While everyone's eyes are now focused on Aletta, which has experiences an unusually fast intensification to a cat 3 hurricane according to nhc, the next tropical storm/hurricane is around the corner. South-East of Aletta a new low pressure zone is forming and a tropical storm will likely arise within 48 hours. The storm is predicted to intensify according to ECMWF to a hurricane on Monday of Tuesday. Lowest pressure reached is 969 hPa with winds up to 180 km/h (112 mph) making it a cat 3 hurricane at its peak. The outer parts of the hurricane might reach Manzanillo, but landfall isn't expected until Friday when it reaches the Baja California Peninsula. Cabo San Lucas will be right in the path of the hurricane. At landfall the hurricane is expected to have a pressure of 986 hPa and winds of at least 140 km/h (87 mph) making it a category 1, possibly cat 2. After the peninsula it is expected to travel Eastwards and make landfall again, this time near Los Mochis and over the Mexican state of Sinaloa. At this second landfall the storm will still have a pressure of 993 hPa and wind speeds up to 120 km/h (75 mph) making second landfall as a cat 1 hurricane on Saturday next week. This is all still a bit far into the future, but it at least shows that Bud will make a higher likelyhood of reaching populated areas than Aletta.

Now GFS shows that this potential hurricane will go towards Texas and remain along the shoreline for at least 3 days with a pressure of 990 hPa with wind speeds of 150 km/h (93 mph). This is even worse than the Louisiana path. But I think the fact that the predictions are constantly changing shows that the situation is still very unpredictable at the moment.

It looks like more and more people are catching on to the fact that a storm could possibly be heading for the US next week. 2 days ago I couldn't find anything on the internet, but now there are multiple videos and articles about weather models predicting a hurricane. Here are a few links:

Uses the 18z model with a simulation made yesterday, which shows even worse conditions for the hurricane. It predicts a central pressure of 963 hPa during landfall with rapid intensification just before landfall. This would be a cat 3 major hurricane landfall in Texas.

CMC now also agrees with GFS on a hurricane forming towards the US next week, which means it isn't only GFS doing weird things right now. WW3 now also shows a storm (not a hurricane) towards Texas. CMC also predicts a central pressure of 964 hPa and landfall as a hurricane (probably cat 2). Another run from a day earlier shows a more Eastern path towards Louisiana and Florida with a central pressure of 958 hPa.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/western-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-on-alert-for-possible-tropical-storm-late-next-week/70005178
Accuweather is now starting to alert people about possible storm formation.

Now that multiple models are predicting a storm it is getting a bit more serious, but still ECMWF disagrees big time so we'll see.

Besides tropical storm Daniel, there are currently 2 disturbances in the pacific. Disturbance 1 has a 70% of formation within 48 hours and 90% within the coming 5 days. Disturbance 2 has a 10% formation within 48 hours, but also 90% formation within the coming 5 days. Let's first look what ECMWF has to say about this:

Disturbance one will result in a tropical storm on Thursday, but this storm won't be very strong and will move to the West. A minimum pressure of 1000 hPa is reached on Friday with wind speeds up to 90 km/h (56 mph). The storm dissipates on Tuesday next week. Disturbance 2 will be a lot more powerful and forms on Thursday/Friday and intensifies into a hurricane on Saturday. Just like disturbance 1 it seems to more to the West with no threat to land. Peak intensity is reached on Tuesday next week with a minimum pressure of 948 hPa and wind speeds up to 235 km/h (146 mph) making it a category 4 hurricane. The hurricane is still present on Thursday next week, the final date of the current predictions, as a category 3.

Now let's see what GFS has to say about these 2 storms:

Disturbance one becomes a tropical storm on Friday and reaches peak intensity on Monday with a minimum pressure of 998 hPa and wind speeds up to 120 km/h (75 mph), just barely making it a category 1 hurricane. The hurricane dissipates on Thursday next week and moves to the West, posing no threat to land. Disturbance 2 becomes a tropical storm on Friday/Saturday, reaching hurricane strength on Sunday. Peak intensity is reached on Thursday next week (it might intensify further, but Thursday is the furthest the predictions go so far). The minimum pressure is 984 hPa and wind speeds are up to 200 km/h (125 mph), making it a high-end category 3 hurricane. The system once again moves to the West, be it less than with the ECMWF run. It also moves a bit to the North so a threat to land, while unlikely, can't be ruled out. Interestingly, GFS has another 3rd hurricane forming on Thursday next week. It forms near the South of Mexico and also moves to the West. At the final point of current predictions it has a minimum pressure of 1000 hPa and wind speeds up to 140 km/h (87 mph), making it a category 1 hurricane.

