@Wheats Sorry - I'm not really in a position to "help". I submitted this because it seemed prima facie ridiculous - at least 2.5X the highest EDR value I've ever seen, and inconsistent with the other models. I'm flying there tomorrow (similar forecast) so wondered if it could be credible, or if anyone had a useful insight. Since that's probably strong enough to tear the wings off a jetliner, I guess I'll see PIREPs in time to cancel.