• Update: At 6:15 p.m. AST (10:15 p.m. UTC), Post-Tropical Dorian has made landfall near Sambro Creek in Nova Scotia, Canada, or about 15 miles (25 km) south of Halifax. The estimated maximum sustained winds at landfall were 100 mph (155 km/h) & the estimated central pressure was 958 mb (28.29 inches). Check out the latest Advisory at nhc.noaa.gov
• Update: NHC's cones and tracks for Dorian (Adv. 59) and Gabrielle (Adv. 18) have been uploaded to Windy..
• Update: Dorian becomes a Hurricane-Force Post-Tropical Cyclone. Center is now near the southern coast of Nova Scotia. At 5:00 p.m. AST (9.00 p.m. UTC), the center of Dorian was near 43.9N, 63.9W, moving toward the northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. After that, a turn toward the east-northeast is expected. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should cross the coast of Nova Scotia near Halifax during the next few hours, then move across eastern Nova Scotia into the Gulf of St. Lawrence near Prince Edward Island tonight. The center should then pass near or over northern Newfoundland and eastern Labrador late tonight or Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to weaken during the next couple of days, and it is forecast to drop below hurricane strength by Sunday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the south of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). Osbourne Head, Nova Scotia, recently reported sustained winds of 68 mph (109 km/h) and a wind gust of 88 mph (142 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches). (Advisory 59, nhc.noaa.gov)
• Update: We've uploaded the Hurricane Dorian cone/track (Adv. 58) to Windy, including Tropical Storm Gabrielle (Adv. 17).
• Update: At 2:00 p.m. AST (6:00 p.m. UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near 42.8N, 64.9 W. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and a general motion toward the northeast is expected to continue through Sunday night. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. While Dorian is forecast to weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours, it is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds as it moves across eastern Canada this afternoon through Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the south of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). NOAA buoy 44011 to the southwest of the center recently reported sustained winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a [wind gust](link url) of 94 mph (151 km/h). A station at Baccarro Point, Nova Scotia, recently reported sustained winds of 58 mph (93 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches). (Adv. 58, nhc.noaa.gov)
• Update: We've uploaded the Hurricane Dorian Advisory 55 cone/track to Windy, including Tropical Storm Gabrielle (Adv. 14).
• Update: The Canadian Hurricane Center has adjusted the warnings for Nova Scotia and New Brunswick and a hurricane warning is now in effect from Lower East Pubnico eastward around Nova Scotia to Avonport, and the tropical storm warning is effect from Tidnish to Brule and from Fundy National Park to Shediac. At 11:00 p.m. EDT (3:00 a.m. UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near 38.3N, 70.2W, moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). Max. sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h), the estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). (Advisory 55, nhc.noaa.gov)
• Update: We've uploaded the latest cone/track forecast from NHC's Intermediate Advisory #54A to Windy. Click here to view it on any Windy forecast (or satellite/radar) layer. The text of the latest public advisory is available at nhc.noaa.gov
• Update: At 5:00 p.m. EDT (9:00 p.m. UTC), Category 1 Hurricane Dorian was near 36.9N, 72.7W, moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h). Dorian should move move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England tonight and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday or Saturday night. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds Saturday night or Sunday while it is near or over eastern Canada. Tropical storm conditions will persist for a few more hours in the warning area over the Mid-Atlantic states. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early Saturday, and in the warning area in Maine Saturday afternoon. Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area Saturday or Saturday night, and they are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Canada by Saturday, and they are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Saturday and Saturday night. The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Newfoundland from Boat Harbour to Triton. All Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are discontinued south of the North Carolina/Virginia Border. The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued for the Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued north of the North Carolina/Virginia border. (Advisory 54, nhc.noaa.gov)
• Update: We've uploade the latest cone & track forecasts for Hurricane Dorian (Adv. 53) and Tropical Storm Gabrielle (Adv. 12)
• Update: At 11:00 a.m. EDT (3:00 p.m. UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was near 35.7N, 74.8W.
  Hurricane conditions should end along portions of the North Carolina coast during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions should continue on the southeastern coast of Virginia for the next several hours, and are expected to spread across other portions of the the Mid-Atlantic states later today. Tropical storm conditions are also expected in the warning area over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early Saturday, and in the warning area in Maine Saturday afternoon (Advisory 53, nhc.noaa.gov)
• Update: We've uploaded the latest NHC's cone and track forecast for Hurricane Dorian (Adv. 51)
• Update: We've uploaded the latest NHC's cone and track forecast for Hurricane Dorian (Adv. 50) and TS Gabrielle (Adv. 9)
• Update: At 5:00 p.m. EDT (9:00 p.m. UTC), the eye of [Hurricane Dorian](link url) was near 33.1N, 78.5W, max. sustained winds are now near 105 mph (165 km/h). The Tropical Storm Watch from Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, and for Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Hurricane Warning from Savannah River to south of Edisto Beach, South Carolina has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Little River Inlet. Summary of warnings in effect: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Little River Inlet to Poquoson VA, Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers, and Hampton Roads. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Edisto Beach SC to the North Carolina/Virginia border, and Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Savannah River to south of Edisto Beach SC, North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE, Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward, Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island, Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA, and Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA (Advisory 50, nhc.noaa.gov)
• Update: We've uploaded the latest NHC's cones and track forecasts to Windy (Adv. 49)
• Update: At 11:00 a.m. EDT (3:00 p.m. UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was near 32.5N, 79.1W. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
  The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Fenwick Island, Delaware, and also extended northward in the Chesapeake Bay to Drum Point, including the Tidal Potomac River south of Cobb Island. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Edisto Beach, South Carolina. (Advisory 49, nhc.noaa.gov)
• Update: We've uploaded the latest cone and track forecast for Hurricane Dorian (Adv. 48A) and Tropical Storm Gabrielle (Adv. 7).
• Update: Update At 8:00 a.m. EDT (12:00 p.m. UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian, strengthened to category 3 hurricane, was near 32.1N, 79.3W, with max. sustained winds near 115 mph (185 km/h). Dorian is now moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is anticipated by tonight, and a northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue to move close to the coast of South Carolina today, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later on Saturday. (Advisory 48A, nhc.noaa.gov)
• Update: Tropical storm conditions occuring along portions of the South Carolina coast. A Weatherflow station at Winyah Bay, South Carolina recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h). (Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update 7:00 a.m. EDT / 11:00 a.m. UTC, NHC Miami Florida)
• Update: At 8:00 p.m. EDT (12:00 a.m. UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near 30.9N, 79.8W, max. sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter is 959 mb (28.31 inches). (Advisory 46A, nhc.noaa.gov)
• Update: We've uploaded cone and track forecast for Hurricane Dorian (Adv #46), Tropical Storm Gabrielle (Adv. #7), Tropical Depression Fernand (Adv. #7), Hurricane Juliette (Adv. #17), Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil (Adv. #7)
• Update: At 8:00 a.m. EDT (12:00 p.m. UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian, strengthened to category 3 hurricane, was near 32.1N, 79.3W, with max. sustained winds near 115 mph (185 km/h). Dorian is now moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is anticipated by tonight, and a northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue to move close to the coast of South Carolina today, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later on Saturday. (Advisory 48A, nhc.noaa.gov)
• Update: Tropical storm conditions occuring along portions of the South Carolina coast. A Weatherflow station at Winyah Bay, South Carolina recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h). (Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update 7:00 a.m. EDT (11:00 a.m. UTC), NHC Miami Florida)
• Update: At 8:00 p.m. EDT (12:00 a.m. UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near 30.9N, 79.8W, max. sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter is 959 mb (28.31 inches). (Advisory 46A, nhc.noaa.gov)
• Update: We've uploaded cone and track forecast for Hurricane Dorian (Adv #46), Tropical Storm Gabrielle (Adv. #5), Tropical Depression Fernand (Adv. #7)
• Update: At 5:00 p.m. EDT (9:00 p.m. UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near 30.6N, 79.8W, with max. sustained winds increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h), moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the north-northeast on Thursday and a turn toward the northeast on Thursday night. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will approach the coast of South Carolina tonight, move near or over the coast of South Carolina on Thursday, and move near or over the coast of North Carolina Thursday night and Friday. The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to Poquoson, Virginia, including Hampton Roads. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Chincoteague, Virginia, to Fenwick Island, Delaware, for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point, and for the Tidal Potomac River south of Cobb Island. The Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning have been discontinued south of the Flagler/Volusia County line. (Advisory 46, nhc.noaa.gov)
• Update: We've uploaded (NHC's Adv. #44 cone and track forecast, now Including Tropical Storm Fernand and Tropical Storm Gabrielle
• Update At 5:00 a.m. EDT (9:00 a.m. UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near 29.2N, 79.5 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 963 mb (28.44 inches). The government of the Bahamas has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings for the Bahamas. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Sebastian Inlet, FL has been discontinued. The Hurricane Warning from Sebastian Inlet FL to the Volusia/Brevard County FL line is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.
• Update We've uploaded (NHC's Adv. #42 cone and track forecast
• Update At 5:00 p.m. EDT (9:00 p.m. UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near 27.7N, 78.7W, with
• Update At 11:00 a.m. EDT (3:00 p.m. UTC). Dorian, weakened to category 3 hurricane, was near 27.1N, 78.6W, max. sustained winds near 110 mph (175 km/h), min. central pressure 955 mb (28.20 inches). Check out the latest cone and track forecast.
  
