@idefix37 - Sorry if I misread your comment, but when noting that there were thunderstorms in the Chicago area, I thought you were confirming what I was saying. If you backed up the radar, those were the ones that blasted through the Madison, WI area but had no forcast data indicating they were coming through Madison. I believed @Gkikas-LGPZ's to confirm that only afternoon thunderstorms were predicted, implying that there was, in fact, no forcasted event for the morning during which severe thunderstorms and about an hour-long rain event occured.
Point is, most models completely missed the large weather system that came through, and those that did pretty grossly underestimated its scale in terms of deliverable precipitation.