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Update March 11th 2022, 11:00 a.m. UTC

Gombe made landfall as an intense tropical cyclone (Category 3 equivalent) with devastating winds, heavy rainfall and storm surge.

After landfall, winds have weakened to 84 km/h, but rainfall still remains a significant threat as it may result in flooding in Mozambique and southern Malawi for several days

Update March 10th 2022, 11:00 p.m. UTC

Cyclone Gombe has intensified and currently approaching landfall between Angoche and Isle of Mozambique. Maximum sustainable winds are 148 km/h.

Tropical cyclone is located approximately 15.9S 41.4E, while producing significant wave heights near the northern coast of Mozambique.

Gombe may continue to strengthen right up until landfall. Dangerous storm surge, flooding and damaging winds are likely as the system comes closer to the coast.

Update March 10th 2022, 10.30 a.m. UTC

Tropical Cyclone Gombe, currently located near 15.6S 42.8E, has moved over Madagascar as a tropical storm. The system has intensified over the water to a Tropical Cyclone category 1 with the intensity of 65 knots (120 km/h), heading towards the west at 8 knots (15 km/h).

Gombe is forecasted to slow down as it makes landfall and moves over Mozambique. It is expected that the system will intensify prior to landfall and rapidly weaken as it will move over the land.

It is likely that Gombe will bring significant and destructive flooding.

https://www.windy.com/-Wind-accumulation-gustAccu?gustAccu,-17.947,35.409,6,internal

Update: 9th of July 2021, 10.00 a.m.

Located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 74.3 West, Tropical Storm Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 27 knots (31 mph). This general motion is expected to continue, followed by an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days.

It is forecasted that the system will pass through the eastern mid-Atlantic states early this morning, and move near or over the northeastern United States by late morning and this afternoon and tonight. Elsa should be over the Altlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 43.5 knots (50 mph) with higher gusts. A significant change in strength isn't expected today. By tonight, Elsa should become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight.

Long Island and southern and coastal New England will be affected by heavy rainfall that could lead to flash and urban flooding.
Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic coast. These conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by late this morning and afternoon.
Gusty winds can be expected over portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.

Update: 8th of July 2021, 2.00 p.m.

Tropical Storm Elsa, now located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 80.5 West, has made a second landfall along Florida's northern Gulf Coast, bringing heavy rainfall.
Elsa is now moving toward the northeast near 15,6 knots (18 mph), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days.

The system is now moving over South Carolina, heading towards North Carolina, then pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight, move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night, and then move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night or Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 knots (40 mph) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight and on Friday as the system moves close to the northeastern United States.
Elsa should become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday night and Saturday.

Heavy rainfall that may result in flash and urban flooding can be expected within the warning area.

Update: 7th of July 2021, 9.30 a.m.

Located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 83.5 West, Tropical Storm Elsa is moving towards the north near 12 knots (14 mph). This general motion is expected to continue, followed by a turn towards north-northeast later this afternoon or tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday.

Elsa will move near or over the portions of the west coast of Florida and make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late this morning or afternoon. The system is then forecasted to move across the southeastern and mid-Atlantic United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 56.5 knots (65 mph) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in the intensity are possible until landfall, then weakening will begin as Elsa moves over the land.

Tropical Storm will wring heavy rainfall that may result in a flash, urban, and isolated moderate river flooding.

Update: 6th of July 2021, 9.30 a.m.

Tropical Storm Elsa has made landfall along the south coast of Cuba with sustained winds of 52 knots (60 mph).

The system is currently located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 82.4 West, moving toward the north-northwest near 10,5 knots (12 mph). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north by tonight. A north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday.

Elsa is forecasted to pass near the Florida Keys this morning, and move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 52 knots (60 mph) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected throughout the night before Elsa makes landfall in Florida, potentially near hurricane strength. As the Tropical Storm moves inland, weakening is expected.

Update: 5th of July 2021, 11.30 a.m.

Currently located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 79.9 West, Tropical Strom Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 12 knots (14 mph). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn towards the north-northwest on Tuesday.

The system is forecasted to move across central and western Cuba later today and pass near the Florida Keys early on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 56 knots (65 mph) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before Elsa moves over Cuba later today followed by some weakening as the system moves over the land. Once Elsa moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico, some strengthening is expected.

Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surges are expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba this morning, in portions of the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida tonight and Tuesday.

Update: 4th of July 2021, 12.30 a.m.

Elsa, located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 76.2 West, has weakened into a tropical storm. The system is moving towards the west-northwest near 11 knots (13 mph). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or on Monday.

It is forecasted for Elsa to move away from the southern portion of Haiti during the next couple of hours, then continue moving near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba today, and approach central Cuba tonight.
On Monday, Elsa is expected to continue moving across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits.

Maximum sustained winds are near 56,5 knots (65 mph) with higher gusts.

Update: 3rd of July 2021, 10.30 a.m.

Hurricane Elsa was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 69.0 West. Elsa is moving towards the west-northwest near 27 knots (31 mph). A decrease in forwarding speed is expected later today and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Sunday night or Monday.

Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola later today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. At the beginning of the week, the system is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 knots (75 mph) with higher gusts. It is forecasted for the system to slowly weaken on Sunday and Monday when the system is near or over Cuba.

Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surges are expected in areas of Haiti and the Dominican Republic later today and in Jamaica beginning Sunday.

Update: 2nd of July 2021, 11.30 a.m.

The center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 60.1 West. The system is moving towards the west-northwest near 24 knots (28 mph) and this motion is expected throughout the next couple of days.

Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands later today move across the eastern Caribbean Sea late today and tonight and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday**. It is expected that Elsa will move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba by Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 65 knots (75 mph) with higher gusts.

Hurricane conditions are occurring in Barbados and are expected in the Hurricane Warning area within the next few hours. In portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands, tropical storm conditions are expected. Elsa will bring heavy rainfall to these areas. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico and southern Hispaniola by early Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible over Jamaica on Saturday night.
There is a risk of wind and rainfall in portions of Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas early next week.

https://www.windy.com/articles/ts-elsa-moving-towards-windward-island-or-the-leeward-islands-17095?gustAccu,39.045,-81.255,5,internal

Update 5th August 6:30 a. m. UTC

Currently located at 46.1N 72.2W, Isaias weakened into a Post-Tropical Cyclone. It is now moving toward the north-northeast near 56 km/h (30 knots) with an expected decrease within the next hours.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 65 km/h (35 knots). It is forecasted that the wind will drop below tropical-storm-force within the next few hours and dissipate over southeastern Canada.

The threat of tornadoes will continue over portions of Maine for a few more hours.

Update 4th August 8:30 a.m. UTC

Isaias made landfall in the Carolinas as a hurricane and weakened into a Tropical Storm. Currently located near 35.9N 77.7.W, Isaias continues its movement toward the NNE with a present movement of 43 km/h (23 knots).

Maximum sustained winds are reported to be near 110 km/h (59 knots) with gusts to 82 km/h (44 knots).

Isaias will bring heavy rainfall, storm surge, and a threat of tornadoes.

Update 3rd August 9:00 p.m. UTC

Isaias is currently predicted to be hurricane or near the hurricane strength, when it reaches northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina on Monday evening.

Maximum sustainable winds are 110 km/h (59 KT) and location at 32.0N 79.4W.

Arrival to the coastline posses a threat of dangerous storm surge and residents should follow advices from emergency officials.

Hurricane should bring tropical storm force winds and gusts to the mid-Atlantic coast on Tuesday. Heavy rainfall along the East Coast will cause flash and urban flooding, especially in the eastern Carolinas.

Update 3rd August 10:00 a.m. UTC

Isaias is forecasted to regain the hurricane strength before it reaches the coast of eastern Carolinas. The exact location is at 29.7N 79.9W with maximum sustainable winds 113 km/h (60 KT). Isaias is moving to the north at 15 km/h (8 KT) and there is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the immediate coastline of northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina.

