and Yemen.
Patrick
Cyclone Chaser 2.0, I am passionate about these phenomena and I share my passion on my blog cycloneoi.com
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Cyclonic activity could restart over Indian Oceanposted in Articles
North Indian Ocean is quiet since cyclone Hikaa that evolved in Arabian Sea during September. This pause could end in the next few days. Context is becoming favorable in the Indian Ocean for a resurgence of cyclonic activity. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is in phase 2, which means that an active phase has begun to cross Indian Ocean.
A suspect area numbered 97A over Arabian Sea is under surveillance. The global models suggest a futur cyclogenesis from this suspect area. ASCAT data shows a low level circulation centered in the north-west of Lakshadweep. Environment appear favorable for further development with low to moderate shear, strong divergence and very warm sea surface temperature.
However, 97A should approach the west coast of India. The proximity of land could hinder its development. The future of this low is therefore still uncertain. The situation will be closely monitored for the coastal regions of the Indian states of Karnataka, Maharashtra and Gujarat. It's not exclude that cyclonic storm stage could be reach during the next 48 to 72 hours. The next name on the cyclone list is Kyarr, name proposed by Myanmar.
For information, September/October/November period is usually the second peak of cyclone activity of the year in the North Indian Ocean.
Patrick
Cyclone Chaser 2.0, I am passionate about these phenomena and I share my passion on my blog cycloneoi.com
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Épisode méditérranéen potentiellement agressifposted in Articles
Les modèles de prévision numérique suggéraient depuis plusieurs jours un épisode méditérranéen significatif. L'évolution des dernières heures semble confirmer ces prévisions. Cet épisode se caractérise par des orages violents, une forte activité électrique, des pluies intenses et des violentes rafales. L'événement actuel dont la genèse s'est déroulée dans la région des Baléares, devrait remonter vers le Nord et affecter le Nord-Est de l'Espagne, les Pyrénées ainsi que le Sud de la France.
Le maximum de l'épisode est prévu Mardi et Mercredi. Les modèles simulent des niveaux de précipitation potentiellement très intenses, ce qui rend l'événement à venir dangereux et à suivre de très près. Selon Météo France, les cumuls pluviométriques pourraient atteindre localement entre 200 et 250mm pour l'ensemble de l'épisode. Une vigilance pluie-inondation orange a été émise ce matin à 6h (loc) pour l'Hérault, l'Aude, les Pyrénées orientales et Andorre.
La prudence est donc de mise, surtout que le contexte météorologique régional pourrait aggraver l'épisode à venir d'après Météo-France. En effet, la présence d'un fort vent d'Est en Méditérranée risque de contrarier l'évacuation de l'eau en mer, augmentant le risque d'inondation. Ce même vent pourrait également favoriser la formation de phénomènes tourbillonnaires potentiellement destructeurs dans la nuit de mardi à mercredi. L'évolution de la situation ainsi que l'état des vigilances météorologiques sont à suivre sur le site de Météo-France.
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RE: Your animationsposted in General Discussion
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RE: Your animationsposted in General Discussion
To download this video just click with right mouse button on this link and select "Save link as..."
This video is licenced under Creative Commons licence (CC-BY 3) and can be used/modified freely in any possible way. Just mention Windy.com
Create your own animation at https://www.windy.com/animate