  The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to South Santee River, South Carolina. The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward to Cape Lookout, North Carolina. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the coast of South Carolina from north of Edisto Beach to the South Santee River. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from north of South Santee River to Duck, North Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended north to Edisto Beach, South Carolina. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Jupiter Inlet, Florida. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued south of Lantana, Florida has been discontinued. The Hurricane Watch from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch from Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach has been discontinued. (Adv. 41 by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL - nhc.noaa.gov)
• Update At 11:00 p.m. EDT (3:00 a.m. UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near 26.9N, 78.5W. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters was 946 mb (27.94 inches). View the latest cone and track on any Windy layer.
• Update At 8:00 p.m. EDT (12:00 a.m. UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was near 26.8N, 78.4W. Category 4 Hurricane Dorian remains nearly stationary just north of Grand Bahama Island - Intermediate Advisory Number 38A (nhc.noaa.gov) Click to check out the Advisory Number 38A cone & track on any Windy layer
• Update We've uploaded the NHC's cone & track from Advisory #38 to Windy.
• Update The eye of dangerous hi-end category 4 Hurricane Dorian around 10 p.m. UTC
• Update Devastating conditions caused by Category 4 Hurricane Dorian continue on Grand Bahama Island. At 5:00 p.m. EDT (9:00 p.m. UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near 26.8N, 78.4W. Dorian has become nearly stationary this afternoon. A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to resume overnight and continue into early Tuesday. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by late Tuesday, with a northeastward motion forecast to begin by Wednesday night. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island into Tuesday morning.
  
  Dorian will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Tuesday through Wednesday evening and then move dangerously close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Wednesday night and Thursday.
  
  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found that max. sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts.
  
  Sustained winds of 55 mph (89 km/h) with a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) was recently reported at a NOAA Coastal Marine observing site at Settlement Point on the west end of Grand Bahama Island. A wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h) was reported at Opa Locka Airport near Miami earlier this afternoon. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 940 mb (27.76 inches).
  
  A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Lantana to Altamaha Sound. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana and Altamaha Sound to South Santee River. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas and Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet and North of Ponte Vedra Beach to South Santee River. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach and Lake Okeechobee (Adv. 38 by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL - nhc.noaa.gov)
• Update At 11:30 a.m. UTC, Hurricane Dorian was approx. at 26.48N, 78.17W. With max. sustained winds of 155 mph, Dorian weakened to hi-end Category 4 Hurricane.
• Update Category 5 Dorian continues to have devastating impacts on Grand Bahama Island. Uploaded the latest cone & track forecast from the NHC's Advisory 36. Check it out on any Windy forecast layer. Current Summary: Location: 26.6N 78.2W (about 40 miles (60 km) E of Freeport Grand Bahama island, 115 miles (190 km) E of West Palm Beach Florida), max sustained winds: 165 mph (270 km/h), min. central pressure: 916 Mb (27.05 inches)
• Update Uploaded the latest cone & track forecast from the NHC's Advisory 35. Check it out on any Windy forecast layer.
• Update Catastrophic Category 5 Dorian makes landfall on the eastern end of Grand Bahama island. Maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h). A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana and Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island and Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Andros Island, North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet and Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach and Lake Okeechobee (Advisory #35, 11:00 p.m. EDT/ 3:00 a.m. UTC by nhc.noaa.gov)
  