Heavy rainfall may result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread from Florida to portions of southern New England through Tuesday afternoon.

Update 2nd August 8:00 p.m. UTC

Isaias is located approximately 135 km southeast of Cape Canaveral Florida and 65 km east-southeast of Vero Beach Florida with maximum sustainable winds 100 km/h (56 KT).

Tropical storm warning is in effect from Jupiter Inlet, Florida, to Surf City, North Carolina. Storm watch is active for areas from North of Surf City to Duck North Carolina.

Tropical storm conditions will persist along the east coast of Florida through early Monday. Isaias will reach Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina Monday and early Tuesday.

Update 2nd August 1:00 p.m. UTC

Isaias continued to weaken and has not regain a hurricane strength. However it will likely keep its intensity of a strong tropical storm.

Storm is positioned just off the coast of South Florida right now and should be tracking near Florida's eastern coast through Sunday.

The final landfall is predicted on Monday night or early Tuesday in South Carolina or southeast North Carolina.

Maximum winds weakened to 101 km/h (55 KT) with movement speed 14 km/h (8 KT).

Update 2nd August 1:00 a.m. UTC

Isaias has weakened into a tropical storm as it headed towards the Florida coast with maximum sustainable winds 111 km/h (60 KT) and moving speed 11 km/h (6 KT).

It is expected to intensify into a hurricane again overnight and the center of the storm should hit Florida coast Saturday evening or early Sunday.

Update 1st August 3:00 p.m. UTC

The center of hurricane Isaias is currently moving over the northern Andros Island and should reach Grand Bahama Island in the Northwestern Bahamas later today.

Exact location is at 24.7N 77.9W with maximum sustainable winds 130 km/h (69 KT). Hurricane is moving to the northwest at 19 km/h (16 KT).

Hurricane conditions and storm surge will continue in the northwest Bahamas today and during Sunday, threat is heavy rains and flash flooding.

East coast of Florida should prepare for dangerous storm surge, especially in areas from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach.

Update 31st July 9:00 p.m. UTC

Isaias is located at 22.2N 75.2W with maximum sustainable winds 120 km/h (65 KT). The threats are life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in the affected areas.

Majority of Bahamas is under a hurricane warning. Hurricane watches have been issued for parts of Florida's Atlantic coast - Hallendale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida and Volusia-Brevard County Line.

Hurricane conditions are expected to occur today and on Saturday in portions of the Bahamas.

Update 31st July 7 a. m. UTC

Isaias has become the second hurricane of the 2020 season. Located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 72.7 West, Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 30 km/h (16 knots). Its movement toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. Then it is expected to move toward the north-northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 km/h (70 knots) with higher gusts. It is expected that Isaias will strengthen and remain a hurricane for the next couple of days.

The center of Isaias will move near or over the Southeastern Bahamas and move near or over the Northwestern Bahamas and near South Florida on Saturday.

Hurricane will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, possible storm surge in affected areas.

Update 30th July 8.30 a. m. UTC

Tropical Storm Isaias becomes the ninth named cyclone of the 2020 Atlantic season. Located 16.7N 67.2W, Isaias moves near 30 km/h (16 knots) toward the northwest. The expected motion is toward west-northwest to the northwest with some decrease in forward speed in the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 km/h (46 knots) with higher gusts.

Isaias will move over Hispaniola later today and near the Southeastern Bahamas on Friday.

Heavy rains that can trigger potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected from the Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

https://www.windy.com/upload/5f23cd153102b40019bd3e0e?gustAccu,26.189,-78.571,5,internal

Update: 4th of November, 10:30 p.m. UTC

Tropical Storm Goni (Rolly), located near 14.4N 113.3E, east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam is moving slowly across the South China Sea toward Vietnam, near 8 km/h (4 knots).

Maximum sustained winds are 65 km/h (35 knots).

Over the next couple of days, Goni is expected to move west-southwestward and make landfall along the south-central Vietnam coast as a tropical depression later on Friday.

Now a tropical storm Goni (Rolly) is located near 14.7N 119.5E in the West Philippine Sea with maximum winds 101 km/h (55 KT). Storm has been tracking west-northwestward in the last 6 hours.

As Goni further weakens, it is expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Tuesday morning

Update: 1st of November, 10:00 a.m. UTC

After landfall over the eastern coast of Catanduanes, Goni continues its movement toward the west-southwest. The second landfall is expected over southern Vietnam near Qui Nohn.

Goni has weakened significantly since the landfall but still is a powerful and life-threatening cyclone. It is expected that the system will continue to weaken primarily due to land interaction and is expected to emerge over the South China Sea with maximum one-minute-sustained winds 165 km/h (90 knots) during the late evening hours on Sunday.

Although Goni will weaken rapidly over the terrain of southern Indochina, heavy rainfall will affect ongoing flooding in central Vietnam.

Update: 31th of October, 11:00 p.m. UTC

Goni has made landfall on Catanduanes island on Sunday at 04:50 local time as equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustainable winds of 314 km/h and even higher gusts.

The storm is now making a second landfall over the Bicol Region, specifically over Albay and Camarines Sur provinces.

Expected threats are destructive typhoon winds, life-threatening storm surges and heavy rainfall, causing landslides and flooding.

Update: 31th of October, 1:00 p.m. UTC

Super typhoon Goni (Rolly), located 14.7N 127.6E, east of Manila, Philippines, has tracked west-southwestward at 24 km/h (13 knots).

The system will continue its current tract then slightly weaken and head westward and make landfall over central Luzon on early Sunday, then track over Manila, and exit into the South China Sea.

The second and final landfall is expected over central Vietnam, south of Da Nang.

Maximum sustained winds are 287 km/h (155 kt) with gusts 352 km/h (190 kt).

Update: 30th of October, 10:00 p.m. UTC

Goni (Rolly) has yet again intensified and the maximum winds are peaking at 287 km/h (155 KT) and gusts 351 km/h (190 KT).

Typhoon maintains its Category 5 and is predicted to track westward and make landfall on early Sunday in central Luzon, northeast of Manila. However Goni should weaken to Cat. 4 before the landfall.

Update: 30th of October, 10:30 a.m. UTC

Goni has undergone a rapid intensification in the last hours. The storm has maximum winds of 277 km/h (150 KT) with even higher gusts, making Goni the Earth’s strongest storm of the year.

Typhoon continues its movement near 16.3N 131.6E over warm waters of the Philippine Sea. Warm environment is very favorable condition for further intensification. Forecasts predicts Goni to maintain a Category 5 strength over the next 36 hours.

Landfall is predicted on early Sunday in central Luzon and could be potentially destructive.

Update: 29th of October, 9:00 a.m. UTC

Goni (local name Rolly) has strengthened into a typhoon. Currently located near 16.8N 135.8E, east of Manila, Philippines, Goni is moving toward the west-northwest at 17 km/h (9 KT) speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 km/h (70 KT), with gusts near 157 km/h (85 KT).

It is expected that Goni will move generally westward by Saturday evening, then west-northwestward by Sunday as it moves towards Quezon – Aurora area before making landfall over the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas this weekend Sunday morning.

It is forecasted that Goni will intensify into typhoon Category 3 while moving over the Philippine Sea. As it moves towards eastern sections of Central and Southern Luzon, it may bring heavy rains over these areas starting this Friday.

https://www.windy.com/-Wind-accumulation-gustAccu?gustAccu,14.998,114.554,6,internal

Update: 26th of November, 02:30 p.m. UTC

Nivar has further weakened into a deep tropical depression after making landfall near Puducherry. The storm is currently centered west-southwest of Tirupati.

Maximum winds are 93 km/h (50 kt).

Heavy rainfall is causing flooding. A flood alert has been issued in Vellore and flood warning to people residing in low-lying areas.