Beryl has intensified really quickly. Up until recently almost none of the models showed real hurricane formation in that area. And all the forecasts so far have underestimated it and they still are. ECMWF currently has a 1013 hPa area and GFS a 1010 hPA area, but real measurements show that peak pressure is already 995 hPa. Same goes for wind speeds. Let's see if it weakens due to wind shear or if it could really pose a threat to land. There's also another area near North & South Carolina with 80% cyclone formation over the next 5 days.

Hi everyone,

I always see cyclonic storms (hurricane-like) in the oceans near the South Pole when I look at Windy. These low pressure zones are also present sometimes near the North Pole, but they are much rarer there, because there is less ocean there and more land. My question is: are there cyclones actually present or is it just a bug/mistake by the weather models that can't accurate model those areas for some reason? Because if it is real, I wonder why nobody ever talks about it. Is there a service that registers or keeps track of these polar cyclones? According to the ECMWF model on Windy there are currently 5 polar cyclones with clear cyclone eyes. The same low pressure areas can be seen using the GFS model. Here's some current data of these cyclones according to ECMWF:

*Cyclone 1: min. pressure 944 hPa, wind gusts up to 130 km/h
*Cyclone 2: min. pressure 957 hPa, wind gusts up to 100 km/h
*Cyclone 3: min. pressure 944 hPa, wind gusts up to 115 km/h
*Cyclone 4: min. pressure 973 hPa, wind gusts up to 58 km/h
*Cyclone 5: min. pressure 949 hPa, wind gusts up to 120 km/h

Beryl is still out in the Atlantic and has a chance of once again developing into a hurricane according to a few models, but at this moment I also think we really need to look at tropical storm Chris, which could come dangerously close to the US mainland. Let's go over the 3 models ECMWF, GFS & NAM.

First ECMWF. The European model has Chris developing into a hurricane on Tuesday East of South Carolina. Then the hurricane moves up North reaching peak intensity on Thursday as a category 4 hurricane with wind speeds of 210 km/h (131 mph) and a minimum pressure of 964 hPa. In this model the hurricane stays about 120 miles away from the US coastline, but the hurricane could still have affects in North Carolina. Hopefully the hurricane will keep on this North-Eastern track and moves away from the US.

Now GFS. GFS is the model that predicts the weakest case for Chris. However, GFS has already been wrong a lot of times this year, while ECMWF & NAM have been more accurate. Let's look at it anyways. With GFS Chris also becomes a hurricane on Tuesday. The outer bands of Chris might go over the Outer Banks of North Carolina. However, after this the GFS model has Chris going almost completely to the East and to the North after that. Peak intensity is reached on Thursday South of Nova Scotia as a category 2 hurricane with wind speeds up to 161 km/h (100 mph) and a minimum pressure of 994 hPa. The storm could actually reach Nova Scotia as a hurricane on Thursday/Friday as a hurricane, becoming the first hurricane landfall on Nova Scotia since hurricane Arthur in 2014 and the first category 2 landfall on Nova Scotia since Hurricane Juan in 2003.

NAM is by far the scariest prediction and actually one of the scariest predictions for any hurricane I've seen this year so far. Let's hope it doesn't become a reality. NAM has Chris quickly intensifying into a hurricane on Monday, remaining stationary East of South Carolina. Then we see an incredible period of intensification into a category 5 hurricane on Tuesday. This is the furthest we can look at this point with NAM, but it looks like this hurricane is heading North-West, straight for North Carolina. Wind speeds are up to 255 km/h (158 mph) and the minimum pressure is 918 hPa. And the scariest thing is that the hurricane still seems to be intensifying at that point. Let's hope GFS is correct this time, which shows the safest and least powerful hurricane.

Beryl has intensified really quickly. Up until recently almost none of the models showed real hurricane formation in that area. And all the forecasts so far have underestimated it and they still are. ECMWF currently has a 1013 hPa area and GFS a 1010 hPA area, but real measurements show that peak pressure is already 995 hPa. Same goes for wind speeds. Let's see if it weakens due to wind shear or if it could really pose a threat to land. There's also another area near North & South Carolina with 80% cyclone formation over the next 5 days.

All the models (not just ECMWF & GFS) are so far in agreement on the formation of two new tropical storms in the Pacific this week, with the second one being a lot more powerful than the first one.

There also seems to be a possible disturbance near the coast of North Carolina with a 20% chance of formation over the next 5 days. ECMWF shows a tropical storm formation on Wednesday/Thursday. The storm moves to the North-East, posing no threat to land. It has a minimum pressure of 1002 hPa and wind speeds up to 110 km/h (68 mph).