• Update Catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane Dorian is pounding Great Abaco and Grand Bamaha. Hurricane conditions are expected in Florida by late Monday/Tuesday. At 8:00 p.m. EDT (0:00 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near 26.6N, 77.6W, moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). Maximum sustained winds remain near 185 mph (295 km/h) - NHC's Advisory 34A
  

• Update Added the latest NHC's cone & track (Adv. #34).
• Update The distinct eye of powerful Hurricane Dorian is moving over Great Abaco. The latest wind and pressure data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane just before the eye hit the island indicated that the winds reached exceptional 160 kt. The minimum pressure measured by the plane was 910 mb. The eye has been shrinking, and an eyewall replacement cycle is possibly occurring. The effect of the island terrain and the eyewall replacement cycle should result in some slight fluctuations in intensity during the next 24 to 36 hours, but the hurricane will continue to be extremely dangerous one during that time. After 3 days, a more definite weakening trend should begin. Dorian however, it is forecast to remain a hurricane for the next 5 days. Dorian is expected to slow down a little more, prolonging its catastrophic effects in the northwestern Bahamas. The NHC forecast calls for a slow west to west-northwest motion during the next 48 hours. Both the deterministic and consensus tracks have shown the usual variability to the right or to the left from run to run, but the overall trend is for the hurricane to turn northward offshore but dangerously close to the Florida peninsula. Given the uncertainty in the track forecast and the anticipated increase in size of the hurricane, a Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Warning have been issued for a portion of the Florida east coast. It is once again emphasized that although the official track forecast does not show landfall, users should not focus on the exact track. A small deviation to the left of the track could bring the intense core of the hurricane its dangerous winds closer to or onto the Florida coast. (Advisory #34 by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL)
• Update The extremely distinct eye of catastrophic Hurricane Dorian is now over Abacos Islands in The Bahamas heading with all its fury toward Grand Bamaha. At 2:00 p.m. EDT (6:00 p.m. UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near 26.5N, 77.1W. Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts.(Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory 33A)
  

• Update Uploaded the latest cone & track forecast from the NHC's Advisory 33. Check it out on any Windy weather/climate layer.
• Update At 11:00 a.m. EDT (3:00 p.m. UTC) Dorian was located near 26.5N, 76.8W, about 205 miles (330 km) E of W Palm Beach, Florida, max. sustained winds 180 mph (285 km/h). A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Andros Island and North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach and Lake Okeechobee.
• Update Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update 9:30 a.m. EDT (1:30 p.m. UTC) - Cat 5 Hurricane Dorian now has maximum sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h), with a minimum central pressure of 922 mb (27.23 inches). The eyewall of catastrophic Hurricane Dorian is currently reaching the Abaco Islands. This is a life-threatening situation. Residents there should take immediate shelter. Do not venture into the eye if it passes over your location. Hazards: Wind Gusts over 200 mph; Storm Surge 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves. These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas and will continue for several hours.
• Update We've uploaded the NHC's Hurricane-Force Wind Probablilities forecast KMZ file to Windy. Also check out the Adv. 32A cone & track. (see the NHC's original graphics below)
• Update Dorian is now a category 5 hurricane. Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. At 8:00 a.m. EDT (12:00 p.m. UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near 26.5N, 76.5W, moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). On its track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian should be moving over Great Abaco soon, and continue near or over Grand Bahama Island later tonight and Monday. The hurricane should move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday night. Check out the NHC's latest cone & track forecast (Adv. 32A) over any Windy layer. Check out the NHC's Dorian Hurricane-Force Wind Speed Probabilities forecast (Adv. 32A)** over any Windy layer
• Update 31 August 2019 - Severe hurricane Dorian, maintaining its hi-end category 4 hurricane status, is forecast to hit portions of the northwestern Bahamas hard on Sunday. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Andros Island. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet. At 5:00 p.m. EDT (9:00 p.m. UTC), Dorian was near 26.2N, 74.4W, moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slower westward motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). (click to view the Adv. #30 cone on any Windy layer)
• Update At 2:00 p.m. EDT (6:00 p.m. UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 73.9 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward motion should continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and move near the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h)
• Update Check out the Hurricane Dorian Advisory #29 cone and track by the NHC over any Windy layer here.
• Update At 3:00 p.m. UTC, Category 4 hurricane Dorian was located near 26.0N, 73.24W. Data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Andros Island.
• Update Dorian strengthened to major category 4 hurricane, with max. sustained winds near 140 mph (220 km/h). Some strengthening is possible today. Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next week, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. At 2:00 a.m. EDT (6:00 a.m. UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near 25.6N, 72.0W. On its track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday. (Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 27A)
• Update Check out the NHC's Earliest-Reasonable Time of Arrival (Adv. #26) on any Windy layer
• Update Article was updated with Copernicus Sentinel3’s imagery (see below)
• Update Extremely dangerous hurricane Dorian, stenghtened to Category 3, is heading to northwestern Bahamas. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island, a Hurricane Watch is in effect for Andros Island. At 5:00 p.m. EDT (9:00 p.m. UTC), the well-defined eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near 25.0N, 70.7W. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and tomorrow, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday. Maximum sustained winds were near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts (Hurricane Dorian Advisory #26 by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL).
• Update Click to view the 64kt wind speed probabilities forecast (Advisory #25) over the last 12 hrs satellite loop (or any Windy forecast layer)
• Update At 11:00 a.m. AST (3:00 a.m. UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near 24.5N, 69.8W. A slower west-northwestward to westward motion should begin tonight and continue into early next week. Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas today and tomorrow, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida peninsula late Monday. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Northwestern Bahamas.
• Update Hurricane Hunters find Dorian a little stronger. Check out the NHC's hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory 24A cone and track (click here).
• Update: At 5:00 p.m. AST (9:00 p.m. UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near 22.5N, 67.7W, with maximum sustained winds near 85 mph (140 km/h). Check out the latest cone and track by NHC (Public Adv. 22)
• Update: Hurricane Dorian continues to gain intensity. The National Hurricane Center forecasts it will become a major hurricane (Category 3 or 4) by Friday. At 11:00 a.m. AST (3:00 p.m. UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near 21.4N, 67.2W, with maximum sustained winds near 85 mph (140 km/h). A west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by Friday night and continue into the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today and on Friday, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday. Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday, and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through the weekend.
• Update: On August 28th 11:00 p.m. AST (3:00 a.m. UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near 19.7N, 66.0W. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. Click here to get the latest NHC's cone & track (Adv. 19) displayed on any Windy forecast layer.
• Update: Check out the earliest reasonable arrival time of tropical storm force winds from Adv.18 by NOAA/NHC over last 12 hours satellite loop (you can switch to any forecast layer too). Click here.
• Update: At 5:00 p.m. AST (9:00 p.m. UTC), the apparent eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near 18.8N, 65.5W. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). On this track, Dorian should continue to move near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands during the next several hours and then move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is forecast to strengthen and become a powerful hurricane during the next few days over the Atlantic waters.
• Update: Dorian strengthened to Category 1 hurricane earlier this afternoon