Update: 26th of November, 01:00 a.m. UTC

Cyclone Nivar has made landfall north of Puducherry and Mamallapuram in Tamil Nadu at 3:05 a.m. local time.

Nivar has weakened and moving north-northwest wards near 12.0N 80.1E with maximum sustainable winds of 129 km/h (70 kt). The storm should further weaken into cyclonic storm in the next 6 hours.

Heavy showers and high winds still continue in Puducherry and Chennai and will likely extend till at least Thursday afternoon.

Update: 25th of November, 10:00 a.m. UTC

Nivar was located near 11.2N 81.8E, southwest of Kolkata, India continues to strengthen. The system is moving near 16.6 km/h (9 knots), tracking toward the southeastern coast of India.

Maximum sustained winds are near 111 km/h (60 knots).

The system has favorable conditions over the Bay of Bengal that will lead to additional strengthening before making landfall south of Chennai, later today.

It is forecasted that Nivar will reach hurricane-equivalent strength later and will reach a peak intensity of 140 km/h (75 knots). After landfall, Nivar is expected to rapidly weaken.

Heavy rainfall and strong winds continue to lash the coasts of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

Update: 24th of November, 11:00 a.m. UTC

Tropical cyclone Nivar was located near 9.5N 83.3E, 283 km northeast of Kalmunai, Sri Lanka. Nivar is generally moving toward the northwest, with a slight turn to left this morning, along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge to the northeast.

Maximum sustained winds are around 75 km/h (40 knots) with a forward motion at 6 km/h (3 knots).

It is forecasted that the system will reach an intensity of 139 km/h (75 knots) and then make landfall on Wednesday along the eastern coast of India, south of Chennai. The landfall will weaken the system which will dissipate as it moves inland by Friday morning.

https://www.windy.com/-Wind-accumulation-gustAccu?gustAccu,9.882,71.719,5,internal

Update 6th of September 2022, 4.30 p.m. UTC

The cyclone Batsirai, which has made landfall on the east coast of Madagascar on Saturday evening, has weakened as it moved inland.

Located near 22.9S 44.4E, Batsirai is moving southwestward at 10 knots (18.5 km/h). Maximum sustained winds are near 50 knots (93 km/h).

Batsirai is expected to emerge at the sea in the Mozambique Channel later on Sunday, track towards the south avoiding mainland Africa and weaken into a subtropical cyclone.

Although the system has weakened, the cyclone is expected to cause significant and widespread damage.

Update 5th of February 2022, 10.00 p.m. UTC

Batsirai made landfall near the city Mananjary with maximum sustainable winds of 165 km/h, gusts reached up to 230 km/h. The storm was equivalent of category 3 cyclone.

Cyclone will rapidly weaken as it moves inland over the rugged terrain of Madagascar. However heavy rainfall should continue throughout the rest of the night, causing very dangerous conditions.

Update 5th of February 2022, 11.00 a.m. UTC

Citizens of Madagascar are bracing for the landfall of Batsirai, which is currently just a few hours away from striking the coast with hurricane-force winds, torrential rain and floods, posing a serious threat to millions.

Cyclone is located near 19.9S 51.3E with maximum winds of 185 km/h, moving at 14 km/h.

Landfall is expected between afternoon and evening today on the east coast as an intense tropical cyclone, winds could reach up to 200 km/h and waves up to 15 metres.

Update 4th of February 2022, 10.00 p.m. UTC

Cyclone Batsirai is now approaching Madagascar coast with estimated winds of 212 km/h, equivalent to Category 4 hurricane, This phase of intensification could continue up to landfall.

Batsirai is predicted to hit the land between cities Mahanoro and Mananjarn, on Saturday afternoon, local time.

Preparations should be rushed to completion, as the cyclone will bring heavy rainfall of 30 cm, very powerful winds and storm surge. Landslides and flooding could leave tens of thousands of people homeless.

Update 4th of February 2022, 10.30 a.m. UTC

Continuing its track towards the west-southwest at 6 knots (11 km/h), Batsirai was located near 19.4.S 53.9E. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 knots (194 km/h).

Batsirai is expected to make landfall over central Madagascar on Saturday. The system will then continue to track west-southwest across the island and then enter the Mozambique channel and begin to track towards the south.

A slight intensification to 110 knots (204 km/h) is expected prior to the landfall. It is forecasted that the system will decrease its intensity once it moves over land and then reintensifies in the Mozambique Channel.

Update 3rd of February 2022, 10.00 a.m. UTC

Batsirai has rapidly strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane-equivalent strength as it passed to the north of the main island of Mauritius. The system is currently positioned near 19.1S 55.7E, moving near 4 knots (7.4 km/h) towards the west-southwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 knots (213 km/h) with gusts near 140 knots (259 km/h)

Environmental conditions are expected to remain favourable for Batsirai, leading to a potential period of re-intensification as Batsirai heads for the east-central coast of Madagascar on Saturday morning with an intensity of about 85 knots (157 km/h).

However, Batsirai's interaction with the mountainous terrain of Madagascar will likely rapidly weaken the system, some intensification is expected in the Mozambique Channel on Monday.

https://www.windy.com/-Wind-accumulation-gustAccu?gustAccu,-23.986,38.870,5,internal

Update: 27th of July 12:30 p.m. UTC

While Douglas remained a strong Category 1 hurricane, all the Hawaiian islands were saved from the direct hurricane force impacts. The hurricane warning for Kauai has been cancelled.

The system is now moving quickly away from Kauai and then farther out to sea at 25 km/h (13 KT) and maximum sustainable winds 62 km/h (33 KT).

Update: 27th of July, 08:00 a.m. UTC

Located near 22.2N 158.0W, Hurricane Douglas continues its movement toward the west-northwest near 26 km/h (14 knots). This motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. It's forecasted that Douglas will pass near Oahu and Kauai within the next hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 km/h (76 knots) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, however, Douglas will have a hurricane strength when passing near Oahu and Kauai.

Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands on Monday as well as damaging winds, and dangerously high surf.

Update: 26th of July, 10:30 p.m. UTC

Douglas remains a Category 1 hurricane moving west-northwest at 21.2N 155.7W, which places the center of the system east of Maui County.

The maximum sustainable winds are now 138 km/h (75 KT).

Hurricane watches are in effect for Oahu and Kauai County, tropical storm warnings are in effect for Hawaii County and Maui County.

Update: 26th of July, 02:30 p.m. UTC

The center of the Hurricane Douglas is located at 20.5N 153.6W and currently is moving toward the west-northwest near 26 km/h (14 knots). This motion is expected for the next couple of days. The forecast is that Douglas will pass very close to the main Hawaiian Islands later today.

Maximum sustained winds are 150 km/h (81 knots) with higher gusts. Douglas should be slowly weakening within the next 48 hours, but when passing near or over the islands, it will be with hurricane intensity. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 km from the center.

The close passage of Douglas brings damaging winds, flooding rainfall, and dangerously high surf, especially along east facing shores.

Update: 26th of July, 08:00 a.m. UTC

Hurricane Douglas is currently at 20.1N 152.0W with maximum sustainable winds 148 km/h (80 KT).

Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday through Monday. Strong winds, dangerous surf and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state.

Due to the Douglas nature of approach, it is essential to watch its movement closely as any slight change in its track can result into significant differences.

Hurricane watches have been issued for Oahu, Big Island of Hawaii, Maui County, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe.

Update: 26th of July, 01:00 a.m. UTC

Hurricane Douglas is currently at 19.5N 150.1W with maximum sustainable winds 148 km/h (80 KT).

After it strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane, Douglas is now slowly weakening, moving quickly west-northwest. However reaching land as a hurricane is still a possibility, faster weakening would cause Douglas to strike the islands only as a tropical storm.

Hurricane watches have been issued for Oahu, Big Island of Hawaii, Maui County, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe.

Due to the Douglas nature of approach, it is essential to watch its movement closely as any slight change in its track can result into significant differences.