Besides tropical storm Daniel, there are currently 2 disturbances in the pacific. Disturbance 1 has a 70% of formation within 48 hours and 90% within the coming 5 days. Disturbance 2 has a 10% formation within 48 hours, but also 90% formation within the coming 5 days. Let's first look what ECMWF has to say about this:

Disturbance one will result in a tropical storm on Thursday, but this storm won't be very strong and will move to the West. A minimum pressure of 1000 hPa is reached on Friday with wind speeds up to 90 km/h (56 mph). The storm dissipates on Tuesday next week. Disturbance 2 will be a lot more powerful and forms on Thursday/Friday and intensifies into a hurricane on Saturday. Just like disturbance 1 it seems to more to the West with no threat to land. Peak intensity is reached on Tuesday next week with a minimum pressure of 948 hPa and wind speeds up to 235 km/h (146 mph) making it a category 4 hurricane. The hurricane is still present on Thursday next week, the final date of the current predictions, as a category 3.

Now let's see what GFS has to say about these 2 storms:

Disturbance one becomes a tropical storm on Friday and reaches peak intensity on Monday with a minimum pressure of 998 hPa and wind speeds up to 120 km/h (75 mph), just barely making it a category 1 hurricane. The hurricane dissipates on Thursday next week and moves to the West, posing no threat to land. Disturbance 2 becomes a tropical storm on Friday/Saturday, reaching hurricane strength on Sunday. Peak intensity is reached on Thursday next week (it might intensify further, but Thursday is the furthest the predictions go so far). The minimum pressure is 984 hPa and wind speeds are up to 200 km/h (125 mph), making it a high-end category 3 hurricane. The system once again moves to the West, be it less than with the ECMWF run. It also moves a bit to the North so a threat to land, while unlikely, can't be ruled out. Interestingly, GFS has another 3rd hurricane forming on Thursday next week. It forms near the South of Mexico and also moves to the West. At the final point of current predictions it has a minimum pressure of 1000 hPa and wind speeds up to 140 km/h (87 mph), making it a category 1 hurricane.

It looks like more and more people are catching on to the fact that a storm could possibly be heading for the US next week. 2 days ago I couldn't find anything on the internet, but now there are multiple videos and articles about weather models predicting a hurricane. Here are a few links:

Uses the 18z model with a simulation made yesterday, which shows even worse conditions for the hurricane. It predicts a central pressure of 963 hPa during landfall with rapid intensification just before landfall. This would be a cat 3 major hurricane landfall in Texas.

CMC now also agrees with GFS on a hurricane forming towards the US next week, which means it isn't only GFS doing weird things right now. WW3 now also shows a storm (not a hurricane) towards Texas. CMC also predicts a central pressure of 964 hPa and landfall as a hurricane (probably cat 2). Another run from a day earlier shows a more Eastern path towards Louisiana and Florida with a central pressure of 958 hPa.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/western-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-on-alert-for-possible-tropical-storm-late-next-week/70005178
Accuweather is now starting to alert people about possible storm formation.

Now that multiple models are predicting a storm it is getting a bit more serious, but still ECMWF disagrees big time so we'll see.

With Aletta dissipating very soon it's now time to really look at Bud and the possible Atlantic storm. For Bud GFS predicts a central pressure of 989 hPa and wind speeds up to 162 km/h (101 mph) making it a strong cat 2 hurricane. Meanwhile ECMWF predicts a central pressure of 973 hPa and wind speeds up to 182 km/h (113 mph) making it a cat 3 hurricane. Both predict landfall at Cabo San Lucas in Baja California on Thursday and Friday. The strength of the hurricane during landfall is still not really certain. GFS shows dissipation of the hurricane above Baja California, while ECMWF shows that remnants of the hurricane move towards the mainland of Mexico on Saturday bringing wind speeds up to 70 km/h (44 mph).

Now to the possible atlantic storm, which is still a mystery. ECMWF still shows no sign of a hurricane (it does show more low pressure zones and higher wind speeds than before). But GFS clearly still shows a storm/hurricane towards Texas next week. Date of landfall has been delayed a bit to Sunday the 17th. Central pressure of this possible storm, which would be named Beryl, is 999 hPa with wind speeds of more than 100 km/h (62 mph) directly over Houston. The discrepancy between GFS and ECMWF is still very weird.

Also interesting to see is that both GFS and ECMWF show a slight area of low pressure above Colombia on the 19th. With a local sea temperature of 29 degrees Celsius that's definitely enough to create something of a storm, but that's still so far into the future that making predictions isn't that useful.

Now GFS shows that this potential hurricane will go towards Texas and remain along the shoreline for at least 3 days with a pressure of 990 hPa with wind speeds of 150 km/h (93 mph). This is even worse than the Louisiana path. But I think the fact that the predictions are constantly changing shows that the situation is still very unpredictable at the moment.

GFS (first picture) vs. ECMWF (second one)