31 August 2019

30 August 2019

• Click here to view the 64kt wind speed probabilities forecast (Advisory #25) over the last 12 hrs satellite loop (or any Windy forecast layer)

29 August 2019

We just released the first special weather balloon in support of #HurricaneDorian. Our office is one of 18 across the Southern US doing these special, 6-hourly, releases. Data acquired from these flights will help improve the forecast for #Dorian. —NWS Brownsville

28 August 2019

Full day 1 min res. GOES-16 loop

• Track the path of Hurricane Dorian with Windy Hurricane Tracker

Tropical Storm Dorian is forecast to develop into a Category 2 hurricane after making landfall in Puerto Rico.

• Track the path of Dorian with Windy Hurricane Tracker

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects the tropical storm conditions in Puerto Rico, with the possibility of hurricane conditions, but over the weekend the storm may strengthen to a Category 2 hurricane as it moves toward the east coast of Florida.

After hitting Puerto Rico, which is still recovering from Hurricane Maria in 2017, Dorian is forecast to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane by Friday morning.

Dorian si forecast to strengthen again throgh Sunday morning, before arriving at Florida's coast and making landfall as a Category 2 hurricane late Sunday or Monday along the east coast of Florida.

The NHC has issued hurricane watch and tropical storm warnings for Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

A Hurricane Warning

• Vieques and Culebra
• U.S. Virgin Islands
• British Virgin Islands

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning

• Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Watch

• Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

The governor of Puerto Rico has declared a state of emergency for US territory on Monday.

Based on the current track of Tropical Storm Dorian, all residents on the East Coast should prepare for impacts, including strong winds, heavy rain and flooding. Make sure to have your supplies ready and follow @FLSERT (Florida Division of Emergency Management) and local media for the latest updates on the forecast. —Ron DeSantis, governor of Puerto Rico

Yesterday, the US president has approved an emergency declaration.

• Track the path of Dorian with Windy Hurricane Tracker: http://bit.ly/dorian_tracker

https://www.windy.com/upload/5d7424970ba7fc001941fe63?satellite,29.037,-80.859,4,internal

If you’re wondering what the Windy’s CAPE index forecast layer is good for, a meteorology and medicine nerd Luke gives you an answer in a thread on Twitter.

Convective Available Potential Energy is a measure of the energy that can be created if there is enough heat in a cloud to give convection.

The values are given in Joules per Kilogram of air as a general rule.

The greater the energy that is released during convection, the greater will be the charge separation and the more lightning is liable to occur.

CAPE index of lightning risk

• < 1000 -Slight
• 1000 - 2500 - Moderate
• 2500 - 3500 - Very
• > 3500 - Extremely

CAPE is usually used by people at sea. Sailing without checking CAPE can be dangerous. It's a great way of predicting how much lightning an area will get and Windy have a fantastic CAPE setting so check it out.

(Thanks to MailASail for some info)

Please keep in mind that CAPE index, as a measure of instability, is only one of the factors to consider when you forecast the thunderstorms. @Gkikas-LGPZ sums it up nicely.

However, instablility on it's own is not enough to ensure thunderstorms. There needs to be a lifting factor due to orography or frontal activity. Check for other hints such as high humidity and a forecast of showers in the area.

Example: the following images show forecast for same time (25 July 2019 / 00 UTC). Although high CAPE values in the Balearic islands (West Mediterranean Sea), no thunderstorms expected.

CAPE definition

In meteorology, convective available potential energy (CAPE), sometimes, simply, available potential energy (APE), represents potential energy of atmosphere and can be indicator of forming convective clouds and storms.

CAPE is effectively the positive buoyancy of an air parcel (mass of air) and is an indicator of atmospheric instability, which makes it very valuable in predicting severe weather.

Values from 1000 to 2000 can indicate forming of moderate thunderstorms, and over 2000 severe ones.

CAPE for a given region is most often calculated from a thermodynamic or sounding diagram (known as a Skew-T log-P diagram) using air temperature and dew point data usually measured by a weather balloon.

Sounding diagram is also available on Windy, just right click the place and choose Sounding forecast from the contextual menu.

If you prefer Skew-T style sounding diagram, there’s an amazing plugin by John Kealy (project on Github).

OK, here we go. Our first ever 100% bragging post here on Windy. It doesn't happen every day that you stumble upon an Instagram post by Leonardo DiCaprio featuring Windy.com.

The famous Hollywood actor posted our CO concentration map, depicting the impact of ongoing Amazon wildfires.

The fact it’s just a regram of the @rainforestalliance' post doesn’t make us any less excited. Right now, his post earned over 2.5 million likes (check out the actual count on Instagram). Also check out the pictured CO concentration map including forecast here.

Anyway, we don't know whether DiCaprio himself uses Windy or not.

https://www.windy.com/annotation/5d5fdf17c13ecf0012aedbf5

After a record-breaking heatwave in Arctic, wildfires spread across the areas of Greenland, Siberia, and Alaska at unprecedented levels, surpassing last month's 50 megatonnes CO2 emissions record.

I think it's fair to say July Arctic Circle wildfires are now at unprecedented levels having surpassed previous highest Copernicus GFAS estimated July total CO2 emission (2004/2005), & last month's 50 megatonnes, and still increasing. —Mark Parrington, senior scientist at ECMWF

To see the 50 Mt in context, it is the equivalent to 2017 full year’s worth of national fossil fuel CO2 emissions for Bulgaria, Hungary and Sweden.

Approximately 100 Mt CO2 emitted by Arctic wildfires between 1 June & 21 July 2019 is getting close to 2017 fossil fuel CO2 emissions of Belgium. Those are huge numbers and it's no brainer that wilfires’ smoke is a significant source of CO2 emissions.

Heavy smoke circulation

You can see a predicted circulation of heavy smoke directly in the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring System (CAMS) layer on Windy (Aerosol layer).