Update: 25th of July, 02:30 p.m. UTC

Hurricane Douglas, located at 18.7N 147.7W, continues its journey west-northwest near 29 km/h (16 knots). This motion is expected to continue through Saturday with a slight decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west. Maximum sustained winds decreased to 177 km/h (95 knots).

While weakening is forecasted to continue through the weekend it still will be near hurricane strength when it is near the Hawaiian Island.
It is expected that Douglas will reach the Hawaiian Islands Saturday night through Sunday night, passing close or over them. Especially east facing shores should remain prepared for heavy rainfall, landslides and large swells.

Update: 25th of July, 06:30 a.m. UTC

Hurricane Douglas, located at 18.2N 145.9W, continues its journey west-northwest near 31 km/h (16 knots). This motion is expected to continue through Saturday with a slight decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west. Maximum sustained winds decreased to 185 km/h (100 knots). Its force winds extend outward up to 165 km from the center.

While weakening is forecasted to continue through the weekend it still will be near hurricane strength when it is near the Hawaiian Island.
It is expected that Douglas will reach the Hawaiian Islands Saturday night through Sunday night, passing close or over them.

Heavy rainfall, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and landslides is expected.
Hurricane conditions are possible on the Big Island late Saturday night and Sunday, tropical storm conditions by Saturday evening. These conditions are also over Maui County and Oahu.
Large swells, that could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions for a couple of days are expected.

Update: 24th of July, 08:30 a.m. UTC

Hurricane Douglas continues its movement toward the west-northwest near 30 km/h (16 knots), currently located at 15.9N 138.8. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 215 km/h (116 knots).

The motion towards the Hawaiian Islands is expected to continue for the next few days with a gradual decrease in forward speed and a slight turn toward the west.

The forecast indicates that Douglas will be near Hawaiian Island on Sunday possibly bringing strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall beginning on Saturday night or Sunday.

Update: 23rd of July, 10:30 a.m. UTC

Currently located at 13.1N 134.0W, Douglas is moving towards the west-northwest near 28 km/h (15 knots). Maximum sustained winds have increased to 195 km/h (105 knots). It is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend.

Hurricane Douglas is strengthening to become a major hurricane on Friday. This could impact Hawaii, whether it will make direct landfall or not, with heavy rainfall and winds.

Update: 21st of July, 10:30 a.m. UTC

Located at 13.0N 122.8W, Tropical Storm Douglas has become the fourth named cyclone of the 2020 Pacific hurricane season. The maximum sustained winds are 95 km/h (51 knots) and the present movement is 22 km/h (11 knots) towards west-southwest.

Douglas continues to strengthen and it is expected to reach hurricane strength on Wednesday and peak intensity on early Friday morning.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satellite?satellite,20.500,-162.389,5,internal

Update: 25th of July 2021, 1:00 p.m. UTC

Typhoon In-fa has made landfall in the China’s Zhejiang Province on Sunday with damaging winds and heavy rains.

Maximum winds are 101 km/h (55 kt) with higher gusts.

Typhoon landed in the Putuo district of the city of Zhoushan and caused flooding, power outages and relocation of more than 1 milion people.

Update: 24th of July 2021, 10:00 a.m. UTC

Weakening typhoon In-fa is currently tracking away from the southern Japanese islands, but could bring heavy rainfall to the eastern China by the end of weekend.

Typhoon is located near 27.3N 124.3E with maximum winds of 120 km/h (65 kt).

Rain and winds affecting the Japanese islands will persist into Saturday. In-fa will likely affect eastern China beginning Sunday. Landfall is expected between Shanghai and Wenzhou, bringing heavy rain and strong winds.

Update: 23rd of July 2021, 1.30 p.m. UTC

Located near latitude 24.6 North longitude 125.1. East, In-fa is moving northwestward at 4 knots (7.4 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 80 knots (148 km/h).

Turn towards north-northwest followed by a westwards turn with a slight intensification to 85 knots ( km/h) is expected. The system should then start gradually weaken as it approaches the China coast.
Interaction with the land will lead to rapid weakening and eventual dissipation.

Update: 22nd of July 2021, 11.30 a.m. UTC

Typhoon In-fa, located near latitude 23.5 North 125.9 East, is currently moving towards the west near 2 knots (4 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 85 knots (155 km/h).

The conditions are favorable enough for the system to restrengthen on Friday. It is forecasted that In-fa will reach a peak intensity of 90 knots (165 km/h) as it passes over the Yaeyama and Miyako Islands on Friday afternoon.

The system should begin to steadily weaken as it approaches the eastern coast of China this weekend and become a tropical storm before making landfall south of the city of Ningbo in China's Zhejiang province on Sunday morning.

Update: 21st of July 2021, 11.00 UTC

Located near latitude 24.2 North longitude 127.3 East, Typhoon In-fa is currently moving westward near 3 knots (6 km/h). The cyclone is expected to peak at 105 knots (195 km/h), possibly to strengthen into the equivalent of a Category 3 major hurricane, before it reaches the Yaeyama Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 95 knots (175 km/h).

A turn toward the northwest is expected as In-fa moves across the East China Sea this weekend. The cyclone will begin to steadily weaken while it's passing Taiwan to the northeast on Saturday and making landfall over the Zhejiang province of eastern China on Sunday morning.

Then the system should start rapidly weaken, bringing heavy rainfall to the region through the beginning of the next week.

Update: 20th of July 2021, 11.00 a.m.

Typhoon In-fa (Fabian), currently located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 129.7 East, is moving towards the west near 10 kt (19 km/h).

Maximum sustained wind are near 65 kt (120 km/h).

The system moves through a favorable environment which will be conducive for further development as it passes to the south of Okinawa this evening and draws closer to the Miyako and Yaeyama Islands.

Some, possibly rapid intensification to 95 kt (176 km/h), is expected as it passes over the Yaeyama islands.

The system will then gradually weaken and begin to track northwestward. This track will bring In-Fa along the northern tip of Taiwan and into mainland China on Saturday.

https://www.windy.com/-Wind-accumulation-gustAccu?gustAccu,28.004,117.664,6,internal

Update 18th September 2.00 p.m. UTC

Valid: Fri 18 Sep 2020 06:00 to Sat 19 Sep 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 17 Sep 2020 22:48
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

A level 3 is issued for a confined area in W Greece for severe convective wind gusts.

A level 1 and level 2 are issued for larger areas of Greece for severe convective wind gusts and excessive convective precipitation.

A level 1 and level 2 are issued for parts of Morocco, Portugal, Spain, S France for excessive convective precipitation, severe convective wind gusts and large hail. In coastal areas, tornadoes are not ruled out.

SYNOPSIS

A blocking anticyclone stretches from the North Atlantic Ocean to Romania. It is flanked to the SW by a cut-off low near Portugal, to the N by a strong zonal flow over Scandinavia, to the NE by another cut-off low in W Russia and to the SE by a suptropical cyclone over the Ionian Sea. Overall, the configuration somewhat resembles an "omega" pattern.
While a surge of polar air advances to the Black Sea in the wake of the eastern cut-off low, very warm air creates still summer-like conditions to the southwest of the axis of highest pressure / geopotential.

DISCUSSION

... Greece and surrounding sea waters ...

