Best posts made by KevinDehulsters

While everyone's eyes are now focused on Aletta, which has experiences an unusually fast intensification to a cat 3 hurricane according to nhc, the next tropical storm/hurricane is around the corner. South-East of Aletta a new low pressure zone is forming and a tropical storm will likely arise within 48 hours. The storm is predicted to intensify according to ECMWF to a hurricane on Monday of Tuesday. Lowest pressure reached is 969 hPa with winds up to 180 km/h (112 mph) making it a cat 3 hurricane at its peak. The outer parts of the hurricane might reach Manzanillo, but landfall isn't expected until Friday when it reaches the Baja California Peninsula. Cabo San Lucas will be right in the path of the hurricane. At landfall the hurricane is expected to have a pressure of 986 hPa and winds of at least 140 km/h (87 mph) making it a category 1, possibly cat 2. After the peninsula it is expected to travel Eastwards and make landfall again, this time near Los Mochis and over the Mexican state of Sinaloa. At this second landfall the storm will still have a pressure of 993 hPa and wind speeds up to 120 km/h (75 mph) making second landfall as a cat 1 hurricane on Saturday next week. This is all still a bit far into the future, but it at least shows that Bud will make a higher likelyhood of reaching populated areas than Aletta.

Now GFS shows that this potential hurricane will go towards Texas and remain along the shoreline for at least 3 days with a pressure of 990 hPa with wind speeds of 150 km/h (93 mph). This is even worse than the Louisiana path. But I think the fact that the predictions are constantly changing shows that the situation is still very unpredictable at the moment.

It looks like more and more people are catching on to the fact that a storm could possibly be heading for the US next week. 2 days ago I couldn't find anything on the internet, but now there are multiple videos and articles about weather models predicting a hurricane. Here are a few links:

Uses the 18z model with a simulation made yesterday, which shows even worse conditions for the hurricane. It predicts a central pressure of 963 hPa during landfall with rapid intensification just before landfall. This would be a cat 3 major hurricane landfall in Texas.

CMC now also agrees with GFS on a hurricane forming towards the US next week, which means it isn't only GFS doing weird things right now. WW3 now also shows a storm (not a hurricane) towards Texas. CMC also predicts a central pressure of 964 hPa and landfall as a hurricane (probably cat 2). Another run from a day earlier shows a more Eastern path towards Louisiana and Florida with a central pressure of 958 hPa.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/western-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-on-alert-for-possible-tropical-storm-late-next-week/70005178
Accuweather is now starting to alert people about possible storm formation.

Now that multiple models are predicting a storm it is getting a bit more serious, but still ECMWF disagrees big time so we'll see.

Besides tropical storm Daniel, there are currently 2 disturbances in the pacific. Disturbance 1 has a 70% of formation within 48 hours and 90% within the coming 5 days. Disturbance 2 has a 10% formation within 48 hours, but also 90% formation within the coming 5 days. Let's first look what ECMWF has to say about this:

Disturbance one will result in a tropical storm on Thursday, but this storm won't be very strong and will move to the West. A minimum pressure of 1000 hPa is reached on Friday with wind speeds up to 90 km/h (56 mph). The storm dissipates on Tuesday next week. Disturbance 2 will be a lot more powerful and forms on Thursday/Friday and intensifies into a hurricane on Saturday. Just like disturbance 1 it seems to more to the West with no threat to land. Peak intensity is reached on Tuesday next week with a minimum pressure of 948 hPa and wind speeds up to 235 km/h (146 mph) making it a category 4 hurricane. The hurricane is still present on Thursday next week, the final date of the current predictions, as a category 3.

Now let's see what GFS has to say about these 2 storms:

Disturbance one becomes a tropical storm on Friday and reaches peak intensity on Monday with a minimum pressure of 998 hPa and wind speeds up to 120 km/h (75 mph), just barely making it a category 1 hurricane. The hurricane dissipates on Thursday next week and moves to the West, posing no threat to land. Disturbance 2 becomes a tropical storm on Friday/Saturday, reaching hurricane strength on Sunday. Peak intensity is reached on Thursday next week (it might intensify further, but Thursday is the furthest the predictions go so far). The minimum pressure is 984 hPa and wind speeds are up to 200 km/h (125 mph), making it a high-end category 3 hurricane. The system once again moves to the West, be it less than with the ECMWF run. It also moves a bit to the North so a threat to land, while unlikely, can't be ruled out. Interestingly, GFS has another 3rd hurricane forming on Thursday next week. It forms near the South of Mexico and also moves to the West. At the final point of current predictions it has a minimum pressure of 1000 hPa and wind speeds up to 140 km/h (87 mph), making it a category 1 hurricane.

Beryl has intensified really quickly. Up until recently almost none of the models showed real hurricane formation in that area. And all the forecasts so far have underestimated it and they still are. ECMWF currently has a 1013 hPa area and GFS a 1010 hPA area, but real measurements show that peak pressure is already 995 hPa. Same goes for wind speeds. Let's see if it weakens due to wind shear or if it could really pose a threat to land. There's also another area near North & South Carolina with 80% cyclone formation over the next 5 days.