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Why is Wind speed in hurricanes so wrong?
Question: Why reported wind speed of hurricane is much higher than value forecasted by Windy?
Answer: Windy displays ECMWF or GFS global forecast model. Neither of them is capable to predict exact peak values.
- Modeling: Numerical model computes grid that has finite resolution in both space and time (~10km in space horizontally, ~100-1000m vertically, ~1-6h in time). Peak values are smoothed, because of coarse grid resolution.
- Analysis of input data: Calculations are based on measurements. They come from stations, radars, satellites and other sensors. These sensors are not always reliable, so extremal measurements can be considered as errors during data assimilation and thrown away to avoid damaging the computation.
- Numerical models are not good at prediction of local extreme values and phenomena. Examples: tornadoes, convective storms, hails, single convective clouds, single orographic clouds, extreme wind speed in storms or hurricanes.
- Numerical models are good at prediction of averege and "smooth" values. Examples: average wind in last 3 hours, temperature, humidity, pressure field.
RE: Propose a NEW LAYER / FEATURE You'd like on Windy
Altitude and coverage of convective clouds (cumuli) ...I will implement it one day :-) but if there are more people wanting this, please upvote!
RE: Premium subscribers will get premium support
@triggernometry @auweatherwatcher @emilyyyZzz They are girls and we call them so. We use such naming in common language. We do not have anonymous helpdesk, but we have Kori and Petra ...and unlike Alexa or Siri, they are real ;-)
RE: And yes, we can...
This topic seems to be explosive. I understand that many people are against
"global warming religion", but think about it pragmatically.
If we call "Warming" the situation when "climate is changing rapidly and it is caused by mankind",
then there are 4 options:
A. Warming is not true and we believe it is not true
B. Warming is not true and we believe it is true
C. Warming is true and we believe it is true
D. Warming is true and we do not believe it is true
If we want to do any action we should behave pragmatically, economically, rationally.
Consider the damage control. There are 2 faults among these options: B. and D.
If B. is our reality we may waste our energy and money uselessly and our children will laugh at us in future.
If D. is our case, it means that we are borrowing our wealth from future generation, our children will hate us.
From this point of view the "panic" about Warming is completely understandable.
If we think about what is caused by humans: Daily weather is caused by humans. If you live in big city,
the temperature, moisture, evaporation, albedo, everything is massively influenced by human and you can measure it.
If you look at countryside from air, you can see that the terrain is completely changed by human. It also affects daily weather.
People have power to change the landscape, to destroy or plant whole forests.
Greenhouse hypothesis is about composition of atmosphere. I do not want to judge whether that hypothesis is true
or false. But people are moving fossil fuel from land to atmosphere. That is fact. One day all fossil fuel
will be moved from land to atmosphere, it will not magically disappear.
50000kg of airliners fuel means exactly 50000kg of waste. It is taken from land and put to air circulation.
Rising temperature is reality. Question is: Is it caused by our technical revolution? Nobody is sure, but there is correlation.
Do not cry, do not panic, just think about A, B, C, D.
RE: Despite premium subscription, ECMWF updated 10 hours ago...
@MolnAir Hi, we are sorry, this was a fault on our server, not a problem on ECMWF side. We had difficulties with data importing, so there remained the old forecast. Everything is up and running now.
On Premium subscriptions: we are trying to find a balance between keeping most of the features free and giving good added value to premium users. A year ago there were just donations (no added value for our contributors). This year we came up with better temporal resolution of the forecasts and it is likely that we will be adding more premium features or maybe shifting some existing features to premium to keep the product attractive for our subscribers. We are developing Windy for people and we are happy that a part of them (like you) is willing to pay for it. Thank you!
RE: Maximum altitude of the thermal (Potential of height of the Thermal - Mixed Layer Height)
@Alvarnegro Hi! Yes we are planning to add such features. Are you a paraglider?
Latest posts made by TZ
RE: Poor Radar FOREVER. Cancelling.
I compared Windy US radar with Accuweather US radar. It seems that Windy has worse spatial resolution. Maybe that it is the problem you are talking about. Downsampled data get smoothed. We will try to improve this.
RE: Can we use pictures, animations or videos from Windy in our TV, webpage, newspaper, project...
@ngkriz Allowed :-) Please send us your results. We are happy to see Windy used anywhere.
RE: Would like to see the HRRR model added
@danfarina Yes, we call it silent release :-) As soon as we consider that everything is ok, we will add it also to apps together with some other new features. Then we will give it more publicity. Feel free to use it and test it. If you find any errors, your feedback will be appreciated.
RE: Anomalie on Mexico 1 sep 2021
@vetacreativa Hi, this noise probably origins inside the radar sensor. All these images always come from one specific radar site that is exactly in the middle. It is error of the device. If you want to know more it would be good to ask some radar manufacturer.