The subtropical storm 2020M01 over the Ionian Sea has possibly reached hurricane strength by Thursday evening while it maintains a slow eastward track towards the central west coast of Greece. The Thursday 12 UTC model runs havy largely converged to a track passing between the islands of Zakynthos and Kefalonia shortly before Friday 06 UTC (the beginning of this forecast period). WRF is the only remaining forecast model that still shows a southerly track over the open sea staying slightly southwest of Zakynthos.
Widespread hurricane-force wind gusts (>32 m/s) and extremely intense rainfall are very likely within a few tens of kilometers around the cyclone's center, and this risk extends for at least some hours into the current forecast period. It is not certain whether the innermost rain bands will also be accompanied by thunderstorms - there were only occasional flare-ups of electric activity on Thursday -, but with a few hundred J/kg CAPE in place the chances are high enough to meet our level 3 criteria in a confined area around the expected track of the cyclone's center. In inland areas, the wind risk diminishes betimes, but extraordinary rainfall accumulations, probably exceeding 200 mm in some regions with either prolonged upslope flow or beneath almost stationary and backbuilding rain bands, can easily cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash floods, mudslides and debris flows. Apart from the immediate vicinity of the cyclone center, another hot spot for abundant precipitation with embedded convection is expected to emerge on the northeastern side of the Greek mainland, where very moist and slightly unstable air from the Aegean Sea is persistenly advected against the mountains at the northern periphery of the circulation.
The further fate of the subtropical storm after Fri 12 UTC - either a quick filling over the Gulf of Patras, "disturbed" by the surrounding land mass, or a loop back southward into open sea waters with a slower filling or even partial recovery - will govern how quickly or slowly the wind risk decreases from Friday afternoon onwards, and how large the affected regions will be. The flooding risk is expected to continue into Saturday. For more details and updated information on this subtropical storm, please refer to our experimental 12-hourly Subtropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasts and to the official warnings from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS).

... central to S Italy and surrounding sea waters ...

Where not overworked by the subtropical storm, the very warm airmass in the central Mediterranean region features fairly steep lapse rates on top of particularly rich low-level moisture (2m dewpoints often between 20 and 24C). The Thursday 12 UTC soundings from Pratica di Mare, Brindisi and Trapani indicated CAPE between 1500 and 3000 J/kg, rising from north to south.
This CAPE reservoir will largely remain in place on Friday (only gently pushed south by northerly surface winds), but compensating subsidence from the subtropic storm creates a rather strong cap and should mostly suppress convective initiation. At best, only a few short-lived and struggling storms are imaginable over mountains that are high enough to penetrate the cap.

... Iberian Peninsula, France ...

Ahead of the western cut-off low, a fairly strong southerly flow advects steep lapse rates from NW Africa and the Spanish highlands on top of rich coastal moisture. The resulting CAPE will probably reach 1000-2000 J/kg along the Spanish east coast, while some hundred or locally up to 1000 J/kg may also develop further inland, depending on how much moisture can be advected inland and how effective the counteracting mixing processes will be. Increasing mid-level flow drives 0-6 km shear to 15-25 m/s.
The most likely focus for storm initiation are a diffuse cold front and a superimposed mid-level vorticity maximum that cross the eastern half of Spain from SW to NE. Considering a considerable cap, first storms are expected to form either over the mountains or to root down from Altocumulus levels around noon near the western edge of the drawn level 2 area. The CAPE-and-shear overlap allows well-organized storms, including upscale growth into one or several MCSs with a main risk of severe wind gusts at their leading edge(s) and excessive rain. Tail-end storms will most likely move along the east coast or stay just offshore, they can turn supercellular and produce large to very large hail plus one or two tornadoes (considering low cloud bases and enhanced 0-1 km shear in the sea breeze regime).
Convection will gradually weaken after sunset while it spreads into France. If storms stay still surface-based, some severe weather events are also still possible in the French Pyrenees forelands.
The most impressive mid-level wind maximum overspreads SE Spain in the afternoon to evening and creates 0-6 km shear even up to 30 m/s with strongly veering wind profiles. Convection forming in this environment could produce a few extreme hail and wind events. However, the onset of synoptic subsidence makes convective initiation increasingly unlikely by then. Nonetheless, monitoring of this area until the evening is recommended.

Behind the cold front, lapse rates are weaker, but moisture from the Atlantic is advected far inland and daytime heating creates a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Under still enhanced vertical wind shear, scattered and rather low-topped, daytime-driven convection is expected. Ths strongest storms may organize into multi- and perhaps a few supercells and produce heavy rain, isolated severe wind gusts and marginally large hail. Again, a tornado is not ruled out in coastal areas, where cloud bases are lowest.

Update 17th September 10.30 a.m. UTC

A rare Cyclone Ianos is currently moving eastward, toward the Greek western coastal area and should be close to it by Friday morning.
Strengthening is expected within the next 18–24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 km/h (48.5 knots) with higher gusts.

Ianos will cause heavy rainfall, up to 400 mm in some areas, which can result in flash floods. Damaging winds are expected across the islands of Zakynthos and Kefalonia and the coastal regions near the Gulf of Patras and the western Peloponnese.
There is a risk of tornadoes developing.

Update 16th September 1.30 p.m. UTC

Valid: Wed 16 Sep 2020 09:00 to Wed 16 Sep 2020 21:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 16 Sep 2020 09:05
Forecaster: ESTOFEX

A Mediterranean convectively-driven cyclone has formed across the Central Mediterranean Sea. At 06 UTC, the Dvorak method for estimating storm intensity yields a T-number between 2.5 and 3. This suggests an approximate central pressure of around 1002 mb and sustained wind speeds of around 20 m/s.

A forecast track and intensity evolution based on a consensus of numerical weather prediction models including GFS, ECMWF and ICON is presented in the graphic.

The models are initially in fairly good agreement and predict a rather quick intensification during the next 36 hours until above hurricane speed, aided by high sea surface temperatures near 27C and a lack of relatively dry air at mid-levels.

The models start to diverge late on Thursday and on Friday when ICON steers the cyclone towards Northwestern Greece, while ECMWF predicts landfall on the Peloponnesos, and GFS keeps the cyclone just offshore before it turns to a southeasterly track.

Regardless of the exact scenario, very high accumulations of rain, locally between 200 and 400 mm are expected across the Peloponnesos and possibly parts of Central Greece and Attica late on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

https://www.windy.com/-Wind-accumulation-gustAccu?gustAccu,35.165,14.601,6,internal

Update May 11th 2022, 12.00 p.m. UTC

Currently located near 15.7N 81.1E is moving northwestward at 4 knots (7,5 km/h). Maximum sustained winds are near 40 knots (74 km/h).

The system is expected to come near the coast of Andhra Pradesh on Wednesday, however, it is unlikely for it to make landfall. Forecast indicates that Asani will slowly recurve north-northeastwards and move along Narsapur, Yanam, Kakinada, Tuni and Visakhapatnam coasts and emerge into the west-central Bay of Bengal where it will weaken.

Update May 10th 2022, 11.30 a.m. UTC

Tropical Cyclone Asani, currently located near 14.9N 82.3E, is moving westward at 11 knots (20 km/h). Maximum sustained winds are near 65 knots (120 km/h).

It is expected that Asani will reach the north Andhra coast and adjoining Odisha coast. Once the cyclone returns back into the Bay of Bengal, it will weaken as it drifts to the northern Bay of Bengal.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall can be expected in certain areas in north coastal Andhra for the next two days.

Update May 9th 2022, 12.30 p.m. UTC

Located near 14.4N 85.5E, Tropical Storm Asani is moving towards the northwest at 8 knots (15 km/h). Maximum sustained winds are near 60 knots (111 km/h).

The forecast indicates that the system will continue its track toward the northwest and turn poleward near Visakhapatnam. Asani will weaken steadily during this period, push into the Bay of Bengal where it will accelerate toward Bangladesh and then continue its weakening and eventually dissipate over the northern Bay of Bengal.

https://www.windy.com/-Wind-accumulation-gustAccu?gustAccu,6.730,80.640,5,internal

Update: 19th of December, 10.00 a.m. UTC

Cyclone Yasa, currently located near 21.7S 178.0W, is moving toward the southwest at 15km/h (8 knots).
The system is not directly impacting the island nation of Tonga but it is close enough to bring gale-force winds to the Tongatapu island group.

Maximum sustained winds are 85 km/h (45 knots).