Or watch the short video depicting predicted circulation of heavy smoke, from many Krasnoyarsk Krai and Central Russia wildfires, around giant low over next 2 days (satellite imagery below).

To imagine how big the wildfires are in Russia, Alex Kokcharov, who is a Country risk analyst focused on Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Eurasia and Caucasus, gives you a nice example.

In Krasnoyarsk and Irkutsk regions, Siberia, eastern Russia, some 900,000 hectare (or equivalent to entire land area of Cyprus or Lebanon) is affected by forest fires.

Wildfires satellite imagery

Pierre Markuse has amazing Flickr gallery of satellite images on the subject. Below are just few examples of how hard were Russia and Alaska hit by the wildfires.

Wildfires in Krasnoyarsk Krai and Sakha Republic

21 July 2019

Several wildfires and smoke plumes between about 57°N and 70°N in Krasnoyarsk Krai and Sakha Republic, Russia. Aqua and Terra MODIS data through NASA Worldview.


Download this image in the original 4128 x 5040 px resolution here

Wildfires east of Batagay, Verkhoyansky District

16 July 2019

About 67.8°N, east of Batagay, Verkhoyansky District, Sakha Republic, Russia

Download this image in the original 9930 x 5040 px resolution here.

Download this image in the original 9930 x 5040 px resolution here.

Wildfires near Lena River

16 July 2019

About 66°N just south of the Arctic Circle near the Lena River, Sakha Republic, Russia

Download this image in the original 1799 x 1926 px resolution here.

Wildfires in Alaska

16 July 2019

Wildfires at about 67°N, Alaska, USA

Download this image in the original 4128 x 5040 px resolution here

Wildfire activity in the Arctic Circle in June 2019

Unprecedented wildfire activity in the Arctic Circle in June 2019, with notable widespread fires in Sakha Republic, Russia for much of the last 3 weeks, as estimated with CAMS Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) data based on MODIS.

Related links

• The next BIG THING
• Video of the week: Scientist captures sled dogs walking on Greenland's melting ice sheet
• Why it doesn't matter what the climate-models tell us about the global warming
• Extreme heatwave in Alaska: Anchorage hits highest temperature on record
• Fossil CO2 emissions of all world countries, 2018 report

• Update: Don't miss our day-by-day recap of the journey. Click here

Swedish teenage climate change activist Greta Thunberg will spend two weeks travelling across the North Atlantic, to send a signal that "the climate change crisis is a real thing". Her goal is to attend a crucial climate change conference in New York.

Climate change is still a controversial topic and that’s exactly why we need people like Greta - to spread the debate further.

Scientists and weather nerds already pretty much agree on consensus climate change is not just real, but it seems we people are responsible and we should take much “greener” stance, starting with decarbonization ASAP (don’t miss this this huge post about decarbonization Ivo wrote couple of weeks ago).

Even if you don’t believe that CO2 pollution is the main cause and you think the proof is not scientific, you should take a “greener” stance, given what we know about complex system (climate is complex system).

Back to Greta and her journey. Before I get to the details, let me tell you, how surprised I was, when I found out Greta gets a quite a lot of criticism too - I’d rather say hate.

The hate goes from basic climate change deniers stuff, up to the accusations of child abuse with some hidden agenda, that kind of stuff. And—despite depressing comments you can see below—that’s a good thing. To make something that stands out, you get not only supporters, you get a lot of hate too. I take it as a sign Greta is doing great job.

Malizia II, the boat she’s travelling across the North Atlantic on, is a boat with no toilets, kitchens or privacy. The electricity on the boat will solely come from water turbines, or in the sailing world known as hydro generators, and solar panels, meaning the journey has a zero carbon footprint.

Professional sailor Boris Herrmann (38), who lives in Germany and is preparing for 2020 Vendée Globe (as the only German racer), is on board. Other crew members are her dad Svante, Pierre Casiraghi (co-skipper and founder of team malizia) and Nathan Grossman (close friend of Thunbergs and film maker).

We consider ourselves members of the supporters camp, and that’s why we decided to give Greta some coverage. Our friends from Follow My Challenge built a Windy plugin tracking Greta's journey, that makes it possible follow her path in realtime. You can view the tracker at https://www.windy.com/greta-thunberg

Recap & few more interesting facts:

• The journey from UK to NY, where UN Climate Action Summit 2019 will take place, takes about 10-14 days, depending on the weather and waves
• Approx 3,000 miles long journey begun on August 14th 2019 at 3 p.m. local time
• The 60 feet long and 20 feed wide ship is called Malizia II. Malizia means "the wily"
• She has not mentioned how he will return back to Europe

Departure in Plymouth

• Watch more videos from the departure here

Related content

• Windy founder's message to Greta
• Watch Greta Thunberg leaving Plymouth

https://www.windy.com/annotation/5d52dd2d1cec4500191ba6fc

• Update: Weakening Mitag makes landfall in South Korea. At 12:00 p.m. UTC, Tropical Storm Mitag was located near 34.4N 126.3E, with max. sustained winds of 40 knots, with higher gusts of 50 kt. Here's the latest cone & track forecast (JTWC Warning #22).
• Update: We've uploaded the latest MItag cone and track forecast (JTWC warning #19) to Windy. Click here to view it on any Windy layer.
• Update: Mitag, weakened to a Tropical Storm (what does it mean? Find out in this article: Four stages of Tropical Cyclone), continues to weaken gradually as it begins to curve northeast, headed toward landfall overnight Wednesday on Korea's southwest coast and forecast to cut across the south-central part of the peninsula . At 6:00 p.m. UTC, Tropical Storm Mitag was located near 30.7N 122.7E, with max. sustained winds of 55 knots, with higher gusts of 70 kt.
• Update: We've uploaded the latest JTWC's Typhoon Mitag cone to Windy (warning #18). Click here to view it on any Windy layer.
• Update: Mitag is weakening off the coast of eastern China, expected to impact the Korean peninsula and Area IV starting tomorrow. At 12:00 p.m. UTC, Tropical Storm Mitag was located near 30.0N, 122.5E, with max. sustained winds of 60 knots (110 km/h). According to the U.S. Army Garrison Daegu facebook post, Typhoon Mitag is expected to impact the Korean peninsula and Area IV starting tomorrow, Oct. 2, at 2 p.m. lasting until Thursday late evening, Oct. 3. Winds are expected to reach 50-60 nautical miles per hour (knots) along the southern coastline of Korea and the southern most portions of Area IV with 3 to 6 inches of rainfall expected. Other areas of Area IV will likely experience elevated winds of 35-45 knots and 3 to 4 inches of rainfall.
• Update: At 12:00 a.m. UTC, Typhoon Mitag was located near 27.2N 122.1E with max. sustained winds of 75 knots, with higher gusts 90 kt. JTWC's cone and track forecast (warning #16) is now uploaded to Windy. View it on any forecast layer
• Update: Mitag has strengthened again. At 6:00 p.m. UTC, Typhoon Mitag was located near 26.3N, 122.7E, with max. sustained winds of 90 knots and gusts of 110 knots. JTWC Warning #15.
• Update: At 12:00 p.m. UTC, Typhoon Mitag was located near 24.6N 123.0E with max. sustained winds of 85 knots, with higher gusts of 105 kt (JTWC Warning #14)
• Update: Typhoon Mitag is strengthening. At 6:00 a.m. UTC, Mitag was located near 22.8N 123.0E with max. sustained winds of 75 knots, with higher gusts of 90 kt (JTWC Warning 13).
• Update: At 12:00 a.m. UTC, Typhoon Mitag was located near 21.7N 122.9E with max. sustained winds of 65 kt, with higher gusts of 80 knots (View the JTWC Warning 12 cone).
  
