@sv-shameless

It is known that GFS is not very good at predicting track and wind speed of hurricanes. The model of the ECMWF is better in particular for the trajectory forecast.
NCEP use special model for hurricane forecast like HWRF. In these graphics AVNO is GFS. You see that it is far from the official (OFCL) predicted track which is quite close to ECMWF prediction.

AAFC5540-C4EB-48C8-85D9-8EC40680A895.jpeg

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HWRF/tcall.php