Yasa is expected to steadily weaken throughout the weekend and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by the beginning of the next week.

Update: 18th of December, 10.00 a.m. UTC

Yasa, located near 18.6S 178.6W, has rapidly weakened. Moving near 11 km/h (6 knots) southwestward to southward.

Maximum sustained winds are near 139 km/h (75 knots).

It is forecasted that Yasa will steadily weaken.

Update: 17th of December, 9.30 a.m. UTC

Located near 16.30S 178.48E, Yasa has made landfall, earlier than it was expected, on Bua, Vanua Levu, Fiji as Category 4 hurricane-equivalent. The system is moving southeast at 18 km/h (9.7 knots).

The cyclone is forecasted to be located about 25 km west-northwest of Koro or about 130 km north-east of Suva today and about 80 km east of Moala or 230 km east of Suva tomorrow morning.

Fiji's government ordered a nationwide curfew on Thursday. A potentially devastating cyclone is expected to unleash powerful winds and flooding.

Update: 16th of December, 9.30 a.m. UTC

Yasa has significantly intensified to a Category 5 hurricane-equivalent strength. Located near 14.6S 174.1E, the system moves near 11km/h (6 knots).

Maximum sustained winds are 260 km/h (140 knots).

Yasa is expected to weaken before it approaches the main islands of Fiji on Thursday evening. It is forecasted to reach the northern island of Venua Levu on early Friday morning with maximum sustained winds near 220 km/h (120 knots).

Additional weakening is then expected as the cyclone emerges to the south of the islands on Saturday morning.

Update: 15th of December, 10.00 a.m. UTC

Located at 14.9S 173.0E, Yasa has strengthened to a Category 3 hurricane-equivalent. Yasa is slowly tracking eastward at 6 knots and is expected to continue this general motion.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 105 knots.

Yasa is expected to be near Category 3 hurricane-equivalent as it passes between the main Fijian islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu.

Update: 14th of December, 1.00 p.m. UTC

Cyclone Yasa, currently located at 15.7S 172.3 E, is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 km/h (3 knots).

The system is expected to gain strength and reach hurricane-equivalent strength by Tuesday morning and begin to move toward the southeast.
Currently, it is forecasted for Yasa to near Category 3 hurricane-equivalent strength as it passes very narrowly to the southwest of the Fijian island of Viti Levu on Friday night.

The system should not make a direct impact on the island but tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the island, affecting the cities of Nadi and Suva.

https://www.windy.com/-Wind-accumulation-gustAccu?gustAccu,-18.448,174.880,6,internal

Update 21th of August 2021, 6.00 pm UTC

Grace has downgraded to a tropical storm. Currently located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 99.5 West, Grace is moving westward near 11 knots (20 km/h). This general motion is expected into early Sunday.

The system will move over central and west-central Mexico through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 45 knots (75 km/h). Rapid weakening is expected due to the motion over the mountains of central and west-central Mexico. Grace is forecasted to weaken to a tropical depression later today and dissipate by early. Sunday.

Update 20th of August 2021, 1.00 pm UTC

Grace has downgraded to a Tropical Storm. Located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 93.3 West, the system is moving toward the west near 14 knots (26 km/h). A westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next day or two.

TS Grace is forecasted to move across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today, and then make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico this evening or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 59 knots (110 km/h). Some strengthening is expected prior to landfall, and the system is expected to regain hurricane strength this morning.

After landfall, the system should begin to rapidly weaken as it moves into the mountains of central Mexico.

Update 19th of August 2021, 1.00 pm UTC

Located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 87.9 West, Hurricane Grace made landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Grace is moving toward the west near 15 knots (28 km/h). Westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday, a turn toward the west to west-southwest is expected.

Grace is forecasted to move across the Yucatan Peninsula today and move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico late tonight through Friday. The system is likely to make a second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 knots (120 km/h). Some weakening is expected as Grace moves across Yucatan before re-intensification as the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
Grace is forecasted to be a Hurricane when it makes the second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico.

Update 18th of August 2021, 2.30 pm UTC

Tropical Store Grace, located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 80.9 West, is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 knots (26 km/h). The motion towards the west to the west-northwest is expected for the next several days.

The system is forecasted to continue to move near the Cayman Islands laters this morning. The landfall is expected in the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico on early Thursday and to move into the southwest Gulf of Mexico early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 55 knots (100 km/). It is expected that Grace will strengthen into a hurricane later today with possible strengthening prior to reaching the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.

A Hurrican Warning is in effect for Yucatan Peninsula.
The system will bring heavy rainfall that can lead to flash and urban flooding.

https://www.windy.com/cs/-Maximální-poryvy-gustAccu?gustAccu,19.041,-108.896,5,i:pressure,internal

Valid: Thu 28 Oct 2021 06:00 to Fri 29 Oct 2021 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 27 Oct 2021 18:47
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 2 was issued across southern Sicily, southern Ionian Sea, Tyrrhenian Sea, and Sardinia for extreme rainfall.

A level 1 was issued across the Ionian and Tyrrhenian Sea region for extreme rainfall and to a lesser extent tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued across western Portugal and north-western Spain for extreme rainfall and to a lesser extent tornadoes.

DISCUSSION

Low geopotential extends across the Mediterranean, with mid-level vorticity maxima across the Balearic Islands and Turkey. South of Italy, a warm-core subtropical storm has developed that is expected to move northward during the period, likely reaching southern Italy at Friday morning. Central Europe is affected by mid-level ridging, whereas a lifting trough enters western Europe.

At lower levels, rich moisture is present across the Mediterranean and along a frontal boundary that extends from west Iberia towards Wales and England. CAPE is expected to be rather low due to weak lapse rates.

DISCUSSION

Ionian Sea, Tyrrhenian Sea, southern Italy and Sardinia and Corsica

Heavy rain is expected during the period due to ongoing thunderstorm activity in a moist, almost saturated air mass. One focus will be a convergence zone across the Tyrrhenian Sea, with a moist easterly low-level flow to the east that partly spreads upslope across Sardinia and Corsica. Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be centered in the southern parts of the area, where steeper mid-level lapse rates and lower equilibrium level temperature are forecast.

South of Italy, the subtropical storm is expected to move northward. Models indicate that MLCAPE will increase to the east and south of this storm and clusters of thunderstorms are forecast, whereas weak lightning activity is likely close to the center, where CAPE is low. Main threat is extreme rainfall, also due to deep warm clouds within the south-easterly low-level flow that enters the storm. Additionally, tornadoes are not ruled out due to strong low-level vertical wind shear. The potential threat will likely continue on Friday.

Western Portugal and Spain

A slow moving frontal boundary enters western Europe. Moist air will spread northward along the boundary, while steep lapse rates spread east in its wake. An overlap is not likely, and MLCAPE is expected to be low. Main threat will be excessive rain along the frontal rain band that enters western Iberia late in the peroid. Additionally, low-level vertical wind shear around 10 m/s is expected along the coasts that will overlap with weak CAPE. A tornado is not excluded.

Balearic Islands, Cyprus

Below the centers of mid-level troughs, steep lapse rates affect these areas, and some deeper storms can develop due to rich low-level moisture and low-level convergence. Weak vertical wind shear is expected, and waterspouts are forecast along the land-sea-breeze convergence zones.

https://www.windy.com/-Wind-accumulation-gustAccu?gustAccu,36.932,8.833,5,internal

Update 21th August 1:00 p.m. UTC

Tropical Storm Genevieve was located near 24.3N 114.3W. Currently moving toward the west-northwest near 17 km/h (9 knots) and this motion is expected to continue during the next few days, away from the Baja California peninsula.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 km/h (46 knots) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 130 km/h. Genevieve will continue its weakening and become a tropical depression by tonight.

Large swells generated by Genevieve will continue to affect the coast of the southern and central Baja California peninsula through Friday.