• Update: At 6:00 p.m. UTC, Typhoon Mitag was located near 21.1N, 123.7E with max. sustained winds of 65 kt, with higher gusts of 80 kt (JTWC Warning 11). We've uploaded the latest Typhoon Mitag cone & track forecast by JTWC (Advisory #11), click here to view its interactive version on any Windy layer.
• Update: Mitag has stenghtened to a Typhoon. At 12:00 p.m. UTC, Typhoon Mitag (19W, or Onyok in Philippines) was located near 20.2N 124.7E, approximately 415 NM south-southwest of Kadena AB, with max. sustained winds of 65 kt, gusts of 80 kt. Mitag has tracked northwestward at 12 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height at 12:00 p.m. UTC is 27 feet (JTWC Warning #10).

• (Click here to view an interactive warning #10 cone on any Windy layer)

• Update: We've uploaded the latest JTWC cone to Windy (warning #7). Click here to view it on any Windy layer.
• Update: Early on Saturday, Mitag (19W, Onyok) strengthened to Tropical Storm, earning its name, and becoming the 18th tropical storm of the season. Mitag is forecast to affect Taiwan, China, South Korea and Japan.

Previous coverage

A developing tropical disturbance (Invest 91W) in the West Pacific is becoming better organized, forecast to become a strong typhoon as it heads towards Japan and Korea.

The system is forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Mitag over the Philippine Sea by Friday/Sunday, then a typhoon this weekend.

According to JTWC, significant intensification is possible the next several days. Mitag will impact the Ryukyu Islands early next week, then mainland Japan around midweek.

Here’s the 10-Day max. winds forecast, a comparison of the forecast models, updated on 26 Sept 2019 at 12 p.m. for ECMWF and at 6 p.m. UTC for GFS.

https://www.windy.com/upload/5d94aa763f5ac70019c10d97?satellite,24.966,125.859,4,internal

Recently we had an article about the perfect Monsoon, now here’s a one about the perfect shot. Don’t worry, it’s weather related.

I am sure you won’t disagree, if I'll tell you the picture of lenticular cloud over erupting Etna — you can see below — is the perfect shot.

If not the best shot of Mt. Etna you've ever seen, then it's at least one of the best, right?

The picture was shot on 27 July 2019 as a single shot (Canon 6D, Canon 70-20mm, 4 sec, ISO 3200, f2.8) by Dario Giannobile from Palermo, Italy, who gives you more details on how did it “happened” (there’s also a 13 shots blend photo below the story).

Here’s the story (formatting is mine)

I was preparing to photograph the Moon that stood near the star Aldebaran. I had decided to go near the small town of Bronte, to the western side of the volcano Etna (Unesco Site), and wait for dawn.

On the same day, however, Etna awoke and two cracks in the south-east crater began intense volcanic activity with the formation of two lava flows and sporadic pyroclastic material jets.

The phenomenon could be observed from the south-south west slopes but despite having the possibility of going to the site, I decided to respect the initial plan.

To my enormous surprise, I could see that some lenticular clouds aligned perfectly on the mountain top from the point of shooting I had initially chosen.

The show was incredible!!!!....especially when the Moon rose.

The most beautiful moment occurred when it passed behind the cloud allowing me to capture various celestial and terrestrial details

The Moon in cinereal light whose brightness was partially shielded, the same lenticular cloud, iridescences spread over the edge of the cloud, contrasts of shadows and lights in the sky with the cloud that partially blocked the Moon rays leaving the stars in the dark sky visible and finally…. the eruption with the fountains and the lava flow.

Star Trail and Lenticular Cloud Over Mount Etna Eruption

Blend 13 shots, Canon 6D, Canon 70-20mm, 8 sec, ISO 3200, f2.8

Don’t miss other photos from Dario, you can follow him on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram (@dariogiannobile) or visit his website.

Related links

• Is it UFO or Altocumulus Lenticularis?

Is climate change real? Are the damaging effects foreseen by scientists real? Are we - humans - really responsible for a climate change? Are CO2 emissions the cause of the problem? What if the scientists' models are wrong? What if climate change is a Hoax after all?

We need reliable evidence of harm, before we take any action, right?

What if it's all wrong perspective and we are asking the wrong question? What if it's not about the accuracy of the models and it's rather about the scale of the possible damage?

What if the uncertainty about climate models should lead us to a more conservative, more cautious, "greener" stance, even if one disbelieved the models?

Welcome to precautionary principle.

I strongly encourage you to read the a short statement by Joseph Norman, Rupert Read, Yaneer Bar-Yam, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Read the statement below or download the article as PDF from Taleb's website

Climate models and precautionary measure

THE POLICY DEBATE with respect to anthropogenic climate-change typically revolves around the accuracy of models. Those who contend that models make accurate predictions argue for specific policies to stem the foreseen damaging effects; those who doubt their accuracy cite a lack of reliable evidence of harm to warrant policy action.

These two alternatives are not exhaustive. One can sidestep the "skepticism" of those who question existing climate-models, by framing risk in the most straightforward possible terms, at the global scale. That is, we should ask "what would the correct policy be if we had no reliable models?"

