I am finishing a comparative study of meteorological models in wind prediction. I have taken approximately 5000 data points and 300 moment-location pairs.
Here I have put the summarized conclusions, expanded, methodology, and original Excel data (in Spanish, but you know it is easy to translate in the browser).
https://parapente.freesite.online/comparativa-meteorologica/
Methodology:
Wind forecast data were collected from various meteorological models using Windy.com (and meteo-parapente.com) for different geographical points in the Basque Country (Spain). Subsequently, these data were compared with the actual data obtained from official meteorological beacons.
Analyzed meteorological models:
ECMWF 9 km
Meteoblue 4 km
ICON-EU 7 km
AROME-HD 1.3 km
Meteo-Parapente (HREM) 2.5 km
Main conclusions:
Wind direction: The AROME-HD model is the most accurate, with the lowest average deviation in degrees.
Maximum gust: Again, AROME-HD stands out for its accuracy. "The best model is clearly Arome-HD. Moreover, it has the average closest to the actual data, both in deviation above and below." The ECMWF model, on the other hand, shows the greatest deviations.
Average speed: The results are less conclusive. The HREM model from Meteo-parapente shows the greatest deviations in excess, but also the least in deficit. With the dataset on average wind speed, we could conclude that the HREM from Meteo-parapente is the winner, as it has an overall average deviation of -1.37 km/h.
Please note that I am not an expert or a company, and I may have made analysis errors. Any suggestions, criticism, or possible improvements are welcome. I started doing this for myself (paragliding), but it could surely be useful to more people.