Update 20th August 2:30 p.m. UTC

Located at 23.0N 111.0W Hurricane Genevieve is moving toward the northwest near 13 km/h (7 knots). This motion is expected to continue through Saturday. The center of the hurricane is forecasted to pass just to the southwest and west of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula today and then move away.

Maximum sustained winds decreased to 130 km/h (70 knots). Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 km.

Further weakening is expected today and throughout the weekend. However, Genevieve will remain a hurricane through today while it passes to the southwest and west of the southern Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane conditions are in effect for the warning area. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over southern Baja California.

Heavy rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Large swells generated by Genevieve will affect portions of the west-central coast Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula.

https://www.windy.com/-Hurricane-tracker/hurricanes?gustAccu,22.999,-115.389,6,internal

Update 19th August 1:30 p.m. UTC

Hurricane Genevieve, located at 20.6N 109.4W, is moving towards the north-northwest with forward speed 15 km/h (8 knots). A turn toward the northwest is expected and this motion will continue through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 185 km/h (100 knots) with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 55 km from the center. Genevieve is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is expected on Thursday and Friday.

The center of the hurricane is forecasted to move near but just southwest of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula tonight and on Thursday, then move away on Friday.

Portions of southern Mexico are affected by large swells generated by Genevieve. These swells will spread northward to the Baja California peninsula through Thursday.

Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Baja California peninsula.

Update 18th August 10 a.m. UTC

Located at 17.4N 107.1W, Genevieve is moving near 28 km/h (15 knots) toward the northwest, and this motion parallel to but well offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico is forecasted to continue for the next day or so.

Forward speed should decrease early Thursday. The center of the hurricane is forecasted to move to the southwest of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to ** 185 km/h** ( knots) with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 km. Hurricane Genevieve has strengthened into hurricane category 3. Additional rapid strengthening is forecasted for the next 12 to 24 hours.

Large swells are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico and will spread along the coast of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula by Wednesday. Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for this area.

Update 17th August 3.00 p.m. UTC

Currently located at 14.3N 103.0W, Genevieve has reached hurricane strength. Hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest near 30 km/h (16 knots), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the northwest and a decrease in forward speed is expected until Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are 120 km/h (65 knots) with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 km from the center.

Genevieve is forecasted to move parallel to but offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico in the following days.

Large swells will begin affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico today and will spread northward.

https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satellite?satellite,22.634,-113.302,6,internal

With approaching winter, cities get covered by a lid, which is called inversion. Generally, the temperature inversion means an increase of temperature with altitude instead of the temperature getting colder.

Cold air is heavier than warm air so the cooler air stays close to the ground, while inversion at its upper limit prevents the air from mixing and heat from higher and warmer layers from reaching the ground.
With sufficient humidity, inversions are accompanied by fog or low clouds.
These low clouds can be observed in a Satellite layer as yellow clouds.

Acting as a lid, inversion traps pollutants released into the air by humans – combustion in industry, heating or transport. This can result in dangerously high pollutant concentrations, creating a smog situation.

Track the main air pollutants such as CO, NO2, SO2, and particulate matter PM2.5 and PM10 with Air quality stations. Together with Windy weather forecast data and real-time reported values, Windy users have a complete picture of the air pollution in their area.

Update 21th of August 2021, 6.00 pm UTC

Hurricane Henri was located near latitude 35.4 North, longitude 21.8 West. The system is moving north-northeastward at 15 knots (28 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Sunday. Henri is forecasted to decrease in forward speed.

Henri is expected to make landfall on Long Island or in southern New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 knots (120 km/h). Some strengthening is expected tonight but the system should weaken before landfall on Sunday. Henri is forecasted to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of Long Island and southern New England.

https://www.windy.com/-Wind-accumulation-gustAccu?gustAccu,36.483,-77.838,6,internal

Update: 10th of June, 7:00 A.M. UTC

Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristobal has made its way northward, across Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, and now located in Wisconsin, 43.5N 90.4W. Maximum sustainable winds are 55 km/h (30 knots) with movement 50 km/h (27 knots).

The expected motion is toward Lake Superior and then to Ontario, Canada.

Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for parts of the Midwest and western Great lakes due to rainfall. Winds gusting over 72 km/h (39 knots) on Wednesday over Chicagoland and areas neighboring with western Great Lakes.

Update: 9th of June, 7:00 A.M. UTC

Tropical depression Cristobal is moving across Central Arkansas, located at 34.8N 92.4W.

With maximum sustained wind speed 45 km/h (24 knots), it's moving toward the north-northwest near 28 km/h (15 knots). It is expected to accelerate over the next 48 hours, transitioning Cristobal into an extratropical cyclone.

Gusty winds are expected on Tuesday night and Wednesday over parts of the Midwest and western Great Lakes. Heavy rainfall will spread from Arkansas to the western Great Lakes through Wednesday morning.

Update: 8th of June, 3:00 P.M. UTC

Tropical depression Cristobal with a position at 32.5N 91.8W continues to push heavy rains with gusty winds on central Gulf to Lower Mississippi Waley. Maximum sustainable winds are 55 km/h (30 KT), movement is 24 km/h (13 KT).

It is expected to bring flooding rain to areas, where heavier rains occur, strong winds with possible isolated tornadoes as it moves from South to the Midwest till Tuesday.

Update: 8th of June, 7:00 A.M. UTC

Cristobal reached the coasts on Sunday evening and hit the southern Louisiana with maximum sustainable winds 80 km/h (43 KT) and heavy rains 12 inches (30 cm).

The storm also caused spawning a tornado in Florida. The landfall was between the mouth of the Mississippi river and island resort of Grand Isle.

Storm is now moving further inland, the threats of heavy rainfall and surge flooding still remains active for Monday as well. Remnants are expected to move northward into the upper Midwest with heavy rain and gusty winds.

Winds have weakened slightly to 72 km/h (39 KT) over the past several hours and this should continue as it moves farther inland.

Update: 7th of June, 3:00 P.M. UTC

Storm Cristobal with maximum sustainable winds 83 km/h (45 KT) will arrive to Gulf Coast today, storm has been travelling at speed of 18 km/h (10 KT).

Warnings for tropical storm and storm surge have been issued already, the threat is heavy rainfall, surge flooding, gusty winds and tornadoes. Tornado watch is issued for the southern Mississippi and southern Alabama.

Storm surges warnings are active for areas from Mississippi River east to Ocean Springs, Mississippi.

Mentioned conditions are expected to preserve till Monday as the storm lingers along the northern Gulf Coast.

Update: 4th of June, 1:00 P.M. UTC

Tropical storm Cristobal is currently located at 17.8N 91.2W, maximum sustained winds decreased to 65 km/h (35 knots). It continues to move slowly inland and is forecasted to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico.

As it will re-encounter a warm ocean surface, it will restrengthen and accelerate northward over the weekend and reach the Gulf Coast of the United States by Sunday evening.

Cristobal made its landfall over 24 hours ago. It has brought damaging and deadly flooding and is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts over southern Mexico and part of the Yucatan Peninsula and extending along the Pacific coast.

Update: 3rd of June, 10:00 A.M UTC

Tropical storm Cristobal which has formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, 19.0N 92.1W, is moving with a pace of 2 knots with maximum sustained wind speed 92,7 km/h (50 knots) and gusts 111,2 km/h (60 knots).

The storm stays in the vicinity of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. It will weaken to a tropical depression on Thursday and intensify to a tropical storm near 19.6N 91.1W on Friday and is expected to move slowly to the U. S. Gulf Coast later this weekend.

Cristobal is a part of a larger Central American Gyre circulation and is expected to continue to bring heavy rainfall to parts of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador which could bring life-threatening flooding and mudslides.

https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satellite?satellite,48.807,-91.055,5,internal

Update 23rd September 7:30 a. m.

Located near 43.4N 63.5W, Teddy has become a post-tropical cyclone. The system is moving toward the north-northeast near 30 km/h (16 knots), this general motion is expected to continue for the next day.