We have only one planet. This fact radically constrains the kinds of risks that are appropriate to take at a large scale. Even a risk with a very low probability becomes unacceptable when it affects all of us – there is no reversing mistakes of that magnitude.

Without any precise models, we can still reason that polluting or altering our environment significantly could put us in uncharted territory, with no statistical trackrecord and potentially large consequences. It is at the core of both scientific decision making and ancestral wisdom to take seriously absence of evidence when the consequences of an action can be large. And it is standard textbook decision theory that a policy should depend at least as much on uncertainty concerning the adverse consequences as it does on the known effects.

Further, it has been shown that in any system fraught with opacity, harm is in the dose rather than in the nature of the offending substance: it increases nonlinearly to the quantities at stake. Everything fragile has such property. While some amount of pollution is inevitable, high quantities of any pollutant put us at a rapidly increasing risk of destabilizing the climate, a system that is integral to the biosphere. Ergo, we should build down CO2 emissions, even regardless of what climate-models tell us.

This leads to the following asymmetry in climate policy. The scale of the effect must be demonstrated to be large enough to have impact. Once this is shown, and it has been, the burden of proof of absence of harm is on those who would deny it.

It is the degree of opacity and uncertainty in a system, as well as asymmetry in effect, rather than specific model predictions, that should drive the precautionary measures. Push a complex system too far and it will not come back. The popular belief that uncertainty undermines the case for taking seriously the ’climate crisis’ that scientists tell us we face is the opposite of the truth. Properly understood, as driving the case for precaution, uncertainty radically underscores that case, and may even constitute it.

There's more about the principle on Taleb's website. Also, read this Taleb's document on skepticism.

https://www.windy.com/-CO-concentration-cosc?cosc,-1.406,22.676,3,internal

Pilots will love this flight planning tool. Although Windy recently released its own route planner (Distance & planning) that has VFR chart built in, this plugin is coded specifically for pilots. It extends Windy's forecast layers with feature-rich flight planning and airspaces (Airspaces is available as a separate plugin too - see our list of Windy plugins).

Here's a short tutorial on how to use Flight Planner plugin..

Getting started

To load Flight Planner plugin, enter it's short name (fp) to www.windy.com/plugins and click Load plugin.

After plugin is loaded, you can access Flight Planner via contextual menu (right-click or long press).

Now you can use the weather picker to add a waypoint.

Or click an airport icon to add a waypoint.

You can also use the search option to add a waypoint.

Or enter coordinates in the search bar.

You can also load a flight plan, supported formats: gpx/efp or ep1 (easycockpit or easyplan).

1. You can set the altitude, airspeed and estimated time of departure for each leg. To set the time, select a single leg, by long-pressing the row.
2. Once the flightplan is completed, you can drag the aircraft icon to view the weather at the point where you will be, and at the selected time and level. The program will use the interpolator function to obtain the weather info for the current overlay.
3. For wind: the ground speed is calculated and the aircraft icon will crab.

You can also use the elevation strip at the bottom, to move the aircraft icon.

The plugin can collect the weather data for overlays that you select.

1. First select the overlays and select alert values.
2. Then click Read Wx. The program will zoom in and fly along the route to collect the weather data for each overlay. This will take a few seconds, but can take about a minute for a long route. Do not drag the map while this is happening.
3. When you now slide the aircraft icon, all the selected data will be shown in the box.

Once the Wx data have been collected, the program will calculate the corrected ETE, average ground speed and the ETE for the entire trip.

You can also drag waypoints, first click "allow drag" (1) then drag them to the new position (2) and click OK. Then "lock drag" (1) again, to prevent accidentally dragging when sliding the aircraft icon.

The plugin contains the previous airspaces plugin, airspace data is obtained from openAIP.net.

According to Rasmus Tonboe's tweet, climate researcher Steffen M. Olsen had a tough job in North West Greenland this year while he was retrieving an oceanographic moorings and weather station on sea ice. "Rapid melt and sea ice with low permeability and few cracks leaves the melt water on top", Tonboe adds in his tweet.

In a huge thread below the tweet, Steffen M. Olsen, who is also the author of the heartbreaking picture, gives us more details about the conditions at the spot.

We know the ice is around 1.2m thick and that we have about 870m water below us. Together with the local hunters we have been meassuring also ice thickness from December to now. An ongoing activity for almost a decade now.

The photo was taken on Thursday 13th june around mid afternoon local time on sea ice, near Qaanaaq, middle of Inglefield Fjord, 77N.

https://www.windy.com/annotation/5d0b61202292900019bc4c58

To download this video just click with right mouse button on this link and select "Save link as..."

This video is licenced under Creative Commons licence (CC-BY 3) and can be used/modified freely in any possible way. Just mention Windy.com

Create your own animation at https://www.windy.com/animate

Všimnul jsem si toho před pár dny, a je to paráda, hlavně jak to krásně odděluje pevninu. Ještě by se mi líbil nějaký hybrid s IR ;-)

Congrats!

Today is the 51st Anniversary of the Hurricane Camille landfall in Mississippi on August 17, 1969.

Hurricane Camille made landfall late in the evening near Waveland, Mississippi. Combination of wind, surge, and rainfall resulted in 256 deaths (143 along the Gulf Coast and 113 in the Virginia floods).

Quick Facts

• Hurricane Camille made landfall, along the Mississippi Gulf Coast near Waveland late in the evening on August 17
• Camille is one of only four Category 5 hurricanes ever to make landfall in the continental United States (Atlantic Basin)
• Camille ranks as the 2nd most intense hurricane to strike the continental US, and resulted in 256 deaths
• The actual maximum sustained winds of the hurricane are not known as Hurricane Camille destroyed all the wind-recording instruments in the landfall area
• Re-analysis data found landfall intensity and peak winds of 150 knots (roughly 175 mph) along the coast, with 900 mb pressure
• A devastating storm tide of 24.6 feet occurred west of our area in Pass Christian, Mississippi.

Hurricane Camille path, timeline of the damage, in-depth description of the event, and also short fact-check of the often-publicized “hurricane party” story can be found in my Hurricane Camille article at Extreme Weather Club website.

Contact @Korina, she will help you with that

ECMWF/CAMS Forecasts of Aerosol Optical Depth for Sunday 23/02 at 1800 UTC (forecast based Sunday 23/02 at 0000 UTC) and for Friday 28/02 at 1500 UTC (forecast based Thursday 27/02 at 0000 UTC)

After desert dust grounded flights in the Canary Islands, forecasts from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) can help track where the dust goes next to help both the transport industry and travellers

A large swathe of desert dust from the Sahara swept across the Canary Islands earlier this week, turning skies red and prompting travel chaos – and also causing extreme levels of particulate matter. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reveals how its forecasts help businesses and individuals plan against its impact. CAMS is implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts on behalf of the European Commission.

CAMS is continually monitoring the movement of desert dust over the North Atlantic Ocean and the latest global and regional forecasts of aerosol optical depth and surface particulate matter (PM10) are predicting that it will travel across southern and western Europe in the coming days with impacts on air quality and a number of activity sectors, such as solar power generation across the Iberian peninsula.

By providing these forecasts of the amount and location of desert dust in the atmosphere, CAMS can help scientists, environmental agencies, energy and transportation companies, businesses and individuals make plans and mitigate its effects. It is not only transportation which can be affected by desert dust incidents, but particles from the plumes, which can often travel thousands of kilometres, can have health impacts.

Produced twice a day, forecasts take into account the emission, transport and deposition of the dust by combining satellite observations with a state-of-the-art computer model to accurately predict the amount of dust that is generated by surface winds and how the distribution of the resulting plumes will change over the next five days.

Greater knowledge of dust deposition can help organisations monitor air quality and also susceptible individuals who can change their plans or behaviour, such as not drying clothes outside or parking their car indoor if this is possible for them.

Vincent-Henri Peuch, Director of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, comments: “As we have seen from the incident affecting flights to and from the Canary Islands, dust particles can not only cause huge disruption, but affect people’s health as well. This is why it’s vital to have accurate forecasts and CAMS not only provide these, but work with companies and organisations which can relay this information to the public through smartphone or tablet apps and websites.”

“In fact, CAMS delivers forecasts of dust and of other key air pollutants to leading applications providing air quality information to the public such as Windy, BreezoMeter, Plumelabs and iPhone´s weather app powered by The Weather Channel, ” he added.

Each model has a different update and reference times and it could be confusing what connection does it have to actual update. Before we get to how often are the weather models updated and where to find the update/reference time on Windy, let's see what's the difference between the reference time and the update time.

1. Reference time

Reference time is the time when a model starts a new forecast block. The process consists of the following:

• Initialisation - data are entered into the model, this creates Initial conditions (initialisation time) and then model starts calculating conditions.
• Assimilation - normalisation on data and assembling data for computation.
• Computation - calculating the future atmospheric rates of change in time increments.
• Data extraction - extracting data into regular forecast intervals.
• Data storage - data are stored and written in accessible format.
• Data postprocessing - special postprocessing routines

For example model ECMWF has an update interval 12 hours, that means the first reference time will be 00:00:00Z (Zulu time) and second one 12:00:00Z.

2. Update time

Update time is time between the reference time and the actual update. The whole process of data computation takes approximately from 8 to 9 hours. For example the ECMWF model update times are 07:15:00Z and 19:15:00Z.

When and how often are the weather data updated?

The table below describes when and how often are the weather models updated. All times are in UTC.

Where to find the reference and the update time

While on desktop, to get the reference and the update time, just click the clock icon in bottom right corner of the screen. In app, you have to dig deeper into the menu. See the screenshots below.

@idefix37 Thanks!

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Sprawdzanie kamery pogodowej jest niezbędnym elementem każdej przygody.

A my w Windy jesteśmy zobowiązani do zapewniania coraz lepszych usług osobom takim jak my sami. Dla pilotów, kiterów, poszukiwaczy przygód, alpinistów i wszystkich dusz, które są raczej na zewnątrz niż w centrum handlowym.

Ale nie tylko. W Windy wierzymy, że sprawdzanie kamer internetowych na zewnątrz przed przygodą, na przykład przed lotem małym samolotem, może znacznie zwiększyć poziom bezpieczeństwa. —Ivo

Dołącz do społeczności Windy i udostępnij kamerę internetową publiczności na całym świecie. Możesz przesłać swoją kamerę internetową za pomocą tego formularza (kliknij TUTAJ), odpowiadając na kilka prostych pytań.

Windy sprawdzi twoje zgłoszenie, a gdy kamera internetowa zostanie zatwierdzona, otrzymasz powiadomienie o pomyślnym zgłoszeniu. Twoja kamera internetowa zostanie uruchomiona..

Jeśli zastanawiasz się nad zakupem kamery internetowej lub właśnie kupujesz kamerę internetową, sprawdź poniższą listę obsługiwanych urządzeń.

Rzeczy do rozważenia przed przesłaniem kamery internetowej do Windy

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• Restreamer
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Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand has strengthened and developed an eye, as confirmed in imagery from NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite.

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard Suomi NPP provided a visible image of Ferdinand and showed that an eye opened as the storm continued to intensify. A thick band of powerful bands of thunderstorms circled the eye.

NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite found that Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand has developed an eye as it continued to strengthen in the Southern Indian Ocean on Feb. 25, 2020.

On Feb. 25 at 10 a.m. EST (1500 UTC), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of JTWC noted that Tropical cyclone Ferdinand was located near 15.8 degrees south latitude and 116.5 degrees east longitude, approximately, 413 nautical miles north-northeast of Learmonth, Western Australia.

Ferdinand was moving to the southwest and maximum sustained winds had increased to 90 knots (104 mph/167 kph). That is the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.

JTWC forecasts that Ferdinand will move southwest and strengthen slightly more before starting to weaken. The storm is then expected to curve to the northwest through the Southern Indian Ocean.

Tropical cyclones are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA’s expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.

Related content

• What is a tropical cyclone
• What’s the difference between a hurricane, typhoon, cyclone and tornado
• What's the difference between sustained winds and wind gusts

https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satellite?satellite,-17.853,105.381,5,internal

The weather event known as the "Calima" came to Canary Islands again on Saturday afternoon. Strong winds blowing out of Western Sahara brought massive dust storm to northern Canaries, leading to cancelation of all flights in and out of Gran Canaria and all flights leaving Tenerife, due to severely impacted visibility.

Gran Canaria, Fuerteventura and Lanzarote are among the most affected locations. To see the extent of the storm, check out the webcams on Windy and the videos shared via Twitter (embeded below).

The storm is so huge it's visible from space as you can see in the satellite loop from 12 a.m. to 6 p.m. UTC today.

https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satellite?satellite,27.868,-17.325,7,internal