The center will move over eastern Nova Scotia later today, and then near or over Newfoundland by tonight, and be east of Labrador on Thursday.

**Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 hm/h (65 knots) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is likely today, however, Teddy will remain a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near and over Nova Scotia.

Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada.

Update 22nd of September, 9:30 a.m.

Hurricane Teddy regained its strength and is again a strong Category 2 hurricane currently nearing Nova Scotia, which should start to feel the hurricane conditions in a few hours.

Maximum sustainable winds are now 155 km/h (100 mph).

Teddy is expected to become a post-tropical storm when it approaches the region, bringing heavy rain and strong winds.

Update 21st of September, 9:30 a.m.

Teddy will move east of Bermuda today, affecting the island with tropical-storm-force winds that may lasts till the Monday evening.

Maximum sustainable winds are 155 km/h (100 mph). During the late Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy will affect Atlantic Canada with threat of strong winds and storm surge.

Tropical storm watch is in effect for Nova Scotia and Atlantic Canada.

Update 20th of September, 10.00 a.m.

Hurricane Teddy, located near 28.0N 62.0W is moving toward the northwest near 19 km/h (5 knots). This general motion is expected to continue this morning local time and then a turn toward the north is expected tonight and will last for the next couple of days.
Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday night, the center will pass east of the island Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 185 km/h (100 knots) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane. Gradual weakening is forecasted for the next day or two but remains a powerful pot-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early next weak. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 130 km from the center.

The Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada will be affected by large swells that could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Update: 19th of September, 2:00 p.m.

Teddy is positioned about 605 miles southeast of Bermuda and it is expected to move east of Bermuda late Sunday or Monday. The storm is currently packing winds of 205 km/h (125 mph).

Hurricane should become a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it nears parts of Atlantic Canada next week.

Th threats are large swells, that may affect portions of Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, east coast of United States and Atlantic Canada.

Located at 21.6N 55.4W, Hurricane Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 19 km/h (10 knots) and this motion is expected for the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the north by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 215 km/h (116 knots) with higher gusts. Right now Teddy is a hurricane category 4. A decrease in strength is expected during the next day. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 95 km from the center.

Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda this weekend, being closet to it on Sunday or Monday. The exact details of Teddy's track and intensity are not yet known.

The Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States will be affected by large swell which can cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

https://www.windy.com/-Pressure-pressure?pressure,41.607,-75.762,5,internal

Valid: Thu 01 Oct 2020 06:00 to Fri 02 Oct 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 30 Sep 2020 18:58
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued across south-eastern Russia and from southern to western Ukraine for heavy rain.

A level 1 was issued across the Ionian Sea into the southern Adriatic for heavy rain.

A level 1 was issued across the Ligurian Sea into southern France for heavy rain.

A level 1 was issued for southern Turkey mainly for large hail and heavy rain.

SYNOPSIS

A closed mid-level vortex centered across Romania is slightly connected to low geopotential across north-western Europe that steers it towards south-east Poland on Thursday. Cyclogenesis is expected over eastern Ukraine with a moist, slightly unstable air mass spreading from the Black Sea to the central Urkaine. Stable conditions are present in the range of mid-level ridging across northern Europe and at the anticyclonically sheared flank of the polar jet that affects parts of the Mediterranean. Late in the period, an intense digging short-wave trough rotates around the Atlantic vortex. Including very moist air masses, explosive cyclogenesis over the Bay of Biscay with a potentially dangerous storm ahead is still indicated by the latest model runs.

DISCUSSION

Eastern Black Sea, south-eastern Russia, and southern to western Ukraine

Ahead of the cyclogenesis across western Romania, an increasing south-easterly low-level flow evolves across south-eastern Russia and Ukraine. A band of rich low-level moisture will advect from the Black Sea towards western Ukraine. Some low-level convergence is expected in response to QG lift due to warm air advection.

Model soundings indicate that the moist air is slightly unstable with skinny CAPE profiles and rich low-level moisture. Additionally, high relative humidity is expected throughout the troposphere. Weak CIN and some low-level convergence along the land-sea-breeze are expected to support storms early in the forecast period across the Black Sea moving towards the shores of south-eastern Russia and southern Ukraine. Strong low-level flow is forecast to support backbuilding storms with a potential of heavy rain. During the day, diurnal heating will result in some more storms forming across Ukraine. Again, humid profiles and backbuilding is expected to support heavy rain until the storms weaken late in the period, whereas continuing activity is forecast across the Black Sea.

Southern Turkey

A short-wave trough travels across Turkey with a strong mid-level flow. Some QG lift is expected during the day. Focus for local initiation is the sea-breeze convergence over southern Turkey where rich moisture spreads onshore. Weak CIN and high CAPE are present, together with strong deep-layer shear and straight hodographs. Therefore, initiation is not ruled out with storm organization to multicells and supercells. Large hail and heavy rain is the main threat with these storms. In the evening, storms will rapidly decay as mid-level subsidence and low-level stabilization is expected.

Central Mediterranean

A mid-level short-wave trough travels rapidly across the central Mediterranean during the day. QG lift affects a moist and unstable air mass with a rather weak CIN across the Ionian Sea in the evening and night hours. Storms are forecast to initiate during the evening that will likely cluster ahead of the short-wave trough. Vertical wind shear is strong enough for multicells, and heavy rain is expected until the end of the period.

Southern France to north-western Italy

Ahead of the digging trough over the Bay of Biscay, a strong low-level southerly flow evolves across the western Mediterranean, with a convergence zone almost parallel to the flow. Especially over the Ligurian Sea, low-topped CAPE is expected due to rich low-level moisture and modest lapse rates. Backbuilding storms are forecast capable of producing heavy rain until the end of the period.

Bay of Biscay

Explosive cyclogenesis is forecast at the end of the period. The latest models indicate that steep lapse rates at the cyclonically sheared flank of the mid-level jet will not overlap with rich moisture at low-levels. Current thinking is that a strongly-forced convective line will not develop along the cold front. However, the situation needs to be monitored, since very strong vertical wind shear can result in a severe narrow cold-frontal rain band with high winds and tornadoes in case of a sufficient overlap of moisture and lapse rates.

https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?rain,46.438,-3.032,4,internal

Update: 22nd of July 2021, 12.00 p.m. UTC

Located near latitude 22.6 North 108.3 East, Cempaka is moving west-southwestward at 6 knots (11 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 knots (45 km/h).

On a forecast track, Cempaka will move southward over the Gulf of Tonkin. The system might regain some strength but it is not likely to regain the strength of a tropical storm.

Turn towards the east and then passing across the island of Hainan is expected. Unfavorable conditions over the South China Sea will prevent any further development and the system might degenerate into a remnant low on weekend.

Update: 21st of July 2021, 1.00 a.m. UTC

Cempaka has made landfall in the coastal area of south China's Guangdong Province on Tuesday night. The system continues to weaken as it moves westward, across Guangdong province.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 25 knots (45 km/h).

The system is expected to move southward after it passes the Leizhou Peninsula to the north over the next couple of days. On Friday, Cempaka will emerge over the Gulf of Tonkin and may restrengthen into a tropical storm.
Cempaka will move eastward over the island of Hainan on Sunday and emerge back into the South China Sea on Sunday where it will degenerate into a remnant low.

Update: 20th of July 2021, 10.30 a.m.

Currently located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 112.3 South, Cempaka has strengthened into a typhoon, moving towards the northwest at 1 kt (1,9 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 kt (130 km/h).

The system is forecasted to make landfall 130 NM west-southwest of Hong Kong. After landfall, the interaction with the terrain will cause Cempaka to begin rapidly weaken.

Typhoon will bring heavy, flooding rains to southeastern portions of the country through much of this week.

https://www.windy.com/-Hurricane-tracker/hurricanes?gustAccu,20.128,103.645,6,internal